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DAILY UPDATE: Unemployment Benefit Claims Elevated after Markets Rise

Posted on June 16, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits remained elevated last week, a possible sign that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes over the past year may taking hold in what’s proved to be a resilient job market. U.S. applications for jobless claims were 262,000 for the week ending June 10th, the Labor Department reported Thursday, more than analysts were expecting. This week’s number mirrors last week’s, which was revised up by 1,000. The claims numbers for the past two weeks are the highest since October of 2021. The four-week moving average of claims, which flattens some of the week-to-week fluctuations, rose by by more than 9,000 to 246,750. That’s the highest level since November of 2021.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 Index was up 53.25 points (1.2%) at 4,425.84; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 428.73 (1.3%) at 34,408.06; the NASDAQ Composite was up 156.34 (1.2%) at 13,782.82.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 8 basis points at 3.718%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.61 at 14.49.

Energy was the best performing sector Thursday as WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3%, putting them back above $70 per barrel, thanks to improving demand from China. Health care and retail stocks were also strong.

The euro surged above $1.09, its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in over a month, after the European Central Bank earlier Thursday hiked its benchmark deposit rate a quarter point to 3.5%, saying inflation is still too high.

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DAILY UPDATE: May Monthly Inflation as Markets Hit New Highs as FOMC Pause Seen

Posted on June 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

FLAG DAY 2023

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Measured year over year, inflation slowed to just 4 per cent in May — the lowest 12-month figure in over two years and well below April’s 4.9 per cent annual rise. The pullback was driven by tumbling gas prices and smaller increases in grocery prices and other items.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended, today:

The S&P 500^® Index was up 30.08 points (0.7%) at 4,369.01; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 145.79 (0.4%) at 34,212.12; the NASDAQ Composite was up 111.40 (0.8%) at 13,573.32.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 6 basis points at 3.829%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.4 at 14.61.

Regional banks and oilfield services stocks led the gainers Tuesday. Crude oil futures rose 3% on expectations of stronger demand from China. Small-caps were also strong, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rising more than 1% to its highest level since early March. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in more than three weeks thanks to expectations interest rates could be near their peak.

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DAILY UPDATE: D-Day, AIDS, Guns, SARS CoV-2, Mpox and the Markets

Posted on June 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Normandy landings were the landing operations and associated airborne operations on Tuesday, 6th June 1944 of the Allied invasion of Normandy in Operation Overlord during World War II. Code-named Operation Neptune and often referred to as D-Day, it was the largest seaborne invasion in history.

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It has also been 42 years since the CDC first reported on AIDS in the US, describing five Los Angeles-area patients with Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. Today about 1.2 million people in the US live with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, a condition that’s considered chronic but not necessarily fatal. Still, US leaders want to end the HIV epidemic by 2030.

Advocates are calling for gun violence to be considered as an “adverse childhood experience.”

There are high concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City’s wastewater.

Chicago health officials still recommend exercising caution over Mpox in the year following a major outbreak.

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With the drama of earnings season, the debt ceiling battle, and last Friday’s crucial jobs report in the rear-view mirror, Wall Street enters the week seeking new catalysts.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) starts the week on the cusp of a new bull market. A close of 4,292 or above would represent approximately a 20% gain from the 2022 low close of 3,577 posted last October 12. A 20% gain from the bottom represents a new bull market. That said, the SPX is still down about 11% from its all-time high close of 4,796 posted January 3, 2022.

You may recall a strong rally last summer. But the 17% rally that lasted from mid-June 2022 through mid-August 2022 lifted the SPX just 17%—not enough to put it into bull market territory.

The 10-year Treasury note yield ($TNX) was down slightly to 3.68%. The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is up slightly to 104.29. The Cboe Volatility Index® ($VIX) has been in positive territory all day today and was last seen up by 0.27 to 14.87. WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is up to $73.22 per barrel after Saudi Arabia said it would cut production.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $1,953.80 to $1,978.00 and were last seen trading higher by 0.17% to $1,973.00.

Natural Gas prices have traded in a range of $2.184-2.2301 so far today and were last seen trading higher by $0.077 (or + 3.55%) to $2.249/MMBtu.

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DAILY UPDATE: Tax Day Deadline with IRS Audit Probabilities — Stock Markets Edge Up

Posted on April 18, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Tax deadline — April 18, 2023 — is today.

