DEFLATION: Another Holiday Surprise?

Posted on December 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Deflation could be arriving this holiday season. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon recently said deflation may be on the horizon, citing a decline in the prices of grocery items such as chicken and eggs. McMillion said that although some items like beef remain expensive, he expects prices on other staples to come down in the coming months.

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It’s the latest welcome news for everyone feeling the squeeze from inflation and rising interest rates.

  • Target Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington said earlier this week that the average price of basics fell three percentage points between Q2 and Q3.
  • JCPenney announced last month that it planned to keep prices for Black Friday the same or lower than last year.

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DAILY UPDATE: Deflation Pending as Stock Markets Gain

Posted on December 8, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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After grappling with high inflation for more than two years, American consumers are now seeing an economic trend that many might only dimly remember: falling prices — but only on certain types of products. 

Deflation is impacting so-called durable goods, or products that are meant to last more than three years, Wall Street Journal reporter David Harrison told CBS News. As Harrison noted in his reporting, durable goods have dropped on a year-over-year basis for five straight months and dropped 2.6% in October from their September 2022 peak.

These items are products such as used cars, furniture and appliances, which saw big run-ups in prices during the pandemic. Used cars in particular were a pain point for U.S. households, with pre-owned cars seeing their prices jump more than fifty percent in the first two years of the pandemic.

Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 36.25 points (0.8%) at 4,585.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 62.95 points (0.2%) at 36,117.38; the NASDAQ Composite was up 193.28 points (1.4%) at 14,339.99.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 2 basis points at 4.144%.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.09 at 13.06.

Tech sector strength was highlighted by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which gained nearly 3%. Financial shares were also among the strongest performers, as the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose 2% and ended at a four-month high. In other markets, WTI crude oil futures (/CL) posted the market’s first gain in six days after earlier dropping to its lowest level since late June.

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JEROME POWELL: Speaks On “Premature” Interest Rate Cuts

Posted on December 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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With the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation looking like they’ve finally come to an end thanks to encouraging data on prices falling, investors are starting to look forward to when the central bankers start slashing rates again.

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But Jerome Powell sought to pour some cold water on the rate cut hype cycle during a speech at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia yesterday, saying that it was too soon “to speculate on when policy might ease.” However, investors still think he’ll come around: Markets are putting the odds that the Fed will cut rates in March above 50% and are totally convinced it’ll happen by May, according to Bloomberg.

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UPDATE: Deflation with August Stock Round-Up?

Posted on September 1, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Inflation is starting to “drop like a rock” rather than a feather, leading to outright deflation in some areas of the economy, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a note. A slowdown in rising inflation would be welcome news to investors given that the stock market has sold off 5% since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole last week. Powell reiterated the Fed’s resolve to tame inflation by being aggressive with interest rate hikes and a reduction to its $9 trillion balance sheet. The market currently expects another outsized 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed at its FOMC meeting in late September. If inflation cools and is less “sticky” than most expect, it could change the Fed’s current interest rate hike trajectory, ultimately leading to a faster pivot towards a pause in rate hikes. That would be a boon for risk assets, which have been stymied in recent months by fast rising interest rates.

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U.S. stocks ended the month with their fourth straight daily decline cementing the weakest August performance in seven years as worries about aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve persist. Adding to pressure were declines in the technology sector, and more specifically chip-makers, after soft forecasts from Seagate and HP Inc. The three main indexes suffered their biggest monthly percentage declines in August since 2015. After hitting a four-month high in mid-August, the S&P 500 has stumbled in recent weeks, dropping more than 7% through the close and falling through several closely watched technical support levels.

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