The Economy, Stocks and Commodities

Posted on September 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By. A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Economy: Headline PCE rose from 2.6% on an annual basis in July to 2.7% in August, while core PCE stayed flat at 2.9%—all in line with analyst expectations.
  • Stocks: Solid inflation numbers helped equities arrest their recent selloff and offset the latest batch of tariffs. However, all three major indexes still ended the week lower than where they started.
  • Commodities: Oil climbed as Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, gold hit another all-time high, and rose above $3,800 for the first time ever at one point today.

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Stocks, Bonds and Crypto-Currrency

Posted on September 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield popped on solid economic data yesterday, including weekly jobless claims falling to their lowest since mid-July and Q2 GDP rising unexpectedly.
  • Stocks: But good news for the labor market and economy is bad news for anyone hoping the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next month, and the major indexes sank for a third day in a row yesterday. All eyes now turn to today’s key PCE reading.
  • Crypto: Digital assets continued to tumble yesterday with ether falling below $4,000 for the first time in months. There may be more pain ahead: $22 billion in crypto options expire today.

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Stocks, Economics & Commodities

Posted on June 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By AI

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ started the day inches away from their all-time highs, but the market rally faltered in mid-afternoon as relief from an Israel/Iran ceasefire faded and investors turned their attention to Friday’s PCE report.
  • Economy: Speaking of inflation, Jerome Powell stuck to his guns during his second day of congressional testimony, endorsing a wait-and-see mentality. President Trump is apparently tired of waiting, and says he has “3 or 4” candidates in mind to replace Powell.
  • Commodities: Oil bounced back after posting its biggest two-day decline since 2022.

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EARNINGS REPORTS: Out This Week

Posted on April 28, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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This Week is Full of Data

On the economic side, things kick off on Tuesday with the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and the job openings and labor turnover survey.

Then Wednesday brings the banga-bing, banga-boom: GDP, the ADP employment report, and of course, PCE.

On Thursday we get initial jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index, followed by Friday’s US jobs report.

Company Earnings Reports

Monday: Domino’s Pizza, Waste Management, Nucor, and NXP Semiconductors

Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Pfizer, Honeywell, Spotify, Snap, American Tower, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez International, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, BP, PayPal, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Porsche, Adidas, GM, Corning, Kraft Heinz, JetBlue Airways, and Paccar

Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, Airbus, UBS, GSK, Barclays, Volkswagen, Robinhood, Humana, eBay, Norwegian Cruise Line, Albemarle, Wingstop, and Etsy

Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Amgen, MicroStrategy, CVS Health, Airbnb, Dominion Energy, Roblox, Block, Hershey, Live Nation Entertainment, Kellanova, Estee Lauder, Reddit, Duolingo, Twilio, Juniper Networks, Moderna, United States Steel, Roku, Wayfair, and Harley-Davidson

Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Eaton, Cigna Group, T. Rowe Price, Apollo, ING, and Wendy’s

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DAILY UPDATE: NIH, FDA, CMS and HHS Nominees as Stock Markets Collapse

Posted on March 29, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is officially the new NIH director. The Senate voted to confirm the Stanford University professor’s appointment on March 26 in a 53–47 vote. Marty Makary MD was also confirmed as FDA commissioner in the same hearing in a 56–44 vote. The appointments come as additional “healthcare disruptors,” alongside Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation as HHS secretary and Mehmet Oz’s nomination as head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The nominees have faced backlash from the medical community following their controversial stances on topics like vaccinations and alternative medical practices.

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US stocks tanked on Friday as Wall Street grappled with President Trump’s escalating trade war and weighed signs of reinvigorated inflation pressures as consumer sentiment plummets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped more than 700 points or nearly 1.7%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell almost 2%. The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.7% as tech stocks led the declines.

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As noted above, the major averages fell on Friday after the release of a hotter-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures index reading, which includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge of “core” PCE. The reading showed prices increased more than expected last month, rising 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year, continuing a stubborn plateau on the path to the Fed’s 2% target.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures

Posted on December 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price deflator—comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ quarterly report on U.S. gross domestic product—and is based on a survey of businesses and is intended to capture the price changes in all final goods, no matter the purchaser.

