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Posted on September 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized and approved updated COVID boosters on Monday amid rising cases and hospitalizations across the country. The boosters made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, were formulated to target variants that are currently circulating, which are related to XBB – an offshoot of the omicron variant.
The US economy is in a “rolling recession” and a full-blown downturn looms, Liz Ann Sonders says.
Weakness in consumer goods and manufacturing is being offset by strength in services, she noted.
Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist doesn’t expect a bunch of interest—rate cuts in 2024.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was up 29.97 points (0.7%) at 4,487.46; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 87.13 points (0.3%) at 34,663.72; the NASDAQ Composite was up 156.37 points (1.1%) at 13,917.89.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 3 basis points at 4.29%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.03 at 13.81.
The consumer discretionary sector, which includes stocks like Tesla and Amazon (AMZN), gained nearly 3% and ended at an eight-week high. Health care and utilities were also higher. Energy shares dropped as crude oil futures eased, but oil prices remained near 10-month highs.
Posted on December 24, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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he emerging Omicron subvariant XBB contributes to an increasingly high number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., rivaling the sister strains BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, according to the latest estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Recent studies have indicated that the updated bivalent COVID-19 booster performed poorly against BQ.1.1, with even a weaker antibody response against XBB.
In late November, citing its poor neutralization effect on BQ.1 and BQ.1.1., the FDA pulled the emergency use authorization granted for bebtelovimab, a COVID-19 antibody therapy developed by Eli Lilly (LLY) and AbCellera Biologics (ABCL).
The CDC estimates for the week ending Dec. 24 show that XBB has made up ~18% of COVID cases in the U.S. compared to ~11% a week ago. Meanwhile, BQ.1.1 has led to ~36% of cases unchanged from a week ago, and BQ.1 caused ~27% of cases, a decline from ~29% last week.
Re-formulated virus booster shots from Pfizer and Moderna should be on pharmacy shelves by September, a Biden administration official told NBC News.
This means a campaign to release second boosters to a broader swath of the population this summer is being scrapped. These re-tooled shots are intended to provide better protection against the Omicron BA.5 and BA.4 sub-variants, which accounted for more than 90% of new cases in the USA last week.
Posted on July 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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Morgan Stanley named Eli Gross and Simon Smith as new global co-heads of investment banking, as part of a leadership shakeup at the top of one of Wall Street’s most powerful deals advisory group. The current investment banking heads, Mark Eichorn and Susie Huang were elevated to executive chairs of the division to lead a newly formed group of senior bankers, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release June data from the closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, which tracks the prices of a basket of daily goods and services. Investors use the CPI as one way to measure inflation, which has hit a 40-year high this year and forced the Federal Reserve to become increasingly hawkish in terms of monetary policy. While CPI data comes out every month, the reading will be watched more closely than normal, as are the current high levels of inflation.
America has decided the pandemic is over. The corona virus has other ideas. The latestomicron offshoot, BA.5, has quickly become dominant in the United States, and thanks to its elusiveness when encountering the human immune system, is driving a wave of cases across the country. The size of that wave is unclear because most people are testing at home or not testing at all. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the past week has reported a little more than 100,000 new cases a day on average. But infectious-disease experts know that wildly underestimates the true number, which may be as many as a million, said Eric Topol, a professor at Scripps Research who closely tracks pandemic trends. Antibodies from vaccines and previous coronavirus infections offer limited protection against BA.5, leading Topol to call it “the worst version of the virus that we’ve seen.”
Posted on July 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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A new COVID-19 wave is emerging in the United States, dominantly propelled by two strong omicron strains. First seen in South Africa, later in Portland, the BA.5 sub-variant has been pegged as the “worst version” of omicron by experts, as it evades antibodies and transmits easily, according to NBC New York.
This week, the BA.5 strain alone made up 36% of cases in the U.S., while BA.4, another omicron sub-variant gaining momentum, had a hold on 15.7% of infections, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data tracker.
Finally, a host of companies have announced job cuts or hiring freezes in just the last two weeks. They range from Tesla and JPMorgan Chase to Redfin and Coinbase. Netflix last week announced a second round of job cuts for the year, this time eliminating around 300 positions. And, last week Mark Zuckerberg announced similar restructuring for FB [Meta].
Posted on January 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: Stocks just finished a period of high volatility and biotech companies in particular are feeling unsteady. The sector is off to its worst start to a year since 2016 and Moderna is the worst performer in the S&P 500.
