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Stocks Up, Bond Yields Down as Commodities Rise and Fall

Posted on August 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Stocks: The stock markets rose today after Jerome Powell opened the door to interest rate cuts. The Dow soared to a new all-time high, while small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 had a banner day.
Bonds: Yields fell while the chances of a rate cut after the Fed’s next meeting in September rose to 83%.
Commodities: Gold rose on rate cut hopes while oil fell as peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled. But the biggest winner is coffee: prices have risen for six straight days to cap off its biggest weekly gain since 2021.

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BOND YIELDS: Real and Negative Returns

Posted on December 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Real Bond Yield: For most bonds and other fixed-income securities, real yield is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers minus the premium added to help counteract the effects of inflation. Most “nominal” fixed-income yields include an “inflation premium” that is typically priced into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, TIPS yields and other real yields are typically lower than most nominal yields

Negative Bond Yield: In a normal bond market environment, bond yields are positive, and bond issuers (including governments) make interest payments to investors who lend them money.

In an abnormal, or negative-yield environment, investors essentially pay the bond issuer to hold their money.

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DAILY UPDATE: Pfizer, MSFT and the NASDAQ Collapse

Posted on July 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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As drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound that help people slim down have enlarged its competitors’ bottom lines, Pfizer has struggled to keep up. But now it’s moving forward with the development of a once-daily version.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 index fell 49.37 points (0.8%) to 5,584.54; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) rose 32.39 points (0.1%) to 39,753.75; the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) collapsed and lost 364.04 points (1.95%) to 18,283.41 but remains up 22% year to date. The SPX is still up 17% this year.
The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped eight basis points to 4.19%.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) climbed to 12.99.

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More specifically, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ broke their winning streaks today, closing in the red for the first time in over a week—though both did hit intraday highs at one point. The Dow finished the afternoon in the green, just barely.
Gold breached $2,400, and is closing in on a record high of $2,449.89 set back in May.
Oil rose on today’s CPI news, with the idea being that if inflation slows and the Fed cuts rates then economic activity will pick up, as will demand for crude.
Bond yields sank on CPI data while prices rose.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft abandoned its post as an observer on the board after realizing it was bothering antitrust officials who were looking into the relationship between the two companies. Apple, which was expected to take a similar seat on the OpenAI board, will reportedly no longer do s

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Rocket Back for Highest 2024 Close as Key Inflation Updates Loom

Posted on January 9, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

Bond yields and stock prices often move inversely to each other, in part because higher interest rates on virtually risk-free bonds lower the premium investors can expect from riskier assets like stocks, making it less appealing to buy equities. Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly increased to 4.10%, near a three-week high, before dropping back near 4% Monday.

The S&P 500 index was up 66.30 points (1.4%) at 4,763.54; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 216.90 points (0.6%) at 37,683.01; the NASDAQ Composite was up 319.70 points (2.2%) at 14,843.77.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 3 basis points at 4.015%.
The CBOE^® Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.28 at 13.07.

Semiconductors shares were among the strongest performers, helped by a surge of 6.4% in Nvdia Corp. (NVDA), the top 2023 performer in the S&P 500 with a gain of 239%. Small-cap stocks were also firm as were consumer discretionary and communication services. The Russell 2000^® Index (RUT) gained 1.9% to partly climb back from last week’s 3.7% drop.

Energy shares were soft because crude oil futures sank nearly 4% following reports Saudi Arabia lowered its prices.

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DAILY UPDATE: Soaring Bond Yields and the U.S. Markets

Posted on October 20, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Bond yields, which impact borrowing costs for all kinds of loan products, moved higher this week as investors fretted over higher-for-longer interest rates. After notching a 16-year-record earlier this month, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond continued to surge on Thursday, rising to 4.958%.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 Index was down 36.60 points (0.9%) at 4,278.00; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down 250.91 points (0.8%) at 33,414.17; the NASDAQ Composite was down 128.13 points (1.0%) at 13,186.18.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was up about 9 basis points at 4.988%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 2.09 at 21.31.

Powell’s speech and Treasury yields at least partly overshadowed earnings reports from a few major companies, including Netflix (NFLX), whose shares soared 16% after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

Otherwise, most areas of the market eroded, with consumer discretionary and real estate among the weakest-performing sectors. Energy shares held up somewhat better as crude oil futures rose for the fifth day in the past six and ended near a three-week high above $89 a barrel.