Because of its broader scope and certain differences in the methodology used to calculate the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) holds the PCE deflator as its preferred, consistent measure of inflation over time.

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DAILY UPDATE: Softening U.S. Labor Market

Posted on September 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Recent data suggest that the US labor market is softening, and the Federal Reserve appears to be taking notice. The Fed gave a strong signal in July that it was prepared to cut the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points in September. And so, Vanguard RIA is anticipating an additional second 25-basis-point cut this year and a target range of 3.25%–3.5% at the end of 2025.

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  • The U.S. economy created 114,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The unemployment rate increase is attributable to labor force growth exceeding job growth rather than an increase in job losses.
  • Broad consumer prices rose in July at the slowest year-over-year pace since early 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% compared with July 2023, with shelter price increases accounted for nearly 90% of the monthly increase. The report reaffirms our view that shelter inflation will remain sticky through the rest of the year as supply expands only slowly and demand remains steady.
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation measure to guide policymaking, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, held steady year-over-year in June, rising by 2.6%. We foresee the pace of core PCE rising to 2.9% by year-end because of challenging comparisons with year-earlier data.
  • The U.S. economy displayed continued resilience in the second quarter, with real GDP growth increasing by an annualized 2.8%, with support from increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending. Through midyear, GDP growth is tracking largely in line with our 2% outlook for the year. 

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Physician Salary, Consumer Confidence, Company Stocks and Slumping Markets

Posted on May 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Doctors Saw a 6% Boost in Pay in 2023

After several years of modest or declining growth, the average pay for doctors jumped 5.9% in 2023, rebounding from a decline of 2.4% in 2022. Most medical specialties experienced positive growth in 2023, with the top 10 seeing annual growth rates exceeding 7%, according to the 2024 Physician Compensation Report from professional medical network Doximity.

However, inflationary pressures continue to impact physicians’ real income. According to the American Medical Association, when adjusted for inflation, Medicare physician payment has dropped 26% since 2001. Doximity’s compensation data draw from nearly 150,000 survey responses over five years, including responses from more than 33,000 U.S. physicians in 2023 alone.

Source: Heather Landi, Fierce Healthcare [5/23/24]

Economic Summary

  • The S&P 500 has risen 23 of the last 30 weeks, according to Deutsche Bank, and rose slightly today as well. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ closed at a record high yesterday after tech companies across the board rose, while the Dow dropped over 200 points.
  • Treasury prices fell and yields rose after two weaker-than-expected auctions saw soft sales of 2-year and 5-year bonds.
  • Gold prices slipped 5% last week after falling four days in a row, but the key commodity kicked off this week with a win. With key PCE data coming out on Friday that could send the market soaring or tanking, investors are hedging their bets with the shiny yellow metal.
  • Bitcoin fell as Mt. Gox made good with its creditors a decade after being hacked, while ethereum sank as traders continued to lock in gains from the SEC’s dramatic ruling last week.
  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 39.09 points (0.7%) to 5,266.95; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 411.32 points (1.1%) to 38,441.54; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) shed 99.30 points (0.6%) to 16,920.58.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield climbed more than 7 basis points to 4.614%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 1.38 to 14.30.

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Consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months

Americans are unexpectedly feeling better about the economy this month: Per the Conference Board’s monthly index, US consumer sentiment rose from 97.5 in April to 102 in May, smashing economists’ estimates. Meanwhile, the expectations index, which measures the short-term outlook for income and other labor market conditions, increased the most since July. However, the report showed that Americans remain worried about inflation and interest rates. Despite their mixed feelings about the economy, Americans continue to spend vigorously on travel. The TSA set a record for most travelers screened in a single day last Friday.

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STOCKS UP:

Dick’s Sporting Goods rose 15.86% to a new all-time high today after the company reported impressive earnings and a strong outlook.

STOCKS DOWN:

American Airlines shares fell 13.54% after the company cut its guidance for the second quarter. Southwest Airlines fell 3.83%, and Delta Air Lines fell 0.74%.

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DAILY UPDATE: Post Memorial Day Tuesday

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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US markets were closed for Memorial Day in what will be a quiet few days until the latter half of the week, when a slew of economic reports get filed. The highlights include the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, initial jobless claims and Q1 GDP on Thursday, and both the April personal income & spending report and the all-important PCE read on Friday.

