INVESTING: Wrap-Up

By Staff Reporters and Brew Markets

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DAILY UPDATE: Home Prices and 23andMe as Stock Markets Wobble

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The median home price jumped 1.6% YoY last month and is sitting at $431,931. Meanwhile, mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan (the most common) are still hovering just under 7%. The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors said lower mortgage rates are the key to getting buyers to buy homes again.

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What’s up

  • Ulta Beauty is sitting pretty, up 11.78% after the cosmetics retailer crushed earnings expectations and raised its fiscal guidance for the year ahead.
  • Costco Wholesale rose 3.12% after beating Wall Street’s earnings expectations, though same-store sales did slip a bit.
  • Zscaler climbed 9.79% on strong earnings for the cybersecurity company, including 23% revenue growth.
  • Palantir popped 7.73% on a report from the New York Times that the Trump administration has asked the company to help the government compile data on US citizens.

What’s down

  • Nvidia slipped 2.92% as rhetoric between the US and China over semiconductor import restrictions reignited investor fears.
  • Gap plunged 20.18% after the retailer revealed that tariffs will cost between $100 and $150 million.
  • Marvell Technology fell 5.55% after the chip maker barely beat Wall Street expectations last quarter, failing to impress shareholders.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals tumbled 19.01% thanks to mixed results for its new respiratory drug in late stage trials. The medication is made in partnership with Sanofi, which also dropped 5.61%.
  • Dell Technologies sank 2.08% after missing earnings expectations last quarter, though it did manage to beat on revenue.
  • Elastic NV beat analyst forecasts last quarter, but still fell 12.09% after the software company issued lower-than-expected revenue guidance.
  • PagerDuty, which is in fact a cloud computing company and not a seller of 1990s tech, lost 11.43% after issuing lower second-quarter guidance than Wall Street forecast.

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23andMe peaked at a $6 billion valuation in 2021 but never made a profit. It filed for bankruptcy on March 23rd and was put up for auction.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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BLACK FRIDAY: Profiting From “Reverse Supply Chain Logistics”

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Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year, is a half day for the stock market. Both stock exchanges close at 1:00 p.m. ET, with eligible options trading until 1:15 p.m. Normal trading hours resume on the Monday after Thanksgiving, also known as Cyber Monday, when many online retailers host major sales.

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DEFINITION: Reverse logistics—or the supply-chain processes of returns—is a little-known but rapidly growing sector of the economy that’s booming alongside the rise in online shopping that started during the pandemic.

Now, as retailers crack down on returns to avoid hearing another “it was broken when I got it” excuse, some companies are counting on you to send your holiday gifts back. A “reverse logistics” industry has sprung up in recent years to take advantage of the more than $300 billion in returns Americans make every holiday season.

  • Venture capital firms pumped nearly $200 million into reverse logistics startups last year—over 2.5x as much as in 2021, according to Bloomberg.
  • Loop Returns, which sells software to companies looking to streamline the return process on the customer side, raised $115 million at the end of 2022.

Established companies see potential in reverse logistics as well. Last year, Uber launched a feature enabling drivers to pick up your packages and bring them to a returns center. Meanwhile, UPS, whose returns business has grown 25% since 2020, recently acquired the startup Happy Returns.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bilt, Mortgage Rates, Private Equity in Behavioral Health and the Stock Markets

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Wells Fargo is losing $10 million per month on its partnership with Bilt, whose credit card offers users reward points for paying rent, and is looking to renegotiate, the WSJ reports. Apple has stopped offering its buy now, pay later program, Apple Pay Later, after partnering with outside companies, including Affirm.

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Private equity (PE) is all over healthcare, with investment firms owning more than 400 hospitals around the US. But as the country faces a mental health crisis—US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy called it the “the defining public health crisis of our time”—PE has its sights set on one of the fastest-growing areas of the industry: behavioral health care. PE has accounted for over 60% of all behavioral health deal flow since 2018, and firms like Thurston Group and Five Points Capital now own about a quarter of facilities offering behavioral health care in some states, according to a recent cross-sectional study published in JAMA Psychiatry.

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U.S. markets were closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 13.86 points (0.3%) to 5,473.17; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 299.90 points (0.8%) to 39,134.76; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) dropped 140.64 points (0.8%) to 17,721.59.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed about 4 basis points to 4.257%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.80 to 13.28.

What’s up

  • Gilead jumped 8.46% after clinical data revealed that its new twice-a-year shot prevents 100% of HIV cases.
  • Penn Entertainment rose 9.93% on the news that Boyd Gaming has approached its competitor with an acquisition offer.
  • Accenture rose 7.30% after the IT consulting company missed earnings estimates but more than made up for it with bullish bookings data thanks to AI.
  • Darden Restaurants rose 1.53% after a mixed earnings report. Its acquisition of Ruth’s Chris Steak House propped up earnings, while Olive Garden’s same-store sales came in flat, probably because I eat several hundred free breadsticks there every month.

What’s down

  • Trump Media & Technology Group fell 14.56% after the SEC ruled that early shareholders can resell their stock in the company, diluting new shareholders—though providing upward of $247 million in funding for the beleaguered company.
  • Nikola plummeted 31.46% after the company announced a 1-for-30 stock split in a bid to stay listed on the Nasdaq.
  • Kroger fell 3.27% despite beating analyst revenue estimates in its fiscal first quarter as investors digest the chances of the company sealing a deal to buy Albertsons.
  • Tempest Therapeutics dropped 29.47% upon the release of the latest trial data for its liver cancer treatment.
  • Jabil fell 11.45% today after the electronics supplier beat earnings estimates but warned of softer growth in the year ahead.

