Stocks, Commodities, Japan & France

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 hit its seventh record close in a row today, its longest win streak since May. The NASDAQ was buoyed by big tech, while the DJIA fell.
  • Commodities: Oil climbed thanks to a decision by OPEC+ to boost crude production at a more modest rate than experts expected. Gold continued its record run, rising above $3,900 for the first time ever, while bitcoin hovered just below a new all-time high.
  • Japan and France: Japanese stocks rose after the country elected its first female prime minister, and French stocks dropped after its prime minister quit less than a month into the job.

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Stocks, Bonds and Commodities

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Stocks: Markets slowed along yesterday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ buoyed after a pivotal antitrust ruling for Alphabet pushed big tech stocks higher across the board.
  • Bonds: The 30-year Treasury pushed 5% yesterday as traders fret about the Fed’s independence and the odds of interest rate cuts.
  • Commodities: Oil sank on reports that OPEC+ is contemplating increasing its crude output next month, while gold reached yet another new record high as uncertainty swirling around the future of tariffs continued to rise. JPMorgan analysts now think the precious metal could climb as high as $4,250 by the end of next year.

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Commodities, Stock Markets and International Trade

By A.I.

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Trade: President Trump signed an executive order late yesterday unleashing a wave of new tariffs on 69 US trading partners that will go into effect on August 7th. Here’s a handy list of tariffs and their economic effects for anyone else having trouble keeping track of all these new numbers.

Markets: Stocks opened lower and kept falling thanks to a double whammy of new tariff rates and a shocking slowdown in the labor market, while bond yields tumbled.

Commodities: Gold jumped as the likelihood of a rate cut rose due to the latest jobs report, while oil sank on reports that OPEC+ may announce a crude production boost as soon as this weekend.

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Stocks, Bonds & Commodities

By A.I.

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DAILY UPDATE: Strong Labor Department as Stock Markets Soar Last Week but Stock and Oil Futures Drop Early Monday Morning

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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U.S. stock futures declined after the S&P 500 notched its longest winning streak in more than 20 years last week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down around 280 points, or 0.7%, as of 11 p.m. Eastern. S&P 500 futures and NASDAQ-100 futures were off about 0.8%.

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The labor market stayed strong. The US added 177,000 jobs in April, while unemployment stayed steady at 4.2%, new Labor Department data shows. That was slightly less job growth than the month before, but still more than expected, and it shows a resilient labor environment even as the president’s introduction of tariffs roiled the stock and bond markets and raised concerns about a recession. President Trump celebrated the news in a Truth Social post that once again urged the Fed to cut interest rates.

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Markets: Stocks soared like a balloon whose string a toddler couldn’t keep hold of yesterday. Unexpectedly strong jobs data for last month and reports that China is open to trade talks helped push the S&P 500 to its longest winning streak in more than 20 years (more on that later), erasing the losses from recent tariff turmoil. On its own impressive streak is Netflix, which hit an all-time high and finished its 11th day in the green for its longest positive run ever.

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Crude oil futures dropped more than 3% Sunday after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate production increases for a second straight month in June by 411K bbl/day.

U.S. WTI crude (CL1:COM) for June delivery recently traded -3.4% at $56.28/bbl and July Brent crude (CO1:COM) -3.2% at $59.34/bbl, with both front-month contracts touching their lowest levels since April 9th.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: OpenAI, FDA, Roche & Rite Aid as Stocks Soar

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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  • OpenAI would be open to buying Chrome if Google is forced by a federal court to sell the web browser, the company’s ChatGPT head said yesterday.
  • The FDA suspended milk quality tests in some dairy products due to reduced capacity stemming from federal workforce cuts, Reuters reported.
  • Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, is investing $50 billion in US manufacturing to circumvent President Trump’s tariffs, the company said yesterday.
  • Rite Aid is preparing to sell itself in pieces ahead of a possible second bankruptcy, Bloomberg reported.

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What’s up

  • Intel surged 5.54% on reports that the chipmaker plans to cut 20% of its workforce.
  • Oklo gained 8.60% after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced he’s stepping down as chairman of the board of the nuclear power startup.
  • Duolingo popped 10.01% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the language learning company, calling it a “best-in-class consumer internet asset.”
  • Cava climbed 6.29% due to an upgrade from analysts at Bernstein, who think the bowl slop stock will not only survive but thrive in an economic downturn.
  • Amphenol rose 8.21% thanks to impressive earnings for the high-speed cable company, coupled with a solid fiscal outlook.
  • Vertiv Holdings jumped 8.60% after the data center company posted an impressive quarterly profit and raised its fiscal forecast.
  • SAP rose 7.47% following the software stock’s strong profit performance last quarter.
  • Novavax soared 19.52% on the news that the FDA has asked for more clinical data about its Covid vaccine.

