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Posted on February 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Nike is planning to restructure and lay off 2% of its staff, more than 1,500 people, as consumers pull back on spending.
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If the total U.S. debt were divided by every household in the country, each household would get about $252,000, according to a September tweet from The Kobeissi Letter.
And, Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, shared his concerns regarding the fiscal direction of the United States during a “60 Minutes” interview with Scott Pelley.
Powell said, “The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” emphasizing that the growth of the national debt is outstripping the growth of the economy.
Posted on November 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Today is Veterans Day, when Americans honor all who have served our country in the armed forces. It’s celebrated on November 11th each year because on that morning in 1918 (at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month), the Allied nations and Germany signed an armistice that ended the fighting in World War I.
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SPONSOR: MarcinkoAssociates.com
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Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded its outlook on the US government from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, citing the risks to the nation’s fiscal strength and the political polarization in Congress. The agency has maintained the US’s current top-grade AAA rating, but has raised the possibility that it may be cut in the future. While the move does not automatically mean it will downgrade America’s creditworthiness, it increases the chances. Even the prospect of a US downgrade could hurt Americans’ investment portfolios, make it even more expensive for them to borrow money, and make it more costly for the government to pay off its debts.
These effects would likely be even more painful if Moody’s does eventually downgrade the US debt. The nation’s diminished fiscal strength, undone by extreme partisanship in Washington, was a key driver of the action, according to a statement from Moody’s.
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YET: Here is where the major benchmarks ended on Friday:
The S&P 500 Index was up 67.89 points (1.6%) at 4,415.24, up 1.3% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 391.16 points (1.2%) at 34,283.10, up 0.7% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite was up 276.66 points (2.1%) at 13,798.11, up 2.4% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was down about 1 basis point at 4.622%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.11 at 14.20.
Nearly every market sector gained Friday, with semiconductors and other tech shares leading the pack. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) jumped more than 4% to its highest level in more than two months. Consumer discretionary and energy companies were also strong, the latter thanks to a nearly-2% gain in crude oil futures.
But small-caps continued to lag their bigger counterparts, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rising 1.1% Friday, though it was still down 3.1% for the week.
Posted on October 17, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Neuberger Berman is submitting a shareholder proposal to Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., advocating for an end to the dual-class voting structure at the company ahead of a spinoff of its studio business.
The investment manager owns 0.02% of the company’s class A shares and 4.4% of the non-voting class B shares, according to a statement and Bloomberg calculations. Neuberger Berman, which has been a shareholder since 2016, submitted a proposal after having sent a letter to Lions Gate’s board last month.
Neuberger Berman said “one share, one vote” is a foundational principle of corporate governance and that dual-class structures are inconsistent with market practice with a 7% adoption among S&P 500 companies. It also said the structure may impair value and increase risk as it complicates capital structure and gives certain shareholder outsized influence.
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said higher interest rates may persist, while insisting the US economy is “in a good place.” The interest on US debt, which stands at 98% of economic output, “remains manageable,” Yellen said on Monday in an interview with Sky News. “Higher interest rates may persist although that’s not clear,” she said. “Our fiscal situation is by no means unsolvable. We have to be attentive to it.”
LinkedIn said Monday it is laying off hundreds of employees amounting to about 3% of the social media company’s workforce. The Microsoft-owned career network is cutting about 668 roles across its engineering, product, talent and finance teams. “Talent changes are a difficult, but necessary and regular part of managing our business,” the company said in a statement.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was up 45.85 points (1.1%) at 4,373.63; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 314.25 points (0.9%) at 33,984.54; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 160.75 points (1.2%) at 13,567.98.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 8 basis points at 4.71%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 2.06 at 17.26.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains in Monday’s broad-based upswing, led by the S&P Retail Select Industry Index (SPSIRE), which surged 2.7%.
Regional banks and transportation shares were also among the strongest performers. Energy stocks held firm even as WTI crude oil futures slipped over 1%.
Posted on June 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The end of debt standoff and a stronger-than-expected jobs report helped boost the Dow to its biggest gain in over six months, while the NASDAQ is near a 14-month high.
Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was up 61.35 points (1.5%) at 4282.37, near a 10-month high; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 701.19 (2.1%) at 33,762.76; the NASDAQ Composite was up 139.78 (1.1%) at 13,240.77.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 9 basis points at 3.695%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 1.07 at 14.58.
