TESLA: My Current Thoughts

Posted on April 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Tesla market value of $780 billion mostly reflects Elon’s future dreams, not car sales. The reality? Only $100-180 billion tied to the actual vehicle business.

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Current thoughts on Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla has a market capitalization as of this writing of $780 billion. It made around $14 billion of profit in 2023 and $7 billion in 2024. A good chunk of profit comes not from selling cars but from regulatory credits. It sold fewer cars in 2024 than in 2023. Unless we see a significant shift change in battery capacity, speed of charging, and improved quality and availability of charging infrastructure, we have reached peak EV penetration (I wrote about this earlier).

However, today Tesla is not trading based on car sales but on future dreams of self-driving robo-taxis, robots, semis, and whatever else Elon dreams up. The car company may be worth $100–180 billion; the rest is what investors are willing to pay for Elon’s dreams.

Quick thoughts on each dream:

Self-driving: I would not trust my life or my kids’ lives to a car company that only uses cameras. They are passive sensors that have limited range and are easily impacted by bad weather. I’ve used Tesla self-driving software – it is great most of the time, except when it’s not – and then it might kill you or others.

Robo-taxis: They may work in geo-fenced areas, but they pose a huge reputational risk to Tesla. One death and this business is done. That’s what happened to Uber’s self-driving business, and why Google’s Waymo has taken a much more conservative route. It uses radar/lidar and launched the service in geo-fenced areas first.

Semis: They were announced in 2017 and were going to hit the road the next year. They are still not out there. I suspect Elon is waiting for a breakthrough in battery technology.

Robots: Exciting, huge market, but this will be a crowded field.

New competition: There are lots of Chinese EVs invading Europe and the rest of the world. BYD looks like a real competitor.

China looked like a great opportunity for Tesla, but may turn into a liability if the trade war intensifies.

Finally, though at times he seems superhuman, Musk is constrained by the number of hours in the day. As of today he is running Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter (x.com), xAI (the maker of Grok – a ChatGPT competitor), The Boring Company, Neuralink, and oh, yes, DOGE. The EV market is getting more, not less, competitive.

Tesla needs an un-distracted Elon Musk.

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What is Corporate “ENTERPRISE” Financial Value?

Posted on September 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

THE E.V. MATH FORMULA

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By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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The enterprise value [EV] tends to be thought of as a theoretical takeover price if a company were to be bought. It is calculated as market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Enterprise value = common equity at market value (this line item is also known as “market cap”) + debt at market value (here debt refers to interest-bearing liabilities, both long-term and short-term) + minority interest at market value, if any + preferred equity at market value + unfunded pension liabilities and other debt-deemed provisions – value of associate companies – cash and cash equivalents.

MORE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_value

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DAILY UPDATE: Tesla Lay Offs, Mammograms, Physician Pay, UnitedHealth and Tele-Health as Stock Markets Close Mixed

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Stat: 10%. That’s the percentage of Tesla employees that will be impacted by its global workforce reduction. Elon Musk sent an email to employees on Monday informing them of the layoffs, which he said were made to “reduce costs and increase productivity,” according to the WSJ. The move comes as the electric vehicle maker deals with a wider slowdown in EV sales. (the Wall Street Journal)

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

UnitedHealth Group, reeling from the Change cyberattack, recorded a loss of $1.4 billion in the first quarter. Still, its EPS exceeded expectations and the stock is trading up.

The Florida Medicaid market is a big prize for insurers. Just three plans earned statewide contracts, starting in October.

And … physicians made steady pay gains last year, but increases were undercut by inflation rates. See how other specialties fared, according to a report from Medscape.

The social determinants of health can impact a woman’s chance of being up to date with her mammogram, according to a recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report. Women are less likely to get a mammogram if they feel socially isolated, have lost a job or don’t have reliable transportation.

And…A major House subcommittee is considering whether to issue another short-term extension on telehealth flexibilities as they continue to evaluate cost and quality issues or to enact permanent changes to virtual care reimbursement.  The American Telemedicine Association is pushing Congress to make permanent the Medicare telehealth flexibilities implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) declined 10.41 points (0.2%) to 5,051.41, its lowest close in almost two months; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) advanced 63.86 points (0.2%) to 37,798.97; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) eased 19.77 points (0.1%) to 15,865.25.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield gained almost 4 basis points to 4.667%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.83 to 18.40.

Scaled-back expectations for Fed rate cuts continued to burden interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as banks and utilities. The KBW Regional Bank Index (KRX) lost 1.4% and ended near a five-month low. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) dropped 0.4% and ended at a two-month low.

In other markets, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) strengthened for the fifth consecutive trading day and hit its highest level since late October, reflecting expectations rates will stay elevated. 

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

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INVESTING: Putting a Charge Back into the EV Market

Posted on March 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Over the last few months, electric car sales seem to have gone from hot to cold. Hertz is dumping 20% of its 100,000 Tesla fleet, and Ford is cutting production of its F-150 Lightning. Tesla has gone from raising prices to cutting them. In fact, Tesla is reducing prices so much that the CEO of Stellantis (a merger between Fiat and Peugeot) has expressed concern that if other automakers join Tesla CEO Elon Musk in implementing similar cuts, it will result in a bloodbath for the industry.

And so, are electric cars a fad, like beanie babies, pet rocks, or fidget spinners?
The short answer is no. The full answer comes with a lot of nuance. READ HERE:

Putting a Charge Back into the EV Market

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