What’s down

  • Enphase Energy plunged 15.65% thanks to a big miss on both the top and bottom lines for the solar tech stock.
  • Going down: Elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide fell 6.64% on an earnings miss thanks to fewer orders from Chinese customers.
  • Online learning platform Chubb fell 2.17% after announcing a 38% decline in net income last quarter.
  • Baker Hughes may have beaten profit forecasts last quarter, but the oilfield operator’s revenue miss sent shares tumbling 6.44%.
  • Bristol Myers Squibb lost 2.59% after the pharma giant announced its schizophrenia drug Cobenfy performed poorly in Phase 3 trials.

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  • Stocks surged first thing this morning after President Trump said the media blew things out of proportion and that he has “no intention” of firing Jerome Powell. He also said he would be “very nice” to China in tariff negotiations.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also did some damage control, touting the opportunity for a “big deal” between the US and China.
  • The combination sent a relief rally sweeping through markets, and while the euphoria faded by mid-afternoon, all three indexes ended the day in the green.
  • Gold fell and bitcoin rose as investors took on more risk (see below), while oil dropped on reports that OPEC+ may hike its crude output after its meeting next month.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare Advantage Plans Down as Stocks Crash

By Staff Reporters

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Medicare Part C papers, glasses and stethoscope.

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Humana and other managed-care stocks were down sharply in trading Tuesday after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced an average 3.7% increase in revenue for Medicare Advantage plans in 2025. That amount is the same as the proposed increase the government had announced in January, but it came as a shock to investors who were hoping for a slight bump.

Humana  (HUM)  shares fell sharply in early Tuesday trading, while rivals UnitedHealth UNH and CVS Health  (CVS)  traded firmly in the red, as the health insurance industry received yet another blow to its 2024 profit forecasts. All three major health insurance groups have trailed the broader market this year, with Humana down nearly 25%, amid concern that profit margins will be hit by a surge in medical costs tied to a rise in elective procedures. Those procedures had been delayed by the Covid pandemic. 

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 37.96 points (0.7%) to 5,205.81; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 396.61 points (1.0%) to 39,170.24; the NASDAQ Composite slipped 156.38 points (1.0%) to 16,240.45.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield was up almost 3 basis points to 4.357%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.96 to 14.61.

Retailer, biotechnology, and regional bank shares were among the weakest performers Tuesday, leading a broad market slump in which declining stocks outnumber advancers by a greater than three-to-one ratio. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) lost 1.8% and settled at a two-week low. 

Energy companies, by contrast, extended recent strength behind an ongoing climb in WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures, which surpassed $85 per barrel for the first time since late October. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) advanced 2.1% and ended at a 5-½-month high. Oil prices have surged this year due to OPEC production cuts and concern over supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.

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2024: Easter Sunday Gasoline Pump!

HAPPY EASTER SUNDAY 2024

This ME-P was originally posted in 2014 and updated annually since then.

The median U.S. gas price is $3.49 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 29 cents lower than the national average. The top 10% of stations in the country average $6.09 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.92 per gallon. The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($3.02), Louisiana ($3.06) and Texas ($3.06).

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Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Corporate M&A Activity Increasing as Stock Markets End Mixed

By Staff Reporters

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Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity was down in 2023, but McKinsey says we should keep our chins up based on the strong final months of the year and economic optimism among professionals. For example, Global M&A activity last year totaled $3.1 trillion, dropping 16% from 2022, McKinsey found in a new report by senior partners Jake Henry and Mieke Van Oostende. But, the value of M&A activity in the fourth quarter increased 41% over Q3 and 37% year over year.

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Stocks were mixed yesterday, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ inching up and the Dow Jones dropping ahead of the release of key inflation data later this week. Viking Therapeutics, whose stock more than doubled after it reported positive results for its weight-loss drug trial in a bid to break into a sector dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 8.65 points (0.2%) to 5,078.18; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) fell 96.82 points (0.3%) to 38,972.41; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) gained 59.05 points (0.4%) to 16,035.30.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose about 1 basis point to 4.309%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) dropped 0.31 to 13.43.

Retailer strength helped lift the S&P Retail Select Industry Index (SPSIRE) 2.4% to its highest level in 22 months. Utility shares were also strong as the sector rebounded from the previous day’s slump. The small-cap Russell 2000® (RUT) jumped 1.3% to extend a nearly week-long rally and posted its second-highest close of the year.

In other markets, WTI crude oil (/CL) futures surged 1.4% and settled just under $79 per barrel, the market’s highest close since early November. Strength in oil reflects concern over conflict in the Middle East and expectations OPEC may extend production cuts beyond the first few months of 2024.