Gold futures jumped 1% and closed near a three-month high.

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Alerts Sign-Up, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Investing | Tagged: bond yields, bonds, CBOE, DJIA, DOW, energy, gold, inflation, Netflix, NFLX, NSDAQ, oil, Powell, real estate, Russell 2000, S&P 500, VIX | Leave a comment »

DAILY UPDATE: Birkenstock IPO, Bond Yields and the Markets

Posted on October 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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After months of speculation, Birkenstock made its first move to go public in September, sending its prospectus document to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In the filing, Birkenstock stated it would sell close to 32.26 million shares priced between $44 and $49 per ordinary share to raise about $1.58 billion for the company and its private equity owner L Catterton, which is backed by the French luxury fashion house LVMH. At the low end, the valuation would hover around $8.3 billion, and at the high end about $9.2 billion, according to the numbers revealed in the filing. The prospectus also stated that LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault’s family holding company Financière Agache is interested in buying up to $325 million in shares. Alexandre Arnault, Bernard’ son, will join Birkenstock’s board of directors after the offering. While no date has been confirmed for when the company will officially go public, Birkenstock’s debut on the stock exchange could come as soon as Wednesday, Oct. 11th, 2023.

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A sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields could be bringing the Federal Reserve’s historic rate hiking cycle to an anticlimactic end. Top central bank officials have signaled in recent days that they could be done raising short-term interest rates if long-term rates remain near their recent highs and inflation continues to cool.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 Index was up 22.58 points (0.5%) at 4,358.24; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was up 134.65 points (0.4%) at 33,739.30; the NASDAQ Composite was up 78.60 points (0.6%) at 13,562.84.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was down about 13 basis points at 4.653%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.66 at 17.04.

Shares of retailers, regional banks, and technology companies were among the market’s strongest performers Tuesday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) up more than 1% to a three-week high.

Small-caps also strengthened, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) up about 1.5%, outpacing their large-cap counterparts. WTI crude oil futures fell for the first day in three, while the U.S. dollar index (DXY) eroded for the fifth day in a row to touch its lowest level in more than a week.

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HOUSING: Affordability Down

Posted on August 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Housing affordability Getting Worse

Surging bond yields are playing out in a bad way in the housing market, where the average mortgage rate in the US jumped to 7.09%, its highest level since 2002, per Freddie Mac. Combine those eye-watering borrowing costs with an inventory crunch that’s driven up prices, and you get the worst housing affordability conditions in four decades, Bloomberg reports.

Roughly 75% of US homeowners have mortgage rates of less than 4%, according to JPMorgan, so you can imagine why no one is eager to move and pay upward of 7% on a new place.

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Two Year Treasury Yields = HIGH!

Posted on November 4, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. bond yields just rose to new cycle highs as the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hike and commentary reverberated across markets. The policy-sensitive 2-year rate broke intermittently above 4.7%, shrinking its spread to the 10-year rate to as little as minus 60.9 basis points in a worrisome sign of the economic outlook. The 2-year yield finished the New York session at its highest level in more than 15 years.

What’s happening

The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose 13.1 basis points to 4.699% from 4.568% on Wednesday. Thursday’s level is the highest since July 25, 2007, based on 3 p.m. figures from Dow Jones Market Data.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury advanced 6.4 basis points to 4.123% from 4.059% as of late Wednesday. Thursday’s level is the highest since Oct. 24.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury climbed 2.9 basis points to 4.151% from 4.122% Wednesday afternoon.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Extend Rally as U.S. Dollar and Bond Yields Cool Off!

Posted on October 26, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks Extend Rally as U.S. Dollar and Bond Yields Cool Off

U.S. stocks traded higher as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar pulled back, while investors digested a host of corporate results.

Earnings reports painted a mixed picture, as Dow member Coca-Cola beat earnings estimates and raised its guidance, while Dow member 3M also announced a positive earnings surprise, but lowered its full-year outlook. Additionally, General Electric missed earnings expectations and lowered guidance, and General Motors topped profit projections. In economic news, home prices declined more than expected in August, consumer confidence decreased, and regional manufacturing fell more than fore-casted.

Crude oil and gold prices gained ground.

Markets in Asia finished mixed as economic uncertainty continued to weigh on conviction, while European stocks finished mostly higher following economic reports and the political situation in the U.K.