Social Media: More than 95,000 people lost a collective $770 million due to fraud on social media last year, a new FTC report found. That represents 25% of all reported losses to fraud in 2021 and a breathtaking 18x increase over social media scam losses in 2017. Driving the surge was bogus cryptocurrencies. In fact, investment-related scams were the most prevalent type of fraud on social media, accounting for 37% of all losses. Romance scams (24%) were No. 2, and online shopping scams (14%) won the bronze medal.
Employment: The January employment rate dropped, but with Omicron forcing so many Americans to call out sick last month, the data may be specious. Economists polled by Dow Jones are estimating the economy added 200,000 jobs last month.
Stock Markets: US stocks staged a big afternoon comeback for the second day in a row … but still not big enough to close in the green. American Express was the top performer in both the S&P and the Dow after the company reported its highest billings volume ever in Q4. And, enthusiasm over meme stocks more broadly appears to be dwindling along with cryptos. And, while NASDAQ took a hit, Microsoft reported quarterly sales of more than $50 billion for the first time ever.
Economy: The weight of the financial world is on Jerome Powell’s shoulders today. The Federal Reserve chair will provide an update on the central bank’s views on sky-high inflation and its plan for interest rate hikes this year (though none are expected until March).
Pandemic: Pfizer and BioNTech started clinical trials for an Omicron-specific vaccine yesterday. The results will help the pharma partners decide whether to replace their current jab formula with one that targets the most dominant Covid variant. The new vaccine is being tested both as a three-shot series for un-vaccinated participants and as a booster for the already vaccinated.
Posted on January 21, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The S&P 500 closed below 4,500 points for the first time since October after a heavy sell-off in the final hour of the trading day. Netflix stock tumbled in after-hours trading when it revealed slowing subscriber growth for the prior and current quarters.
Economy: The number of people filing jobless claims took an unexpectedly big jump last week after a period of historically low readings. The pop is likely a sign of Omicron disruptions hitting the labor market, and economists expect it to be temporary.
You can also listen to a professional narration of this article on iTunes, Google & online.
Mr. Market was less than kind to our portfolio over the last few months, and especially the last few weeks. I cannot tell you how little it worries us what Mr. Market thinks about our stocks at any particular point in time. We love* our portfolio even if the Mr. Market doesn’t fancy it today.
Also, before we take Mr. Market seriously, let us tell you about the rationality of Mr. Market lately. The World Health Organization (WHO) names each variant of the Covid virus by going to the next letter of the Greek alphabet. After Delta, which is currently the most predominant variant of the virus ravaging the world, there must have been nine others that were not important enough because we never heard of them. Why nine? Because when the latest variant of concern was found in South Africa, it emerged that the letter Nu was supposed to be applied to it. But Nu sounds a lot like new. WHO didn’t want to confuse people, so it skipped to the next letter in the Greek Alphabet, which is Xi – oops, that’s the Chinese supreme dictator. So, for the sake of global political stability, that letter was skipped, too.
This brings us to Omicron, the name of the latest variant.
This is where this story gets a bit more interesting.
The one disruption that really puzzles me is the labor shortage. There are millions of jobs going unfilled today. I hear stories of Starbucks stores being closed due to a lack of workers. Every service that has a heavy labor component has gotten worse – be it restaurants, ride-sharing, or pharmacies. There happens to be a cryptocurrency, one of thousands, that is also named Omicron. I still cannot grasp the logic behind it, but that cryptocurrency was up 900% on the day the South African variant was christened. There must have been a trading algorithm or a lot of bored investors looking for the next gamble, to drive something seemingly worthless up 900%.
That is the drunken Mr. Market that is pricing our stocks today.
I am going to repeat what you will find me saying several times in the letter: We own businesses that are priced, not valued, by Mr. Market thousands of times a day. We have done a lot of work on each company in the portfolio, and through diligent research we have reached the conclusion that each is worth more than the price it is changing hands at today. Are we going to be right about each and every stock? Of course not. This is a numbers game. But we use a time-tested methodology centered on common sense and the cash flows these businesses generate. Also, this is not our first rodeo. We’ll go on making small tweaks, taking advantage of Mr. Market’s manic-depressive moods, at least when it comes to anything that generates cash flows.
Of course, we could change our investment process and load up on the cryptocurrency called Pi Coin, which happens to take its name from the letter in the Greek alphabet that follows Omicron. But I think we all agree we should stick to our knitting, buying high-quality businesses that are significantly undervalued. (Anyway we already loaded up on pie during Thanksgiving.)
Our advice – enjoy this holiday season. Spend time with your loved ones; don’t look at your portfolio. Let us worry about it – after all, we own the same stocks you do.
