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MARKETS: Weekly Recap

Posted on May 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Stock markets are coming off their worst week since April as President Trump’s tariff threats on Europe and Apple revived trade war jitters. The president has since delayed tariff threats on the EU, giving European stocks a boost yesterday, while Wall Street had the day off for Memorial Day.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/05/26/financial-paradox-compounding-interest-and-time/

No such relief appears to be coming for Apple, which has fallen 8% so far this month, and is the only Magnificent Seven member in the red for May, per FactSet.

Mag 7: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/07/30/the-magnificent-7-and-the-dangers-of-stock-market-hype/

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Still Struggling Downward

Posted on March 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Stocks inched up overnight after Monday’s ugly plunge to six-month lows, but positive catalysts were scattered and the rocky economy has begun affecting earnings forecasts. Delta Airlines (DAL) lowered its outlook yesterday amid what it called “macro uncertainty,” raising concerns it could be first on a crowded runway.

One theme as stocks plunged recently was that despite the suffering was that earnings outlooks remained strong. The latest FactSet forecasts for first quarter and 2025 S&P 500 earnings growth are 7.3% and 11.6%, respectively. Both are down from December 31st, though, and further setbacks in expectations could hurt confidence. Oracle (ORCL) missed analysts’ estimates late Monday. “The longer the tariff turmoil and related uncertainty about trade policy lasts, the more likely economic and earnings growth may take a hit,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Schwab.

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Job openings data later yesterday morning and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow could help set the tone, though economic growth seems to have replaced inflation as the prime concern. Yesterday’s steep losses reflected less confidence in either the administration or the Federal Reserve potentially stepping in to rescue a slumping economy. Growth fears have pummeled the Magnificent Seven, with six of them among the bottom 350 in S&P 500 index (SPX) year-to-date performance.

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For now, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) avoided correction territory but still fell about 0.8% to trade at just under 5,600. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed roughly 500 points, or 1.1%, dragged down by shares of Verizon (VZ). The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) reversed gains in the last few minutes of trading to fall about 0.2%. All three indexes closed at their lowest levels since September.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Filed under: Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Glossary Terms, Information Technology, Investing, Marcinko Associates, Sponsors | Tagged: DAL< Delta Airlines, DJIA, DOW, FactSet, Federal Reserve, FTC, Marcinko, NASA, NASDAQ, oracle, S&P 500, textbooks, TNX, VIX, WSJ | Leave a comment »

DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens to PE as CPI Upticks and Markets Blast Off this Morning

Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.

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Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time.

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US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Accounting, Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Information Technology, Investing, Marcinko Associates, Recommended Books, Sponsors | Tagged: CPI, DJIA, DOW, economics, economy, FactSet, finance, inflation, Investing, Marcinko, NASA, NASDAQ, pe, Private Equity, S&P 500, Sycamore Partners, textbooks, TNX, VIX, Walgreen's, WSJ, Yahoo Finance | Leave a comment »

DAILY UPDATE: Unemployment Rate, Banking Rules and Mental Health as the Markets Continue to Rise

Posted on September 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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After rising for more than a year, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. That dip matched Wall Street’s consensus forecast, but the 142,000 new jobs added fell short of the 160,000 that analysts had expected, according to FactSet data cited by CNN.

The Biden administration released a final rule this week that would require payers to cover behavioral health services, including addiction care, to the same extent that they’d cover all other forms of healthcare. The move comes amid a rising mental health crisis in the US and in light of the fact that the vast majority of people with substance use disorders don’t receive treatment.

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What’s up

Dave & Busters Entertainment popped 4.66% after announcing strong sales and earnings growth last quarter, along with opening 13 new locations (more tokens for everyone!).
Petco Health and Wellness roared 32.90% despite mixed earnings last quarter, though shareholders wagged their tails at new CEO Joel Anderson’s plans to improve profitability.
Viking Therapeutics rose 11.31% thanks to JP Morgan initiating coverage of the company with a bullish overweight rating.

What’s down

Bank of America slipped 0.71% after a new filing revealed that Warren Buffett sold more shares of the company last quarter.
Rentokil Initial plummeted 21.07% once the pest control company made it clear that slow sales and currency exchange rates will take a $105 million toll on full-year profits.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The SPX rose 59 points (1.0%) to 5,554.13; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) gained 125 points (0.3%) to 40,861.71; the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP)rose 370 points (2.17%) to 17,395.53.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed just under two basis points to 3.66%.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) fell to 17.7, the lowest close so far this month.

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Planned Fed rules are a win for big banks. The likes of JPMorgan and Bank of America celebrated the Fed walking back some of its proposals for tighter banking rules yesterday

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Drugs and Pharma, Ethics, Health Insurance, Information Technology, Investing, Marcinko Associates, Recommended Books, Sponsors | Tagged: Bank America, BLS, Bureau Labor Statistics, DJIA, DOW, FactSet, JPMorgan, Marcinko, mental health, NASA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, SPX, textbooks, TNX, unemployment rate, VIX, WSJ | Leave a comment »

Is the ARK Sinking?

