DAILY UPDATE: Coca-Cola and Pfizer as Stock Markets Rise

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Coca-Cola rose 0.84% after the beverage behemoth beat earnings expectations. Not only that, it also doubled down on its forward-looking guidance, saying that revenue will grow 5% to 6% while comparable earnings per share will jump 2% to 3% in 2025. Tariff mania may raise some costs, but the company said it would be “manageable,” putting it a step ahead of arch-rival PepsiCo.

Pfizer jumped 3.28% today after the pharma giant announced that it expects to cut costs by about $7.7 billion by the end of 2027 thanks to advances in AI and automation. Despite lower sales in Q1, the company managed to keep its 2025 revenue guidance of $61 billion to $64 billion intact. While that forecast takes into account the $150 million blow from tariffs, it does not include any future tariffs (which President Trump has threatened to slap on the pharma industry).—LB

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What’s up

  • Meta Platforms gained 0.85% after the social media giant announced it will launch a standalone AI app to compete with ChatGPT. Expect more details in its earnings call tomorrow.
  • JetBlue Airways may have pulled guidance, but investors like the airline’s lower-than-expected loss last quarter so pushed shares 2.70% higher.
  • SoFi Technologies rose 0.53% after it crushed analyst expectations on both the top and bottom line.
  • Speaking of fintech, PayPal climbed 2.14% thanks in no small part to a 20% pop in Venmo revenue.
  • Honeywell International gained 5.40% thanks to strong earnings and sales for the manufacturing conglomerate.
  • Deutsche Bank climbed 4.08% after Germany’s largest lender reported a 39% increase in profit last quarter.
  • Sherwin-Williams may have missed on revenue last quarter, but the paint company beat earnings estimates and kept its forward guidance intact, so shareholders pushed it up 4.80%.
  • Royal Caribbean eked out a 0.02% despite reporting record bookings and boosting its profit outlook, a rare move these days amid tariff uncertainty.
  • Leggett & Platt may not be a household name, but it sells household goods—and the bedding company’s solid earnings and strong fiscal guidance sent shares 31.73% higher.

What’s down

  • General Motors fell 0.64% after the automaker beat on top and bottom line estimates but warned that it will have to pull its forward guidance and suspend stock buybacks.
  • Spotify dropped 3.04% despite active monthly users rising 10% last quarter. The problem, believe it or not, was lower guidance.
  • Regeneron lost 6.87% thanks to disappointing sales for its hit eye drug Eylea.
  • NXP Semiconductors may have beaten analyst estimates last quarter, but management’s lower-than-expected earnings guidance disappointed investors, and pushed shares 6.94% lower.
  • Wolfspeed tumbled 15.98% after the chipmaker’s impressive short squeeze rally fizzled out.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Crowdstrike Price, Banks and Healthcare

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CrowdStrike saw its share price plummet Friday, although it is still up ~24% YTD. At $74.2 billion, CrowdStrike has the second-largest market cap in the IT security industry, behind only Palo Alto Networks ($107.1 billion), and reported $900 million in revenue for the quarter ending in April, per Reuters. It’s got ~29,000 customers, which is part of why the outage caused so much havoc.

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Crowdstrike Banks: Some traders at JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bloomberg, and other financial institutions couldn’t execute orders yesterday morning, with one unnamed senior trader telling the Financial Times that it was “the biggest upset in years.”

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Crowdstrike Healthcare: Many hospitals—including some of the largest in Europe and the US—were forced to cancel all elective operations, routine appointments, and walk-ins, and online portals for most UK general practitioners went down.

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DAILY UPDATE: Impending C.P.I. and UPS

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US Economists just polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast a mild 0.2% in increase in consumer prices in the first month of 2024. The inflation rate in the past 12 months would decelerate to 2.9% from a prior 3.4%. If forecasters are right, it would mark the first time the CPI has fallen below 3% in almost three years.

The drama in the report, if there’s any, is likely to come from the more closely followed core CPI that omits food and energy prices. The core rate is viewed as a better predictor of future inflation. Wall Street expects the core rate to rise 0.3% — the upper limit of what the Fed would find tolerable in the short run. The 12-month increase in the core rate could also dip to 3.7% from 3.9%.

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UPS, the shipping giant, which forecast weak demand for parcel delivery in 2024, has said it plans to lay off 12,000 employees to save $1 billion in costs. It’s also mulling a sale of its Coyote brokerage unit.

This shocking announcement was made on January 30th and comes just six months after unionized UPS workers landed a “lucrative” new labor deal, which will see delivery drivers earning an average of $170,000 in annual pay and benefits by the end of the five years. “2023 was a unique, and quite candidly, difficult and disappointing year,” said UPS CEO Carol Tomé during the company’s earnings call. “We experienced declines in volume, revenue and operating profits and all three of our business segments.”