Did you know that the probability of being audited by the IRS is generally low, with less than 1% of tax returns receiving a second look? The average chance of being audited is 1 in 333, or 0.3%. But, certain factors can increase the likelihood of being audited, such as earning a lot of money or claiming complex deductions.

For example, the audit rate among filers with income of $10 million or more is 6.66%, while the audit rate for filers with incomes between $25,000 and $500,000 is roughly 0.5%. If selected for an audit, the taxpayer must demonstrate that the information on their tax return is correct

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The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:

The S&P 500 Index was up 13.68 points (0.3%) at 4151.32; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 100.71 (0.3%) at 33,987.18; the NASDAQ Composite was up 34.26 (0.3%) at 12,157.72.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 8 basis points at 3.3.60%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.13 at 16.94.

Among S&P 500 sectors, real estate stocks led advancers, while financials and industrials were also higher. Small-caps rose, with the Russell 2000 up about 1%. Communication services companies were among the weakest performers, and energy companies slumped as crude oil futures dropped nearly 2%.

The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, and equity market volatility remained subdued, with the VIX extending a decline to the lowest levels since late 2021.

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DAILY UPDATE: Sternlicht Speaks on Inflation as the Markets Stabilize

Posted on April 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Image result for inflation

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Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht, who has a net worth of $4.6 billion, says inflation is going to drop—and it’s going to drop hard. In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Sternlicht was asked what he’d say in response to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders, in which Dimon writes that current economic conditions “create more risk and potentially higher inflation,” and higher rate hikes.

However, after saying he’s a big fan of Dimon and that he runs “probably one of the best banks in the world,” Sternlicht clarified to CNBC that “we don’t agree on everything.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:

The S&P 500^® Index was up 4.09 (0.1%) at 4109.11; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 101.23 (0.3%) at 33,586.52; the NASDAQ Composite was down 3.6 at 12,084.36.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 4 basis points at 3.419%.
CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.54 at 18.94.

Energy and transportation were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while communications services was the biggest laggard. WTI crude oil futures fell slightly but remained near two-month highs posted last week.

Gold futures fell sharply for the second session in a row. The U.S. dollar index jumped to its strongest level in nearly two weeks.

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DAILY UPDATE: The Softening Economic Markets

Posted on April 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

“Sameach Pesach”

Holy [Maundy] Thursday

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The NASDAQ extended its losing streak for a third day yesterday amidst a mixed showing for stocks overall. Among the tech stocks having a rough day was cybersecurity giant Zscaler, as investors got new data suggesting the labor market may be cooling (setting off recession jitters again).

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This week’s economic numbers “all point to a softening economy,” but not necessarily a “soft landing,” says Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. An economic slowdown that averts recession “is what the Fed is looking for, but the market is saying today—with both stock prices and bond yields lower—that recession fears are outweighing hopes for a soft landing,” Kevin says.

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Here’s how the major indexes performed:

The S&P 500^® Index fell 10.22 points (0.3%) to 4090.38; the Dow Jones industrial average rose 80.34 (0.2%) to 33482.72; the NASDAQ Composite fell 129.47 (1.1%) to 11996.86.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 3 basis points to 3.309%.
CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.12 at 19.12.

Among S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary and industrial stocks led declines. One bright spot was the healthcare sector, which jumped nearly 2%, helped by gains in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY). Recession concerns weighed particularly heavily on small-cap stocks, as the Russell 2000 index dropped near a two-week low. WTI crude futures fell slightly but remained above $80 a barrel and near two-month highs.

Gold futures extended this week’s rally and ended at a 13-month high.

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BREAKING NEWS: Oil, Distressed Banks and Banking

Posted on March 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Saudi Aramco made what is s probably the “highest net income ever recorded in the corporate world,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser just said. The state-owned oil giant brought in an astonishing $161.1 billion in net income in 2022, up 46.5% from the previous year. Rising oil prices lifted all energy companies last year, but Aramco raked in almost triple ExxonMobil’s 2022 profits (record for any Western oil company).

So, after getting mixed signals about the economy from Friday’s jobs report, the Fed will take a fine-toothed comb to the consumer price index, which drops tomorrow.