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DAILY UPDATE: Thanksgiving Travel Gas Prices Down – Narrow Traffic Lanes Safer – Walgreens Pharmacies Closed as the Stock Markets Roar

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Thanksgiving is a trading holiday. Both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq are closed. Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year, is a half day for the stock market. Both stock exchanges close at 1:00 p.m. ET, with eligible options trading until 1:15 p.m. Normal trading hours resume on the Monday after Thanksgiving, also known as Cyber Monday, when many online retailers host major sales.

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Thanks to plummeting prices at the pump, US drivers will save a collective $1.2 billion this Thanksgiving travel period, and day, compared to last year, according to GasBuddy. The average price per gallon is down nearly 46 cents from a year ago, and more than 50,000 stations now show gas prices at $2.99/gallon or less.

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Narrow traffic lanes are safer than wide ones. Researchers at Johns Hopkins analyzed more than 1,000 streets in seven major cities across the US and found that narrower roads mitigated traffic collisions in certain conditions. The study did not find a significant difference between roads 9-feet wide and those 10- or 11-feet wide, but it did conclude that traffic accidents increase 1.5x when a road widens from 9 feet to 12 feet. Traffic fatalities are the leading cause of death for Americans aged 1–54.

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Walgreens will close most of its pharmacies and stores on Thanksgiving Day for the first time in the company’s history, executives said last Thursday. The move to close more than 8,700 stores for the federal holiday comes as some Walgreens workers staged a three-day walkout this fall to push for improved working conditions and increased staffing numbers, Reuters reported.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended on Wednesday:

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 18.43 points (0.4%) at 4,556.62, near a four-month high close; the Dow Jones Industrial Average®(DJI) was up 184.74 points (0.5%) at 35,273.03; the NASDAQ Composite was up 65.88 points (0.5%) at 14,265.86.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 1 basis point at 4.41%, after earlier dropping to a two-month low under 4.37%.
  • CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.50 at 12.85.

Communications services and technology were among the strongest performers Wednesday. Food and beverage companies were also firm. Energy shares were among the weakest performers Wednesday behind a drop of over 1% in WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL). ), which fell following reports OPEC delayed a weekend meeting until November 30th, a possible reflection of cartel members struggling to reach consensus over production cuts. WTI crude ended just under $77 a barrel, down 19% from a 2023 high above $95 in late October.

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DAILY UPDATE: Rothification and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

REMINDER

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Starting in 2026, high-income earners over the age of 50 who make more than $145,000 can no longer make catch-up contributions to regular 401(k)s. Instead, those catch-ups will head to Roth accounts. That carries significant tax implications.

MORE: https://taxfoundation.org/blog/what-rothification-means-for-tax-reform/

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:

  • The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was down 25.56 points (0.6%) at 4,461.90; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 17.73 points at 34,645.99; the NASDAQ Composite was down 144.28 points (1.0%) at 13,773.61.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 2 basis points at 4.272%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.42 at 14.22.

While tech was the weakest performing sector Tuesday, consumer discretionary and communication services shares were also lower. Energy shares led sector gainers Tuesday as oil prices continued to rise.

The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) gained more than 2% and ended at its highest level since April 2019. WTI crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, extended gains to near $90 a barrel after OPEC, in a report, slightly increased its forecasts for global consumption in 2023 and 2024.

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DAILY UPDATE: About the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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Major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed, after the announcement of a surprise OPEC+ production cut sent crude oil prices to two-month highs and fueled inflation concerns that could keep the Federal Reserve in policy-tightening mode. This weekend, several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, announced production cuts totaling nearly 1.2 million barrels a day that are slated to start in May. In response, WTI crude futures soared above $80 a barrel. Word of the planned cuts also boosted expectations that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate again in May as the central bank extends efforts to tamp down inflation. The OPEC+ cuts “suggest more headline inflation pressure in the near-term,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. The potential for further waves of inflation will “keep central banks from declaring victory over excessive price gains,” he adds. “That’s another headwind for tech stocks and other ‘long duration’ equities that get more of their cash flow in the future than in the near term.”

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The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:

  • The S&P 500® Index was up 15.2 (0.4%) at 4124.51, the highest close since Feb. 15; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 327 (1.0%) at 33601.15; the NASDAQ Composite was down 32.45 (0.3%) at 12189.45.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.417%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.14 at 18.56.

Oil producers and other energy companies led gainers Monday. Health care stocks also outperformed. Consumer discretionary and real estate were among the laggards.

Among individual stocks, Tesla (TSLA) shares tumbled over 6% following reports the electric car-maker delivered just 423,000 vehicles in the first quarter. Analysts had expected 430,000, according to research firm FactSet.

Looking ahead, medical companies, especially vaccine makers, may be worth watching this week with the World Vaccine Congress taking place in Washington, D.C. Some well-known vaccine makers include Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Late last month, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported a steep year-over-year decline in demand for COVID-19 vaccinations.

The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, while gold futures climbed above $2,000 per ounce to post their highest close in over two years.

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