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Unchanged

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Stocks rose yesterday as investors mulled earnings reports that beat expectations from companies like Palantir and Spotify. But not every company had good news to share: Snap plunged after hours when it reported less revenue than expected and said the Middle East conflict was a headwind to growth. Meanwhile, New York Community Bancorp fell to its lowest since 1997, and Moody’s downgraded it to junk.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 11.42 points (0.2%) to 4,954.23; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) gained 141.24 points (0.4%) to 38,521.36; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP)added 11.32 points (0.1%) to 15,609.00.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell about 7 basis points to 4.089%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) dropped 0.60 to 13.07.

Transportation shares were among the strongest performers Tuesday behind strength in United Parcel Service (UPS), which jumped 4.8% following an analyst upgrade. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) rose 2.1% to end at its highest level since late December. Energy shares also firmed as WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures gained 1%. 

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DAILY UPDATE: The Markets, Retail Earnings and US Steel

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.Markets: The market’s rally during the first half of the year has fizzled out this summer despite a greater share of companies beating earnings projections than usual, the WSJ reports. For example, UPS, Apple, and PayPal all topped Wall Street expectations…only to watch shares fall after their reports. Investors suggest it’s a “snap back to reality” moment after market euphoria in H1.

  • Retailers take the earnings stage. Walmart, Home Depot, and Target will give us a peek into consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of the US economy. Americans filling up their shopping carts (despite interest rates rising to a 22-year high) is one of the main reasons those recession predictions haven’t materialized yet.
  • US Steel, a symbol of American industrial might in the early 20th century, is considering selling itself.

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DAILY UPDATE: The CARES Act and the MARKETS

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The CARES Act, a COVID relief law that was enacted in March of 2020, made it easier to pull money from one’s 401(k) or IRA It allowed people to take up to $100,000 out of their accounts and have three years to pay it back without the normal 10% early withdrawal penalty and tax payment. For Americans who needed cash quickly, their 401(k) was a tempting well to dip into that wouldn’t have been otherwise available.

In the spring of 2020, nearly 20% of all withdrawals from 401(k)’s, between April 6th and June 26th were related to COVID, according to CNBC. CNBC reported that at Fidelity Investments, the largest provider of 401(k) plans in the U.S., more than 700,000 people took from their 401(k) or their 403(b) plan. The median amount was about $5,000, while more than 18,000 people asked for the full $100,000 amount.

And Vanguard’s How America Saves report from 2021 found that more than 7% of people withdrew from their 401(k) or a 401(b) — similar to a 401(k) but available to not-for-profit companies — in 2020.

READ: https://oig.treasury.gov/cares-act

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Here is where the major indexes settled:

  • The S&P 500 Index was down 65.41 (1.6%) at 4071.63; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 344.57 (1.0%) at 33,530.83; the NASDAQ Composite was down 238.05 (2.0%) at 11,799.16.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 12 basis points at 3.394%.
  • CBOEs Volatility Index was up 1.99 at 18.92.

Transportation stocks also had a rough day after United Parcel Service’s (UPS) shares dropped some 10% after its results missed analysts’ forecasts. Energy companies were lower after WTI crude oil futures dropped under $77 a barrel for the first time this month. Small-cap companies, which are considered to have greater recession exposure than larger businesses, were also under pressure, with the Russell 2000 index falling more than 2% and nearing a five-week low.

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DAILY UPDATE: Credit Suisse Down While US Equities Mixed

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  • CREDIT SUISSE:
  • Equities revenue plummeted 95% in the fourth quarter
  • CS earlier informally looked at options for unit -sources
  • CS declined comment on ‘rumors and speculation’, and
  • In the latest piece of troubling news, the beleaguered Swiss bank delayed the publication of its 2022 annual report following a “late call” from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday evening. The SEC got in touch over revisions the bank had previously made to its cash flow statements for 2019 and 2020,

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U.S. equities finished mixed following yesterday’s rout, as investors digested a second day of testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Chairman remained hawkish in his commentary, where he suggested rates may need to accelerate more than initially expected and may need to stay higher for longer than originally anticipated. Adding to the uncertainty, the afternoon release of the Fed’s Beige Book showed little change from the last installment.

Treasury yields were mixed with the yield curve inversion worsening, and the U.S. dollar was flat after yesterday’s rally. Crude oil prices were lower, and gold was little changed in choppy action. News on the equity front was light, as CrowdStrike topped quarterly earnings estimates and offered upbeat guidance, while UPS reiterated its full-year outlook.

The economic calendar was tilted toward labor data, as job openings dipped but remained elevated, and ADP’s private sector employment report bested forecasts ahead of Friday’s key non-farm payroll release.

Elsewhere, mortgage applications snapped a three-week losing streak, and the trade deficit came in slightly smaller than projected. Asia finished mixed and Europe also diverged, as the global markets processed the testimony from Fed Chairman Powell.

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