Posted on January 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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COVID-19 Prevention and Treatment
The majority of COVID-19 patients being treated in hospitals are unvaccinated or have not received a booster dose of the vaccine. These hospitalizations show how vaccines work and highlight the importance of continued vaccination efforts. President Biden has emphasized that vaccines, boosters, and therapeutic drugs have lessened the danger of COVID-19 for vaccinated people.
Vaccine Recommendations: A new recommendation from the CDC says that people who were initially immunized with the Pfizer vaccine should now receive their booster dose after five months, down from six. Some people with weakened immune systems will soon be eligible for a fourth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and an Omicron specific vaccine could be ready by March.
Vaccine Mandates:The Supreme Court is weighing the Biden administration’s requirement that workers get vaccinated or be tested regularly for COVID-19. Many states and cities have created their own vaccine rules and employers are left confused about what to do next during the legal battles and the current rise in cases.
At-Home Testing Shortage: There is a shortage of COVID-19 at-home test kits and kit prices are rising as are reports of price gouging. The White House announced a policy to make at-home tests freely available to Americans. Learn more about at-home tests and their accuracy here.
Antiviral Pills:Doctors express concern that the limited supply of antiviral drugs is unlikely to ameliorate the strain hospitals are experiencing. The U.S. doubled its order for Pfizer’s COVID pill so there’s enough for 20 million people.
Posted on January 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
BY STAFF REPORTERS
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Stock Markets: An inflation report couldn’t stop stocks from pushing higher yesterday, likely because it wasn’t worse than expected. Biogen shares tumbled after Medicare said it would limit coverage of its controversial $28,000 Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm; as the ME-P has noted.
Covid Pandemic: The current Omicron wave is projected to peak by January 19th in the US, according to an influential model from the University of Washington. Then, cases are expected to plummet “simply because everybody who could be infected will be infected,” Washington professor Ali Mokdad told the AP. Cases appear to have already peaked in Britain.
Posted on January 11, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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Stock Markets: Down more than 2% with its back against the wall, the NASDAQ staged a huge comeback yesterday afternoon to close in the green and snap a 4-day losing streak.
Pandemic: Moderna was the S&P 500’s top performer after its CEO said that a booster shot targeting Omicron would soon enter clinical trials. Pfizer also said its Omicron booster would be ready by March.
Economy: A growing number of finance experts are taking the over when it comes to the number of interest rate hikes this year. Goldman Sachs now predicts the Fed will raise rates four times in 2022 (more than previously forecast) and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he’d be surprised if it were only four hikes.
IRS: Even though tax filing season is just around the corner (opening January 24th with an April 18th deadline), the typically joyful and charismatic IRS has a case of the blues. On Monday, the Treasury Department warned that the agency has had a rough year and taxpayers should expect delays as returns are processed. According to Treasury officials, budget cuts and pandemic-related staffing shortages have created a towering backlog at the agency, and a “frustrating season” is on the horizon. While the IRS typically enters filing season with about 1 million unaddressed returns, the number stood at around 8.6 million in mid-Nov. 2021.
Posted on January 10, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
MEDICARE.gov
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The Omicron variant spreads more easily than the original virus that causes COVID-19. Here are 3 things you can do to help protect yourself and others:
Get the COVID-19 vaccine, if you haven’t already. Vaccines are the best tool to protect us from COVID-19. They slow the transmission of the virus, and provide strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization.
Get the booster when you’re fully eligible. Everyone 18 years and older should get a booster shot 2 months after their Johnson & Johnson vaccine, or 5 months after completing their primary COVID-19 vaccination series of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna. Adolescents and teens ages 12 to 17 should also get a booster of Pfizer-BioNTech 5 months after their primary series.
Posted on January 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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StockMarkets: The three major equity indexes begin 2022 near record highs after closing out their best 3-year performance since 1999. The top-performing S&P sectors: Energy, whose 48% annual gain was its best ever (thank you, soaring oil prices). Real estate was the second-best performing sector at 42%, while tech and financials both rose 33%. The biggest winner in the S&P was Devon Energy, which gained nearly 190%. Ford, Moderna, and nine others in the index more than doubled their stock price. Microsoft rose 51%, and Apple’s 34% gain has it sitting close to a $3 trillion market capitalization.
Covid Medicine: Omicron has caused a rapid explosion of Covid cases in the US—the 7-day rolling average of nearly 400,000 new cases on Saturday was more than double the number from one week before. With hospitalizations also ticking higher, officials are warning that health systems will be overloaded before the Omicron wave is expected to peak in mid-January. And, Dr. Anthony Fauci said yesterday that health officials are looking at adding a negative test requirement after five days of quarantine. Under existing guidance, you can emerge from isolation without showing a negative test.
Posted on December 31, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
The Common Bridge
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Entering the Last Chapter of Covid, From Omicron and Beyond – With Dr. James R. Baker, Jr., M.D.