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Banks: At the end of an extremely stressful weekend, depositors of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank were told they would be made whole. Yesterday evening, the US government informed anxious SVB depositors that they’d have access to all the money they stashed with the lender today, even if the amount exceeded the $250,000 limit insured by the FDIC. In addition to backstopping depositors, the Fed is offering additional funding to some banks to limit the contagion from spreading across the banking sector.

And, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s aggressive action shows how the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday could have quickly turned into a full-blown banking crisis when markets open this morning.

Banking is a confidence game, and if people and businesses felt their uninsured deposits were at risk, they could start pulling money from other banks in a catastrophic bank run.
The government had a hard deadline of 9:30am ET this morning to restore confidence in the banking system, and it beat it.
However, in their announcement, regulators also noted the closure of a second bank, New York-based Signature Bank, over “systemic risk.” All of Signature’s depositors will be made whole, they said.

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ALERT: HSBC Holdings PLC just said that it purchased Silicon Valley Bank UK Ltd., the U.K. arm of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, for 1 pound ($1.20). HSBC said the acquisition will help strengthen its franchise in the U.K. As of March 10th, SVBUK had loans of around GBP5.5 billion and deposits of around GBP6.7 billion, while tangible equity is expected to be around GBP1.4 billion. The acquisition was completed immediately.

The Bank of England said it took the decision to sell SVBUK to stabilize the business, ensure continuity of banking services, minimize disruption to the country’s technology sector and support confidence in the financial system.

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DAILY UPDATE: Equities, Treasuries, Crude Oil and BoA

Posted on October 18, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

THE ECONOMY & RECESSION

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities rose noticeably in the first trading session of the week following the new U.K. finance minister’s announcement that the government would abandon nearly all its tax cut plans. The moves came amid hopes of some stabilization in the global bond and currency markets which have seen increased volatility in the wake of the initial proposal.

Treasury yields traded mixed, while the U.S. dollar fell amid strength in both the British pound and the euro.

Crude oil prices nudged lower, and gold traded slightly higher.

Bank of America shares rose as the company eclipsed quarterly expectations on a jump in net interest income, while Q3 earnings season is set to kick into a higher gear this week.

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Economy: This party may be busted by the cops. A US recession is a 100% certainty within the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg’s economic model.

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UPDATE: Domestic Stocks and Commodities

Posted on September 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stocks kicked the week off higher as Wall Street inched closer to highly-anticipated inflation data this week. The S&P 500 climbed 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 230 points, or 0.7%. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite led the way up, soaring 1.3%. The moves build on a recent rebound rally that helped all three major averages log weekly gains for the first time in three weeks on Friday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ each rose more than 4% during over the holiday-shortened week, while the Dow rose 3.2%.

In commodities, oil prices edged higher, extending a streak of recent back-and-forth action. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose about 1.3% to $87.91 per barrel and Brent crude oil advanced 1.4% to $94.13 per barrel.

All eyes are on the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out before markets open later today.

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UPDATE: Crude Oil, Gasoline and Natural Gas Prices

Posted on July 18, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery rose $1.81, or 1.9%, to close at $97.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark suffered a 6.9% weekly fall.
September Brent crude the global benchmark, gained $2.06, or 2.1%, to settle at $101.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Brent fell 5.5% for the week.
Back on Nymex, August gasoline rose 0.8% to end at $3.2132 a gallon, while August heating oil rose 1.4% to $3.699 a gallon. Gasoline rose 6.8% for the week, while heating oil was up 0.7%.
August natural gas rose 6.3% to $7.016 per million British thermal units, pushing it to a 16.3% weekly gain.

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UPDATE: Dollar-Euro Parity, Crude Oil and the Markets

Posted on July 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Euro lost 10% versus the dollar this year and at $1.0238 EUR=EBS is close to the psychologically crucial parity point it last saw in mid-2002. It also hit new seven-year lows versus the Swiss franc and dropped against the sterling and the yen, but few observers are willing to call a bottom yet. Nomura’s analysts cut their euro/dollar target to $0.95 and said parity could be breached as soon as August. Citibank says a move to parity is “inevitable.” However, Nomura said that $0.95 was not that important historically, noting that the euro fell from $1.17 after its creation to $0.82 in October 2002. Extrapolating backwards using its legacy currencies, the euro traded as weak as $0.6444 in February 1985.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, benchmark U.S. crude oil for August delivery fell $8.93 to $99.50 a barrel, its first dip below $100 since May 11th. Brent crude for September delivery fell $10.73 to $102.70 a barrel.

