US TREASURY: Short Term T-Notes Auction

Posted on November 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Even though the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision yesterday, Jerome Powell wasn’t the government official investors were most anxious to hear from.

Instead, he was upstaged by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who gave an update on the size of upcoming bond auctions. Although many were concerned about the US selling new debt into a market where interest rates are high and demand for bonds has flagged (pushing yields way up), the market liked what she had to say.

Yellen explained that the government would focus on shorter-term notes rather than longer-term ones, which prompted a rally for 10 and 30 year bonds.

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DAILY UPDATE: The Turkish Lira Plunges, Janet Yellen Speaks and the Markets Diverge

Posted on June 8, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Turkey’s lira plunged 7% to a record low yesterday in its biggest selloff since a historic 2021 crash, a move traders said is a “strong signal” that Ankara is moving away from state controls toward a freely traded currency. The currency has come under increasing pressure since President Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected on May 28. It was trading at 23.18 against the dollar at 1500 GMT, after touching a record low of 23.19, bringing its losses this year to around 20%.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in her first interview since the U.S. debt-ceiling was lifted last week by Congress, warned on Wednesday about the potential for banks to feel strain from their exposure to weakening commercial real estate valuations. Yellen was asked by CNBC “Squawk Box” host Andrew Ross Sorkin about if she’s worried about the state of estimated $20.7 trillion commercial real-estate market, particularly the office, and if weakness in the sector could potentially spark more bank failures.

“Well, I do think that there will be issues with respect to commercial real estate,” Yellen said. “Certainly, the demand for office space since we’ve seen such a big change in attitudes and behavior toward remote work has changed and especially in an environment of higher interest rates.”

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The equities market diverged today between a small handful of strong-performing mega-cap companies, which delivered most of the gains recently in the big benchmark indexes, and the lagging majority. Such concentration suggests a weakness below the headline numbers that could become a problem down the line.

Here is where the major benchmarks ended today:

  • The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was down 16.33 points (0.4%) at 4267.52; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 91.74 (0.3%) at 33,665.02; the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) was down 171.52 (1.3%) at 13,104.90.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 9 basis points at 3.791%.
  • CBOEs Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.04 at 13.92.

Smaller financial companies were also in the spotlight again, with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) continuing its rebound with a nearly 4% jump. Energy stocks were also strong as crude oil futures climbed more than 1%, and transportation companies also gained. Communication Services led decliners among S&P 500 sectors.

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USA nears DEFAULT while Europe INFLATES!

Posted on May 2, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned yesterday that the US could run out of money to pay all its bills as early as June 1st if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before then. The US’ first-ever default would be disastrous for financial markets, economists say.

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Meanwhile, Europe’s painful inflation has inched higher, extending the squeeze on households and keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to unleash what could be another large interest rate increase. Consumer prices in the 20 countries using the euro currency jumped 7% in April from a year earlier, just up from the annual rate of 6.9% in March, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat said today. Food price inflation eased a little, falling to an annual rate of 13.6% from March’s 15.5%, while energy prices rose a more modest 2.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel, slowed slightly but was still high at 5.6%, underlining the expectation that the ECB will press ahead with its campaign to beat inflation into submission with rate hikes.

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The U.S. Debt Ceiling

Posted on January 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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As the US just crashed into the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling as the Treasury Department began taking what it called “extraordinary measures” to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts and sparking an economic crisis.

These measures are a series of deep-cut accounting moves that allow the Treasury to continue making its payments. They include:

  • Suspending reinvestments into government funds for retired federal employees, such as the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund.
  • Selling existing investments in those funds to free up more outstanding debt.

And while these measures definitely aren’t ordinary…they probably aren’t so “extra,” either. The Treasury has resorted to them more than 12 times since 1985, including during the last debt-ceiling standoff in 2021.

Still, these steps amount to chugging water after eating a ghost pepper—the pain will return. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her extraordinary measures will last through early June, giving lawmakers about five months to work out a deal to raise the debt ceiling.

NOTE: The US has never defaulted on its debt, but even the threat of it could be disastrous. The country’s first credit downgrade in history came during a debt-ceiling showdown in 2011.

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FOMC: Treasuries the Next Financial Crisis?

Posted on October 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasury market might be the source of the next financial crisis. Then last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged concerns about a potential breakdown in the trading of government debt and expressed worry about “a loss of adequate liquidity in the market.” Now, strategists at BofA Securities have identified a list of reasons why U.S. government bonds are exposed to the risk of “large scale forced selling or an external surprise” at a time when the bond market is in need of a reliable group of big buyers.

“We believe the UST market is fragile and potentially one shock away from functioning challenges” arising from either “large scale forced selling or an external surprise,” said BofA strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and Adarsh Sinha. “A UST breakdown is not our base case, but it is a building tail risk.”

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Second Guessing the FED

Posted on January 2, 2016 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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A HISTORICAL CHAIR REVIEW

Art

By Arthur Chalekian GEPC

[Elite Financial Partners]

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AN AGE OLD AMERICAN PASTIME

Americans have been speculating about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy choices – rate hikes, rate declines, quantitative easing, etc. – for a long time. It’s clear when you take a look at a few modern Fed Chairs and the Fed’s activities under their leadership.

Paul Volcker (1979-1987) took over an economic quagmire known as The Great Inflation. In the early 1980s, U.S. inflation was 14 percent and unemployment reached 9.7 percent. Volcker unexpectedly raised the Fed funds rate by 4 percent in a single month, following a secret and unscheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. His policies initially sent the country into recession. The St. Louis Fed reported “Wanted” posters targeted Volcker for “killing” so many small businesses. By the mid-1980s, employment and inflation reached targeted levels.

Alan Greenspan (1987-2006) was in charge through two U.S. recessions, the Asian financial crisis, and the September 11 terrorist attacks. Regardless, he oversaw the country’s longest peacetime expansion. In the late 1990s, when financial markets were bubbly, critics suggested, “…Mr. Greenspan’s monetary policies spawned an era of booms and busts, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis.”

Ben Bernanke (2006-2014) took the helm of the Fed just before the financial crisis and Great Recession. When economic growth collapsed in 2007, the Fed lowered rates and adopted unconventional monetary policy (quantitative easing) in an effort to stimulate economic growth. In 2012, economist Paul Krugman called Bernanke out in The New York Times, “…the fact is that the Fed isn’t doing the job many economists expected it to do, and a result is mass suffering for American workers.”

Janet Yellen (2014-present) is the current Chairwoman of the Fed. Under Yellen’s leadership, after providing abundant guidance, the Fed raised rates for the first time in seven years. The International Business Times reported several prominent economists think the increase was premature, in part, because there are few signs of inflation in the U.S. economy.

Assessment 

In many cases, it’s difficult to gauge the achievements and/or failures of a leader – Fed Chairperson, President, Congressman, or Congresswoman – until the economic or political dust settles. Sometimes, that’s long after they’ve left office.  

Conclusion

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