Richard Helppie welcomes back University of Michigan Professor Emeritus of Internal Medicine, and Virologist, Dr. James R. Baker, Jr., M.D., who brings words of both encouragement and warning as the world comes to what he feels is the beginning of the final throws of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Dr. Baker has been a valued guest on the Common Bridge since the beginnings of the coronavirus over a year ago, and brings thoughtful, scientific, data-driven analysis to the most significant health issue of our lifetime.
Posted on December 24, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
BY STAFF REPORTERS
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Markets: The stock market will enjoy a well-deserved day off on Christmas Eve after the S&P closed at an all-time high yesterday. Crocs suffered its worst trading day since April 2020 after its announced $2.5 billion acquisition of the footwear label Hey Dude got a thumbs down from investors.
Covid: The FDA approved Merck’s Covid pill for adults at high risk for severe disease, just one day after they greenlit Pfizer’s pill. And the CDC shortened the required isolation time for health workers who test positive to combat potential employee shortages during the Omicron wave.
Posted on December 22, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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Markets: Down big one day, up big the next—that’s the Omicron-era stock market for you. Stocks surged yesterday following a 3-day losing streak, with travel companies leading the way.
Covid: The FDA is set to authorize Covid pills from Pfizer and Merck this week, Bloomberg reports. These treatments, which are intended to be taken by vulnerable people shortly after they are infected, could significantly reduce the burden on strained hospitals. Experts say the pills are a pandemic medical milestone second only to vaccines.
Posted on December 21, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: With Omicron concerns swirling and President Biden’s big spending plan KO’d by Senator Joe Manchin, the S&P posted its biggest three-day drop since September. Tesla shares have now fallen back to their price before their big Hertz deal was announced in October.
Build Back Better: Goldman Sachs cut its economic growth forecast for next year after Joe Manchin said he wouldn’t vote for Democrats’ $2 trillion social spending bill. But yesterday the senator detailed some changes to the bill he’d support, reviving hopes that negotiations could resume in January.
Posted on December 9, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The S&P posted its third straight day of gains, as fears of widespread Omicron-induced lock-downs continue to fade. Roku stock popped 18% after it reached a deal with Google to keep YouTube and YouTube TV on its platform.
Economy: Great Resignation update—still going strong. 4.2 million people quit their jobs in October, a historically high number but 205,000 lower than the previous month.
Posted on December 8, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
TOPICS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ON THE ME-P
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: Omicron who? Fed tapering what? Stocks continued to roar back from their post-Thanksgiving hangover, with tech shares leading the way. The NASDAQ had its best day since March.
Covid: Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine is less effective, but still provides some protection, against the Omicron variant, an early study from South Africa showed.
US Government: Congress had a busy evening. Lawmakers reached a deal to raise the country’s debt ceiling, and the House passed a $768 billion defense policy bill that increases pay for service members.
Posted on December 6, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
StockMarketInvesting Perspectives
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: With stocks selling off sharply last week, at least we still have Crypto, right? Right? Bitcoin tanked more than 20% at one point this weekend, dragging many other digital tokens with it. El Salvador, for one, bought the dip.
Covid: At first glance, Omicron does not appear to cause more severe illness, Dr. Fauci said yesterday. Early results out of South Africa, where Omicron is spreading, show it’s not driving up hospitalizations. Fauci called the data “a bit encouraging.”
Posted on December 4, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
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WHAT A WEEK!
Markets: Stocks ended a topsy-turvy week with another stinker yesterday, dragged netherward (big word alert) by the tech sector. Meta shares nearly entered a bear market, falling almost 20% from a closing record in September. Still, the S&P was down less than 1% for the week.
Covid: The first bits of solid Omicron data are starting to trickle out. One study from South Africa showed that the new variant may cause a higher rate of reinfection in people who already got Covid. Critical information on the effectiveness of current vaccines against Omicron could come in a few days, a WHO scientist said.
Posted on November 29, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
By Staff Reporters
Markets: Stocks dropped sharply in the post-Thanksgiving trading session on Friday due to concerns over the new Covid variant, Omicron. The Dow fell 2.5% for its worst day of the year, and the S&P also tumbled 2.3%. Oil prices and travel stocks also got rocked given fresh worries over travel demand, while “stay-at-home” names like Peloton and Zoom got a boost.
Economy: It’s still way too early to know the impact of Omicron on economic growth. As we laid out last week, the Fed is under pressure to accelerate the winding down of its stimulus measures in order to battle inflation, but the new variant could change the calculus. Investors dialed back their expectations of a sooner-than-expected rate increase on Friday.
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