Financial companies were among the strongest performers Friday, with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) rising more than 6%.
Oilfield services companies and others in the energy sector were also strong, as crude oil futures extended a recent rally above $70 per barrel. Volatility measures dropped as the debt ceiling deal removed a source of uncertainty, with the VIX hitting its lowest level since July 2021.
Though individual borrowers are expected to pay off debts, the same isn’t true for governments, Paul Krugman argued in a column for the New York Times last week. That’s because unlike people, governments don’t die, and they gain more revenue with each passing generation. “Governments, then, must service their debts – pay interest and repay principal when bonds come due – but they don’t necessarily have to pay them off; they can issue new bonds to pay principal on old bonds and even borrow to pay interest as long as overall debt doesn’t rise too much faster than revenue,” he added.
Posted on May 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Happy Summer 2023
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Key negotiators struck an agreement in principle Saturday night to extend the debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic default, just days before the Treasury Department says the U.S. could run out of money, according to three Republican sources. The deal — which will raise the federal debt limit in exchange for cuts to spending — still has to be converted into legislative language and pass both the Republican-led House and Democratic-controlled Senate. It follows weeks of negotiations led by President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, amid demands by the GOP to extract spending cuts in exchange for allowing the nation to continue to pay the bills.
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Nvidia published thunderous first quarter earnings and shared insane forecasts for the second quarter that fueled its stock in after-hours trading. Nvidia shares, which closed at $305.38, soared nearly 29% to $393.49. This spectacular surge put Nvidia close to the symbolic threshold of $1 trillion in market value ($972 billion). Nvidia (NVDA) – Get Free Report said, in a statement, it expects revenue of around $11 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the second quarter of its fiscal year. This figure is about $4 billion higher than analysts’ expectations of $7.15 billion.
Posted on May 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The value of the US tech company Nvidia has soared by a quarter after it predicted a boom in demand for its computer chips to meet the needs of artificial intelligence products such as ChatGPT. Nvidia’s share price rose by 25% in early trading on the back of the announcement, and gave it a market valuation of more than $940bn (£760bn) after stock markets opened on Wall Street on Thursday, up from $755bn on Wednesday evening. The share price had already more than doubled over the course of 2023, amid huge optimism over the rapid progress of generative AI products. These require massive data centers full of semiconductor chips to operate.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500® Index was up 36.04 points (0.9%) at 4151.28; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 35.27 (0.1%) at 32,764.65; the NASDAQ Composite was up 213.93 (1.7%) at 12,698.09.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 10 basis points at 3.823%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 1.01 at 19.02.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also rose more than 4% to near a 14-month high, while the NASDAQ-100 hit a 13-month high. Transportation stocks were also higher. Oilfield services companies were among the weakest performers as crude oil futures fell more than 3%.
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US credit rating called into question
Credit rating agency Fitch just warned that the fight over the debt ceiling could force it to question the US’ perfect credit rating. It said it had put the nation’s triple-A credit rating on “rating watch negative,” meaning it’s poised for a downgrade if lawmakers can’t work things out. Even negotiations that drag on too long before a deal is reached could trigger a downgrade: That’s what happened in 2011, when S&P dinged the US’ credit over default fears. S&P still hasn’t returned the nation’s score to its highest rating.
Posted on May 23, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Talks were “productive,” but no debt ceiling deal yet
As the US careens toward a June 1st deadline to avoid default, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met last night and failed to reach an agreement to prevent economic chaos. Still, McCarthy called their discussion “productive” and “professional,” saying the tone was “better than any other time we’ve had discussions.”
Before the meeting, McCarthy acknowledged that a deal must be struck this week in order to get it through Congress prior to the deadline, but the two sides remain far apart on the Republican’s demands for spending cuts.
Posted on May 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned this week that the government could run out of cash to cover its expenses as early as June 1st. Congress can avert the looming economic catastrophe by authorizing more government borrowing so the US can keep paying its bills and avoid an unprecedented default on its financial obligations.
But with the deadline just weeks away, lawmakers are locked in a game of chicken.
Republicans in Congress say they won’t increase the debt limit without budget cuts. Last month, the GOP-controlled House passed a bill that would lift the borrowing cap and slash government spending by around $3.2 trillion over 10 years.