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UPDATE: Domestic Stocks Wobble But Hold

Posted on September 15, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The wobbly trading came as investors weighed another snapshot of inflation. Markets have been on edge about the possibility of a recession after a string of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year as the central bank fights inflation.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% after wavering between small gains and losses much of the afternoon. The benchmark index was coming off its biggest drop since June 2020, which ended a four-day winning streak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.7%. Smaller company stocks also rose, pushing the Russel 2000 to a 0.4% gain.

Bond yields remained relatively stable after leaping higher on Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose to 3.79% from 3.75% late Tuesday, when it soared on expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps dictate where mortgages and rates for other loans are heading, held steady at 3.41%.

A report on inflation at the wholesale level showed prices are still rising rapidly, with pressures building underneath the surface, even if overall inflation slowed. It echoed a report on inflation at the consumer level Tuesday, which raised expectations for interest-rate hikes and triggered a rout for markets.

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UPDATE: The Domestic GDP, Bond Yield Surge and Stock Market Volatility [VIX]

Posted on May 1, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Staff Reporters

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The U.S. economy reversed course in this year’s first quarter, when it shrank at an annual rate of 1.4% after posting full-year growth of 5.7% in 2021. While many economists believe the first-quarter setback was temporary, it marked the worst quarterly GDP result since the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic triggered a brief recession.

And, despite a relatively flat result in the latest week, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond jumped in March and April, climbing from 1.83% at the start of that two-month period to around 2.89% on Friday. Rising interest rates have eroded bond prices, pushing yields higher.

Finally, the stock market’s relative calm in the first half of April was fleeting, as the past two weeks produced a 47% jump in an index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term volatility. The CBOE Volatility Indexꟷalso known as the VIXꟷrose to an index level of 33.4 on Friday, up from 22.7 on April 15.

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UPDATE: “Earth Day” on Stock Markets, Bond Yields & China

Posted on April 22, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks fell as investors monitor a steady stream of corporate earnings against a backdrop of elevated inflation and further Fed policy tightening.

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The S&P 500 dropped and erased earlier gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also turned lower. The NASDAQ fell more than 2% and extended losses when the tech-heavy index was weighed down by a slide in Netflix. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) shares rose after the electric vehicle-maker handily exceeded expectations in its fiscal first-quarter results.

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Treasury bond yields climbed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the case for front-loading interest rate hikes with 50 basis-point increases in order to quickly address persistent inflationary pressures. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also suggested in an interview with Yahoo Finance that she would back a larger-than-typical 50 basis point interest rate hike following the Fed’s May meeting given current price pressures.

China: The nation’s securities regulator issued investor guidance for the country’s giant social security fund, just as the benchmark CSI 300 Index was heading toward the lowest level since June 2020.

HAPPY EARTH DAY 2022!

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UPDATE: Stocks, Treasury Yield and Commodity Futures

Posted on April 9, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.40%, or 137 points, The S&P 500 fell 0.20%, the NASDAQ slipped 1.3%. All three major averages ended the week in the red.

Technology stocks snapped a three-week winning streak, keeping the broader market in the red as investors remain wary of growth sectors of the market in the wake of surging Treasury yields.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 2.7% for the first time in more than three years on expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening to stem inflation.

DEFINITION: In economics, a commodity is an economic good, usually a resource, that has full or substantial fungibility: that is, the market treats instances of the good as equivalent or nearly so with no regard to who produced them.

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Gold Futures for June delivery were down 0.34% or 6.60 to $1,931.20 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in May rose 0.31% or 0.30 to hit $96.33 a barrel, while the June Brent oil contract rose 0.14% or 0.14 to trade at $100.72 a barrel.

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STOCK MARKETS: Update and the Federal Reserve

Posted on January 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Already through a rough day, stocks dove even lower after the Fed released the minutes from its December meeting. Tech companies continued to get clobbered as rising bond yields make their shares less attractive.
About the Federal Reserve Minutes: Inflation anxiety was real at the central bank’s previous meeting, and officials signaled they could hike interest rates “sooner or at a faster pace” than previously expected to cool down prices.

DOW 36,407.11 ▼ -392.54 NASDAQ 15,100.17 ▼ -522.54 S&P 500 4,700.58 ▼ -92.96 WTI Futures 78.98 ▲ +1.13

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