PCE, or the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, will dictate market moves more than any of the other readings next week, since the Fed places a lot of importance on the measure—particularly core PCE, which excludes ever-changing food and gas prices. April’s CPI report was better than expected, but recent FOMC minutes revealed the Fed is still hesitant to cut interest rates without more data—which makes this PCE reading all the more significant.

And don’t forget, the US isn’t the only country fending off high inflation. Germany reports preliminary May CPI on Wednesday, while readings for France, Italy, and the entire Eurozone will be released on Friday. Tokyo CPI, economic activity, and job market data will also come out on Friday, in what is turning out to be a key day in determining where markets are heading as the second half of the year kicks off.

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  • Stock spotlight: One to watch this week is Dell, which reports its quarterly earnings on Thursday. Investors will be seeking news on its AI-server business. The company hit a record high last week as Nvidia’s red-hot revenue numbers boosted AI-related stocks.

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DAILY UPDATE: Good Friday’s Impressive First Quarter Stock Market Returns

Posted on March 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The stock market will be closed Friday, March 29th, for Good Friday. While Good Friday is a stock market holiday, it is not a federal holiday. As a result, the February Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released this Friday morning.

Yesterday, on the final trading session of March and the first quarter, the returns for major stock indexes are impressive, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 5% this quarter or 2,000 points and the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ up 11% apiece. Stock superlatives for 2024’s opening stretch are numerous, including each of the three indexes setting respective all-time highs and the benchmark S&P heading toward its best first-quarter return since 2019 and its second consecutive quarter of double-digit percentage gains since 2011-12.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended Thursday:

  • The S&P 500 index added 5.86 points (0.1%) to 5,254.35, up 0.4% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 47.29 points (0.1%) to 39,807.37, up 0.8% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite lost 20.06 points (0.1%) to 16,379.46, down 0.3% for the week. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield rose one basis point to just under 4.21%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.22 to 13.00.

For the month, the S&P 500 index gained 3.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.1%, and the NASDAQ Composite added 1.8%. For the quarter, the three indexes rose 10.3%, 5.6%, and 9.2%, respectively.

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DAILY UPDATE: Larry Summers Speaks About Domestic Economic Activity as the Markets Collapse

Posted on February 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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According to Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said worrying signals of a potential sharp drop-off in activity combined with strength in other indicators point toward an uncertain economic outlook.

Here is Why:

Inventories “look to be building up relative to sales.”Companies are “reporting concerns about their order books.”The business sector appears to have a high payroll head-count relative to “the level of output they’re producing.”“Consumer savings are being depleted, with a low savings rate.” And, “there is stuff when you look down the road a bit that has to be substantially concerning about the Wile E. Coyote kind of moment,” reiterating his reference to the cartoon character that falls off a cliff. 

Federal Reserve policymakers will need to “stay nimble and flexible” given the uncertainty, Summers said. The central bank should “resist the pressure to be giving strong signals about what it’s going to do next.”

Finally, the former Treasury chief also reiterated the lack of past examples in which the US managed to avoid a recession when the unemployment rate dropped below 4% and inflation went above 4%. “That’s a powerful historical truth and I think it’s one that’s relevant to our current situation.”

The latest unemployment-rate reading was 3.4%, while the consumer price index climbed 6.4% in January on a year-on-year basis.

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Stocks Fell Following Hot Inflation Report and U.S. equities ended the day and week lower as the markets reacted to a Fed-favored gauge of inflation that came in hotter-than-expected. PCE and Core PCE Price Indexes rose more than anticipated, while personal income increased less than expected, and spending jumped. The moves came as equities have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening as a result of persistent inflation. In other economic news, new home sales rose, and consumer sentiment was surprisingly revised the upside.

Treasury yields were higher, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil prices increased, and gold traded to the downside. Q4 earnings season rounded a corner this week with some second-tier results hitting the tape, as Autodesk disappointed with its guidance and Intuit bested expectations, while Warner Bros. Discovery fell well short of forecasts.

In other equity news, shares of Boeing declined after the company paused delivery of its 787 Dreamliner planes. Asian stocks finished mixed, and markets in Europe fell, with economic data in the respective regions keeping the anxiety over future global monetary policy elevated.

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