PURE: Absolute Risks of Physicians

Posted on September 19, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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What Is Pure Risk?

Pure risk is a category of risk that cannot be controlled and has two outcomes: complete loss or no loss at all. There are no opportunities for gain or profit when pure risk is involved. Pure risk is generally prevalent in situations such as natural disasters, fires, or death. These situations cannot be predicted and are beyond anyone’s control. Pure risk is also referred to as absolute risk.

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1. Personal Risks

Now, there are basically 3 types of pure risks that concern individual physicians. These incur losses like loss of income, additional expenses and devaluation of property. There are 4 risk factors affecting them:

  • Premature death. This is death of a breadwinner who leaves behind financial responsibilities.
  • Old age / retirement. The risk of being retired without sufficient savings to support retirement years.
  • Health crisis. Individual with health problem may face a potential loss of income and increase in medical expenditures.
  • Unemployment. Jobless individual may have to live on their savings. If savings are depleted, a bigger crisis is awaiting.

2. Property Risks

This means the possibility of damage or loss to the property owned due to some cause. There are two types of losses involved.

  • Direct loss which means financial loss as a result of property damage.
  • Consequential loss which means financial loss due to the happenings of direct loss of the property.

For instance, a medical practice that burned down may incur repair costs as the direct loss. The consequential loss is being unable to run the practice business to generate income.

3. Liability Risks

A doctor is legally liable to his wrongful act that cause damage to a third party; physically, by reputation or property. S/he can be legally sued with no maximum in the compensation amount if found guilty.

Knowing how risks are classified, and the types of pure risks an individual is exposed to, will provide a fundamental overview on these risk topics and prepare you to further acquire the knowledge of how to deal with and manage them as a physician executive, leader, or manager.

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APPLE: What is its Corporate Value

Posted on July 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

AS INVESTORS – HOW DO WE EVALUATE FINANCIAL RISK?

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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READ: https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/what-is-the-value-of-apple-how-do?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

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#5: The Six Commandments of Value Investing

Posted on March 11, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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5. Risk is a permanent loss of capital (not volatility)

Conventional wisdom views volatility as risk. Not value investors. We befriend volatility, embrace it, and try to take advantage of it. For someone who has not researched a company, it is not readily apparent whether a decline in shares is temporary or permanent. After all, if you don’t know what the company is worth, the quoted price becomes the quotient of intrinsic value. If you do know what the company is worth, then the change in intrinsic value is all that is going to matter. The price quoted on the exchange will be your friend, allowing you to take advantage of the difference between intrinsic value and quoted stock price. If the quoted stock price is significantly cheaper than your estimated intrinsic value, you buy it (or buy more of it if you already own it). If the opposite is true, you sell it.

What is a company worth?

Determining the intrinsic value requires a combination of art and science, in that order – it is not quoted on the exchanges. We go about this the same way a businessman would figure how much he’d want to pay for a gas station or a McDonald’s franchise. Analysis of each company will be different, but at the core we estimate the cash flows the business will produce for shareholders in the long run (at least ten years) and what the business will be worth then (based on our estimate of its earnings power at the time). The combination of the two provides us an approximation of what the business is worth now. To further embed “the right” type of risk analysis into our investment operating system, we build financial models. Models help us to understand businesses better and provide insights as to which metrics matter and which don’t. They allow us to stress test the business: We don’t just look at the upside but spend a lot of times looking at the downside – we try to “kill” the business. We look at known risks and try to imagine unknown ones; we try to quantify their impact on cash flows. This “killing” helps to us understand how much of a discount (margin of safety) we should demand to what the business is worth. By applying this discount to fair value, we arrive at a buy price. For every stock we buy we probably look at a few dozen (at least).

For instance, if we are looking at a company that is selling products or services to consumers, we’ll be focusing on customer-acquisition costs. We try to drill down to the essential operating metrics of each company. If it’s a convenience store retailer, we’ll look into gallons of gas sold and profit per gallon. If it’s an oil driller, we’ll look at utilization rates, rigs in service, average revenue per rig per day. If it’s a pharmaceuticals company, we’ll have revenue lines for each major drug it sells and model the company for the eventuality that patents will run out. (Revenues usually decline 80-90% when a patent expires).

