UPDATE: The Markets, Crypto and Online Retailers

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: After booming stocks had their worst day of the year because of raging inflation, slowing economic growth, and a potential recession.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin and other major cryptos like ethereum also tumbled in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement. They’ve typically tracked the performance of growth stocks, which have gotten hammered on the prospect of higher interest rates.

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Almost every major online retailer reporting earnings with signs of a decline:

  • Wayfair shares cratered nearly 26% yesterday after announcing that its active customer count dropped 23.4% from a year ago.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond reported an 18% nosedive in online sales.
  • Etsy and eBay shares both dropped by double digits yesterday after giving weak guidance for the current quarter.
  • At least five senior executives from Meta’s fledgling e-commerce division have fled in the last six months.
  • Shopify shares plummeted about 15% on Thursday after posting much lower-than-expected earnings.

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UPDATE: The Markets, COVID and Home Prices

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: Yesterday was a tale of two markets. The Dow, which is home to blue-chip corporations like P&G, gained, while the NASDAQ, comprised of tech stocks, fell. Netflix is now the worst performing stock in the S&P this year.
  • Covid: The DOJ appealed a judge’s ruling that overturned a federal mask mandate for transportation. The move came at the suggestion of the CDC, which determined that people should still wear masks in indoor public transportation settings.
  • Homes: The median existing-home price in the US hit an all-time high of $375,300 in March, up 15% from the year before. With surging mortgage rates and higher home prices, the average borrower is paying ~38% more than they would have for the same home a year ago, according to Realtor.com.

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UPDATE: Domestic Stocks Fall Amid FOMC Comments

By Staff Reporters

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US. stocks faltered and were dragged down by losses in tech, as investors weighed remarks by Federal Reserve [FOMC] Governor Lael Brainard that indicated policymakers were ready to act more aggressively to rein in inflation. Investors also monitored reports indicating the U.S. and European Union are expected to unveil more sanctions against Russia on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 280 points after climbing for two straight trading sessions. The NASDAQ Composite plunged 2.3% to log its biggest drop in three weeks and erase gains from a tech rally that helped the index pop on Monday. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 2.56%, its highest level since May 2019.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Brainard, who is awaiting a confirmation vote to serve in the central bank’s number two role, said at a conference on Tuesday that the Fed can raise interest rates more aggressively to dampen the high rate of inflation felt by Americans, also noting that officials will likely start shrinking asset holdings in a about a month (a move that could have the effect of further raising long-term interest rates).

“Currently, inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks,” Brainard said. “The Committee is prepared to take stronger action if indicators of inflation and inflation expectations indicate that such action is warranted.”

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UPDATE: The NASDAQ, Elon Musk and Twitter

By Staff Reporters

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The NASDAQ composite booked its best day in more than a week after investors snapped up technology and communications shares on Elon Musk’s disclosure of a large stake in social media platform Twitter Inc. The NASDAQ, Dow industrials and S&P 500 all rose for a second straight trading day.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

What happened:

  • The NASDAQ Composite COMP, +1.90% finished up 271.05 points, or 1.9%, at 14,532.55. That’s the largest daily percentage gain since March 24, 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.30% added 103.61 points or 0.3%, closing at 34,921.88.
  • The S&P 500 SPX, +0.81% closed up 36.78 points, or 0.8%, at 4,582.64.

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UPDATE: First Quarter Stock Index Review & T-Bond Yields

By Staff Reporters

U.S. stocks fell Thursday afternoon to cap a quarter in which Federal Reserve monetary tightening and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have weighed on sentiment and has put the S&P 500 on track for its first quarterly loss in two years.

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How stock indexes performed?

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 336 points, or 1%, to about 34,893.
  • The S&P 500 was down 38 points, or 0.8%, at 4,564.
  • The NASDAQ Composite shed 107 points, or 0.7%, to trade near 14,335.

BONDS: The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.331%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was at 2.337% at one point in late trading Thursday. After a brief inversion, both yields were basically trading at the 2.34% level in the latest trading.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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HAPPY APRIL 1st 2022

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UPDATE: The Markets, Oil and T-Notes

By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: Stocks rose for a fourth day in a row Friday, closing out their biggest weekly gain since November 2020. The S&P 500 added 1.2%, bringing its weekly gain to 6.2%. The NASDAQ climbed 2.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%. Investors have welcomed the long-expected pivot from the Federal Reserve from stimulating the economy to fighting inflation, which began this week with its first interest rate increase since 2018.

OIL: The price of oil remains above $100 a barrel as investors monitor the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

10 Year Treasury Note: The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.15%.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

WINTER: Today is the last day of winter.

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#3: The Six Commandments of Value Investing (Part 1)

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The Six Commandments of Value Investing (Part 1)

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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The Six Commandments of Value Investing
3. The market is there to serve you, not the other way around.

