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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd
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Classic Definition: Simpson’s Paradox is a phenomenon in probability and statistics in which a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined. This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics and is particularly problematic when frequency data is unduly given causal interpretations.
Modern Circumstance: The paradox can be resolved when causal relations are appropriately addressed in the statistical modeling. Simpson’s paradox has been used as an exemplar to illustrate to the non-specialist or public audience the kind of misleading results misapplied statistics can generate. The name Edward Simpson’s paradox was introduced by Colin R. Blyth in 1972.
Paradox Example: Simpson’s paradox is a recurring nightmare for all statisticians overseeing a clinical trial for a medicine. It is possible that if they leave out a certain “confounding” variable from a study, the study’s conclusion on whether a medicine is effective or not, might be, without measuring that confounding variable, the opposite of what it would have been had that variable been measured. Statisticians have to enlist expert knowledge to assure them-selves that no influential variables are left out.
SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors1738@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com
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