Mortgage rates fell below 7% last week to their lowest level since March, but this didn’t spur much extra demand.

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DAILY UPDATE: Mortgage Rates, Ascension Healthcare Network Security Event with Mixed Markets

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Novavax, the Covid vaccine-maker’s value doubled after it announced a $1.2 billion deal to develop new shots with Sanofi.

And, Mortgage rates fell for the first time since March, to just over 7%.

Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index rose 8.60 points (0.2%) to 5,222.68, up 1.9% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) advanced 125.08 points (0.3%) to 39,512.84, up 2.2% for the week and its eighth straight daily gain; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) fell 5.40 points (0.03%) to 16,340.87, up 1.1% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) increased more than 5 basis points to 4.50%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.14 to 12.55.

Chip makers ranked among top gainers Friday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) shares surged 4.5% after the company said its April revenue soared 60% behind AI-driven demand. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) climbed 1% and posted a 1.9% gain for the week. Consumer staples and transportation shares were also strong. Energy shares slipped behind a 1.2% drop in WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures, though oil still ended slightly higher for the week.

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National hospital operator Ascension said a “cyber security event” has disrupted some of its clinical operations, according to a news release. Ascension, a St. Louis-based nonprofit and Catholic healthcare network, announced it had detected “unusual activity” on some of its systems. In response, the company kicked off an investigation and remediation efforts—including turning to outside cybersecurity firm Mandiant for help, as well as notifying the “appropriate authorities,” per the release.

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Planet Fitness to raise membership price for the first time since 1998. It’s going to take more than $10/month to join a gym once Planet Fitness raises the price of a basic membership for new members to $15 per month this summer. The $10 amount, which has held steady for 26 years, was considered a sweet spot where people were happy to sign up and wouldn’t bother to cancel once they gave up on their fitness goals. But after posting weaker-than-expected Q1 results, the gym chain decided it’s time to change, even though execs acknowledged that customers are looking to save rather than spend.

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MORTGAGE RATES: Elevated on Black Friday!

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Elevated mortgage rates are set to keep sellers of previously owned homes out of the market heading into next year, but sales will “bottom out” in early 2024, Fannie Mae said this week, before a rebound the following year.

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Mortgage rates hovered near 8 percent as recently as October, the highest level it has hit since the turn of the millennium, which has scared used homeowners from selling their homes as many prefer to stay in lower rates secured in years past. This “lock in effect,” as Fannie Mae analysts describe it, has added to a depleted supply of homes available for buyers and helped push up prices.

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HOUSING: Affordability Down

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Housing affordability Getting Worse

Surging bond yields are playing out in a bad way in the housing market, where the average mortgage rate in the US jumped to 7.09%, its highest level since 2002, per Freddie Mac. Combine those eye-watering borrowing costs with an inventory crunch that’s driven up prices, and you get the worst housing affordability conditions in four decades, Bloomberg reports.

Roughly 75% of US homeowners have mortgage rates of less than 4%, according to JPMorgan, so you can imagine why no one is eager to move and pay upward of 7% on a new place.

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DAILY UPDATE: Mortgages Rates and the Markets are Up!

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Home Mortgage rates just hit their highest mark since 2002, making home ownership even less attainable to potential buyers. Stagnation in the housing market could also put a squeeze on consumer spending, slowing broader economic growth. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, a popular home loan, hit 7.09% last Thursday, up from 6.96% the week before, according to mortgage behemoth the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac).

In a statement tied to the release, Freddie Mac noted that the rise of the 10-year Treasury yield and the strength of the economy both contributed to the high rate.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® Index rose 49 points (1.1%) to 4,436.02; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 184 points (0.54%) to 34,472.98; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) rose 215 points (1.59%) to 13,721.03.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell 15 basis points to 4.180%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) fell roughly 1 point to 16.03.

Communication services—which is home to tech-adjacent companies such as Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Facebook parent Meta (META), and Netflix (NFLX)—and technology were the top-performing sectors Wednesday.

Energy was the laggard, as crude oil futures slipped more than 1% to below $79.

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Housing Wealth Continues to Rise

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Back to pre-financial-crisis levels?

josh

[By Josh Velazquez CMPS]

jvelazquez@bankingunusual.com

The amount of equity that Americans have in their homes has risen back up to pre-financial-crisis levels.

The interesting thing is that it still seems like there is room to grow because housing affordability is still very comfortably above its historical average (see chart below).

This is partly due to the fact that mortgage rates remain low and home ownership is still very affordable relative to renting a house.

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Bottom line: if you or someone you know missed the opportunity to purchase a home a few years ago, it may not be too late to ride this wave higher!

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Conclusion

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Things to Consider when Buying a Home

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Today’s mortgage industry continues to evolve despite the constant market turmoil.

But, with President Barack H. Obama’s recent debt ceiling agreement, mortgage rates have significantly declined and the conditions for buying a home have become extremely favorable.

So, is now the right [best] time to buy a home?

Assessment

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