But that bill is DOA in the Democrat-led Senate. Democrats insist the debt limit should be raised with no strings attached.
If the US does run out of money…look out. The Treasury would have a range of extremely bad to absolutely terrible belt-tightening options, including delaying payments to federal contractors and Social Security recipients, all to avoid falling behind on interest payments for Treasury bonds.
Posted on January 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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As the US just crashed into the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling as the Treasury Department began taking what it called “extraordinary measures” to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts and sparking an economic crisis.
These measures are a series of deep-cut accounting moves that allow the Treasury to continue making its payments. They include:
Suspending reinvestments into government funds for retired federal employees, such as the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund.
Selling existing investments in those funds to free up more outstanding debt.
And while these measures definitely aren’t ordinary…they probably aren’t so “extra,” either. The Treasury has resorted to them more than 12 times since 1985, including during the last debt-ceiling standoff in 2021.
Still, these steps amount to chugging water after eating a ghost pepper—the pain will return. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her extraordinary measures will last through early June, giving lawmakers about five months to work out a deal to raise the debt ceiling.
NOTE: The US has never defaulted on its debt, but even the threat of it could be disastrous. The country’s first credit downgrade in history came during a debt-ceiling showdown in 2011.
Posted on January 16, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The U.S. Financial Markets will be closed today, Monday January 16th 2023, for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
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This federal holiday was first observed in 1986. In 1994, Congress passed the King Holiday and Service Act, designating the Martin Luther King Jr. Federal Holiday as a national day of service and charged the Corporation for National and Community Service with leading this effort.
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House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer just said he hoped a U.S. debt default could be avoided. A default would greatly impact the economy and people in the U.S: A default would increase interest rates, which would then increase prices and contribute to inflation. The stock market would also suffer, as U.S. investments would not be seen as safe as they once were, especially if the U.S. credit rating was downgraded. Fortunately, the U.S. has never reached the point of default where the Treasury was incapable of paying U.S. debt obligations, though it has been close on several occasions. The only exception was during the War of 1812 when parts of Washington D.C. including the Treasury were burned.
Posted on October 1, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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BY MORNING BREW
The Legend of the $1 Trillion Platinum Coin
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You may have heard that a deadline to suspend the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching, and if lawmakers don’t do anything it could lead to “economic catastrophe,” in the words of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
But what if we told you there was a solution to the debt ceiling fiasco so crazy…it just might work?
The solution: Yellen could have the Treasury mint a $1 trillion platinum coin, deposit it at the Fed to “retire” loads of US federal debt, and then enable the government to carry on with business as usual without having to worry about defaulting on its existing debt.
“The Secretary may mint and issue platinum bullion coins and proof platinum coins in accordance with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations, and inscriptions as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe from time to time.”
The law is crystal clear, and has been deemed kosher by numerous academics. “The statute clearly does authorize the issuance of trillion-dollar coins,” Laurence Tribe, a Harvard Law professor, told Washington Monthly back in 2013.
In fact, nothing says we have to stop at $1 trillion. Yellen could go big with a $10 trillion coin, hypothetically. As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal explains, none of this would lead to inflation because it’s merely an “accounting trick”—not an influx of money into the economy.
Have we tried this before? The $1 trillion platinum coin idea seems to pop up every time the US faces a debt ceiling crunch. It was first introduced by a Georgia lawyer in 2010 and gained traction during the debt-ceiling crisis of 2011.
Things really turned up in 2013, when the government was…you guessed it, facing another debt ceiling deadline. The hashtag #MintTheCoin became popular on Twitter, and economists like Paul Krugman advocated for unleashing the coin. “If we have a crisis over the debt ceiling, it will be only because the Treasury Department would rather see economic devastation than look silly for a couple of minutes,” he wrote.
But each time the $1 trillion coin is mentioned as a way of resolving debt ceiling problems, the people in charge dismiss it as a distraction from Congress doing its job. “Neither the Treasury nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to produce platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit,” The Treasury wrote during…well, yes, another debt ceiling emergency in 2015.
As for our current predicament, the Biden administration rejected the minting of the $1 trillion coin yet again last week.
Bottom line: Perhaps some enterprising future Treasury Secretary will manifest the platinum coin into existence, but for now it remains as mythical as Camelot.