Finally, the Dow dropped 129.44 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 30,967.82; it had been down more than 700 points at its lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 6.06 points, or 0.2%, closing at 3,831.39. And, the NASDAQ Composite advanced 194.39 points, or 1.8%, to finish at 11,322.24.

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UPDATE: The Personal Savings Rate, Oil and the Winklevoss Twins

Posted on June 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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US roaring consumer demand has caused an increase in the price of goods and services, otherwise known as inflation. But with inflation at a 40-year high this year, Americans are finding their monthly income isn’t going as far as it used to. In April, the personal savings rate in the US ticked down to a 14-year low of 4.4%, according to the latest figures from the Commerce Department. That’s half the rate it was in December, and roughly a third of where it was the year before. And, many households are already in negative savings territory, meaning they are increasingly tapping into their savings to cover purchases each month.

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And Oil prices moved higher as a production increase by OPEC+ countries was viewed as potentially too little to offset the absence of Russian supply, while US crude inventories declined sharply. West Texas Intermediate moved 1.249% higher to $116.70, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped about 1% to $117.47

Finally, The Social Network twins are laying off 10% of the workforce at Gemini, the crypto exchange they own. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss said that the industry has entered a “contraction phase that is settling into a period of stasis”—which is another way of saying that the total value of digital assets has plunged by about $2 trillion from its peak last November.

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UPDATE: US Stock Futures, Oil, T-Bonds, Tiger Global & Weekly Economic Events

Posted on May 9, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 191 points, down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 futures declined 0.8% and NASDAQ Composite futures fell 0.9%.

Crude oil futures (West Texas Intermediate) fell 0.2%, to $109.54 a barrel.

TEN Year Bond: 3.128%

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Tiger Global, the hedge fund with the most investments in private billion-dollar startups, is going through one of the worst stretches of any hedge fund in history, falling 44% so far this year and 15% in April alone.

This week’s notable economic events include: On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for April. On Thursday, the BLS releases the producer price index for April, and the Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ended on May 7. On Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May.

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UPDATE: Oil & Energy Prices

Posted on March 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery rose $3.58, or 3.4%, to settle at $107.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after posting a loss of 1.6%.
May Brent crude the global benchmark, rose $3.22, or 2.9%, to $113.45 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 2% loss.
May natural gas rose 5.2% to $5.605 per million British thermal units.
April gasoline rose 3.8% to $3.325 a gallon and April heating oil climbed 2.5% to $3.809 a gallon.

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UPDATE: Foreign Markets, Oil and the Nikkei Index

Posted on February 21, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street trading is closed for Presidents Day holiday. But stock futures were ceding earlier stronger ground, while havens such gold pared losses, after a Kremlin spokesman said no concrete plans for a summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin had been made.

MARKETS: IHS Markit’s flash euro area composite PMI (purchasing managers’ index) reading, seen as a reliable gauge of overall economic health, came in at a five-month high of 55.8 in February. The U.K.’s composite PMI came in at an eight-month high of 60.2 in February, up from 54.2 in January and well above forecasts.

European markets were choppy today today as investors monitored the Russia-Ukraine situation and unexpectedly strong economic data from the euro zone and U.K. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1% during afternoon trade, having gained as much as 0.6% at the start of the session. And, tech stocks dropped 2.4% as most sectors and major bourses slid into the red.

OIL: According to Sonali Paul of Reuters – Oil prices gained more than $1 in early trade on Monday from rising jitters over potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the United States and European Union making clear Russia would face sanctions if it invaded its neighbor. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernize its economy if it invaded Ukraine.

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Brent crude futures were up $1.34, or 1.4%, at $94.88 a barrel at 2312 GMT after hitting a high of $95.00 in early trade.

NIKKEI: Shares in Asia-Pacific fell in Monday morning trade, as investors continue to watch the situation surrounding Ukraine.The Nikkei 225 in Japan slipped 2% in early trade while the TOPIX index shed 1.8%. South Korea’s KOSPI shed 1.64%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.82% in morning trade. And, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.36% lower.

***

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Investing | Tagged: crude oil, KOSPI, MSCI, Nikkei Index, oil, PMI, Russia, Sonali Paul, Stoxx Index, topix, Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen | Leave a comment »

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