These models help us to understand the economics of the business. We usually build two type of models. We start with what we call the “tablecloth” model. This is a very detailed, in-depth model that zeros in on different aspects of the business. But the risk we run with a tablecloth model is that we get lost in the trees and forget about the forest.

This brings us to our “napkin” model. It’s a much simpler and smaller model that focuses only on the essentials of the business. It is easier to build the tablecloth model than the “napkin.” If we can build a napkin model, that means we understand the drivers of the business – we understand what matters. Models are important because they help us remain rational. It is only the matter of time before a stock we own will “blow up” (or, in layman’s terms, decline).

In this type of analysis, what happens this month, this quarter, or even this year is only important in the context of the long run – unless the company’s good or bad earnings report in any quarter changes our assumptions on the company’s long-term cash flows. If you methodically focus on what the company is worth and if your Total IQ is maximized, then price fluctuations are just noise. Volatility becomes your friend because you can rationally take advantage of it. It’s an under-appreciated gift from Mr. Market.

Side Note: As an advisor, I feel it is one of my great responsibilities to be an honest and clear communicator. There is an asymmetry of information between us and our clients. We have invested weeks and months of research into the analysis of each stock; therefore, we have a good idea what each company is worth. Our clients have not done this research, and they should not have to – that is what they hired us to do.This is why we pour our heart and soul into our quarterly letters – we want to close this informational gap and so we try as hard as we can to explain what we think the companies in our portfolio are worth. Our letters are often 15-20 pages long. 

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Strategic Modern Portfolio Theory Considerations in Hospital Capital Formation

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Understanding Risk for Doctors and Financial Advisors

By Calvin W. Wiese; MBA, CPA

www.HealthcareFinancials.com

Hospital capital investments financial create risk. Risk is the uncertainty of future events. When hospitals make capital investments, they commit to costs that affect future periods. Those costs are known and relatively fixed. What are unknown are the benefits to be realized by those capital investments. For capital investments, risk is the certainty of future costs coupled with the uncertainty of future benefits. In some cases, while the future benefits are uncertain, there is a high degree of certainty that the benefits will exceed the costs. In these cases, risk can be very low.

Risk Re-Defined

Risk may be better defined as the degree to which the uncertainty of unknown benefits will exceed the known and committed costs. For example, when capital assets are purchased, both the burdens and the benefits of ownership are transferred to the owner. The burdens are primarily the costs associated with acquisition and installation. The benefits are primarily the revenues generated by operating the capital assets. Risk of ownership is created to the degree that the benefits are uncertain.

Managing Risk

Hospital managers and physician executives need to be skilled at putting hospital assets at risk. Without clear knowledge and understanding of the benefits and the burdens, hospitals can quickly find themselves at unacceptably high levels of risk. Risk must be continually assessed and evaluated in order to successfully put hospital assets at risk. Hospitals require many varied capital investments; their capital investments represent a risk portfolio. An effective combination of risky assets can often create risk that is less than the sum of the risk of each asset.

About MPT

Of course, financial managers have know this for years as a basic principle of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), first introduced by Harry Markowitz, PhD, with the paper “Portfolio Selection,” which appeared in the 1952 Journal of Finance. Thirty-eight years later, he shared a Nobel Prize with Merton Miller, PhD, and William Sharpe, PhD, for what has become a broad theory for securities asset selection; and hospital assets may be viewed as little different. Prior to Markowitz’s work, investors focused on assessing the rewards and risks of individual securities in constructing a portfolio. Standard advice was to identify those that offered the best opportunities for gain with the least risk and then construct a portfolio from them.

Following this advice, a hospital administrator might conclude that a positron emission tomography (PET) scanning machine offered good risk-reward characteristics, and pursue a strategy to compile a network of them in a given geographic area. Intuitively, this would be foolish. Markowitz formalized this intuition. Detailing the mathematics of diversity, he proposed that investors focus on selecting portfolios based on their overall risk-reward characteristics instead of merely compiling portfolios of securities, or capital assets that each individually has attractive risk-reward characteristics. In a nutshell, just as investors should select portfolios not individual securities, so hospital administrators should select a wide spectrum of radiology services, not merely machines.

Assessment

Savvy hospital managers will mitigate ownership risk by constructing their portfolio of risky assets in a manner that lowers overall risk.

Conclusion

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