Part 1
: The market is there to price stocks on a daily basis, but it doesn’t value them on a daily basis. In the long run (the yardstick here is years, not days or months) the market will value stocks, but in the short run stock price movements are random. 

Despite this randomness, the media will always find a rational explanation for a move. However, trying to understand randomness and predict stock movements in the short run is like trying to have an intelligent conversation with a two-year-old. It may be fun, but it will consume a lot of your time and energy, and the outcome is far from certain. 

Stock fluctuations should be looked upon as a natural and benign feature of the stock market, but only if you know what the asset is worth. To make Mr. Market serve us and not become its slave, here is what we do.

If we know a stock is worth $1, then if its price falls from 50 cents to 30 cents (a 40% decline), that’s a blessing for several reasons: The company can now buy back a lot more of its stock at lower prices, and we can add to our position. After all, it’s 40% cheaper. 

Here is the key, though: You have to make sure that what you thought was worth $1 is still worth $1.

To quote Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth.” How do you remain rational when Mr. Market has just smashed you in the face by repricing your $1 stock from 50 cents to 30 cents? Maybe Mr. Market is right and that company’s fair value was never really $1 but only 40 cents?

To remain rational, we focus on maximizing our Total IQ. I know we were not supposed to have math, especially this early in the book. But indulge me with this little equation: Total IQ = IQ x EQ (where EQ <=1)Before I explain I want to stress this point: Your IQ, EQ, and thus Total IQ will vary from stock to stock and from industry to industry.

Let’s start with IQ.

IQ – our intellectual capacity to analyze problems – will vary with the problem in front of us. Just as we breezed through some subjects in college and struggled with others, our ability to understand the current and future dynamics of various companies and industries will fluctuate as well. This is why we buy stocks that fall within our sphere of competence. We tend to stick with ones where our IQ is the highest.

As I have mentioned before but will continue to repeat: If investing were an exact science – a formulaic process by which you could (in a vacuum) constantly test and retest your hypotheses and repeat your results – then EQ, our emotional quotient, would be irrelevant.

If we were characters from Star Trek – with complete control over our emotions, like Mr. Spock, or lacking emotions entirely, like Lieutenant Commander Data – then our EQ wouldn’t matter. However, investing is not a science and we are humans. We have plenty of emotions, and thus EQ is a very important part of this equation.

Though we usually think about our capacity to analyze problems as being dependable and stable over time, it isn’t.

First, emotions distort probabilities. So, even if my intellectual capacity to analyze a problem is not impacted, my brain may be solving a distorted problem.

Second, my IQ is not constant, and my ability to process information effectively declines under emotional stress. I either lose the big picture or overlook important details. This dilemma is not unique to me; I’m sure it affects all of us to varying degrees.

A friend of mine who is a terrific investor, and who will remain nameless (though his name is George), once told me that he never invests in grocery store stocks because he can’t be rational when he holds them. If we spent some Freudian time with him, we’d probably discover that he experienced a traumatic childhood event at the grocery store (he may have been caught shoplifting a candy bar when he was eight), or he may have had a bad experience with a grocery stock early in his career. The reason for his problem is irrelevant, though. What is important is that he has realized that his high IQ will be impaired by his low EQ if he owns grocery stocks.

The higher my EQ is with regard to a particular company, the more likely my Total IQ will not degrade when things go wrong (or even when they go right). This is why in the little formula above, EQ cannot be greater than 1. In your most emotionally stable state (when EQ = 1), your Total IQ will equal your IQ.

There is a good reason why doctors don’t treat their own children: Their ability to be rational (properly weighing probabilities) may be severely compromised by their emotions. 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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UPDATE: The Stock Markets and IRS Online Taxpayer ID

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By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: The S&P 500 fell into a correction for the first time in two years, joining the NASDAQ Composite, as Russia sent troops into pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. The S&P 500 index ended down 1% at 4,304.76, below the correction level at 4,316.91, which would represent a 10% drop from its January 3rd record close. A correction is commonly defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10% (but not greater than 20%) from a recent peak. The last time the S&P 500 entered a correction was February 27th 2020, when the market was being whipsawed by fears about the outbreak of the COVID pandemic.

And, this bearish market isn’t sparing 2021 winners like Home Depot, which fell the most in nearly two years after supply-chain bottlenecks squeezed its margins. HD was the Dow’s biggest gainer last year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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IRS: According to a news release issued by the IRS, taxpayers now have the option to verify their identities during live, virtual interviews with agents. The agency stresses that no bio-metric data will be required for those interviews.

However, taxpayers once again have the option to verify their identity using ID.me’s facial recognition services. Addressing privacy concerns, the IRS says new requirements are in place to ensure that images provided will be deleted upon verification. That would apply to any new IRS accounts created and those where selfies have already been collected.

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