Posted on July 17, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Stocks are rolling following a week that showed our inflation emergency seems to be ending, and big banks are still raking in big profits. The Fed’s so-called “soft landing” scenario—getting inflation down without tipping the economy into a recession—is a distinct possibility, as long as corporate finances don’t end up being shockingly bad this earnings season.
Global economy: While the US economy is chugging along, the same can’t be said for China. Growth in the world’s No. 2 economy hardly budged between the first and second quarters, while youth unemployment hit a record last month. Expect President Xi Jinping to make moves to juice China’s stagnating GDP.

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Curiously, Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund has rallied more than 50% this year. Investors are using that as an opportunity to get out.

They have pulled a net $717 million from the ARK Innovation ETF over the past 12 months, according to FactSet. That exodus marks a notable shift for a fund that had consistently drawn investor cash since its 2014 inception. Once the largest actively managed ETF with nearly $30 billion in assets under management, the fund has shrunk to roughly $9 billion, mostly due to investment losses.

Known by its ticker symbol ARKK, Wood’s fund became an investor darling shortly after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic with hugely successful bets on unprofitable and “disruptive” technology companies. It took in huge amounts of investor money, culminating with a $6.5 billion inflow in the first quarter of 2021, when its share price peaked.

Then, the Federal Reserve’s fastest interest-rate hiking campaign in decades crushed the valuations of unprofitable growth companies, which often attract investors when interest rates are low and returns on safer investments such as CDs are minimal. Shares of ARKK plunged 67% in 2022, but its investors largely held on or bought the dip.

Now, analysts say they expect some of those investors are getting out for good?

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/07/12/from-active-to-passive-investing/

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Breaking News, Experts Invited, Information Technology, Investing | Tagged: ARK, Ark Innovation, ARK sinking, ARKK, Cathie Wood, China, ETF, FactSet, GDP, Global Economy, markets, soft landing, Wood, Wood's ARK, Xi JinPing | Leave a comment »

DAILY UPDATE: About the Markets

Posted on April 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed, after the announcement of a surprise OPEC+ production cut sent crude oil prices to two-month highs and fueled inflation concerns that could keep the Federal Reserve in policy-tightening mode. This weekend, several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, announced production cuts totaling nearly 1.2 million barrels a day that are slated to start in May. In response, WTI crude futures soared above $80 a barrel. Word of the planned cuts also boosted expectations that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate again in May as the central bank extends efforts to tamp down inflation. The OPEC+ cuts “suggest more headline inflation pressure in the near-term,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. The potential for further waves of inflation will “keep central banks from declaring victory over excessive price gains,” he adds. “That’s another headwind for tech stocks and other ‘long duration’ equities that get more of their cash flow in the future than in the near term.”

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The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:

The S&P 500^® Index was up 15.2 (0.4%) at 4124.51, the highest close since Feb. 15; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 327 (1.0%) at 33601.15; the NASDAQ Composite was down 32.45 (0.3%) at 12189.45.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.417%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.14 at 18.56.

Oil producers and other energy companies led gainers Monday. Health care stocks also outperformed. Consumer discretionary and real estate were among the laggards.

Among individual stocks, Tesla (TSLA) shares tumbled over 6% following reports the electric car-maker delivered just 423,000 vehicles in the first quarter. Analysts had expected 430,000, according to research firm FactSet.

Looking ahead, medical companies, especially vaccine makers, may be worth watching this week with the World Vaccine Congress taking place in Washington, D.C. Some well-known vaccine makers include Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Late last month, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported a steep year-over-year decline in demand for COVID-19 vaccinations.

The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, while gold futures climbed above $2,000 per ounce to post their highest close in over two years.

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Breaking News, Funding Basics, Glossary Terms, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: CBOE, DJIA, DOW, FactSet, GSK, Moderna, NASDAQ, oil treasury yields, OPEC, S&P 500, stock markets, Tesla, Volatility Index, walgreens | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: Jobs Report & the 10 Year Treasury Yield

Posted on August 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The sizzling-hot July jobs report could force the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates at the fastest pace since 1994 as it tries to cool inflation and the labor market. U.S. employers unexpectedly added 528,000 jobs in July, a surprisingly strong gain that defied fears of a slowdown in labor markets as they confront scorching-hot inflation and rising interest rates. Wage growth also accelerated, surging by 0.5% in the one-month period from June. But the blowout jobs report, coupled with higher-than-expected wage growth, could ultimately pave the way to a third consecutive interest rate hike of 75 basis points — triple the usual size — when FOMC policymakers meet in September. Therefore, traders are already pricing in a 70% chance of another super-sized increase in the fall, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks trading.

And, the 10-year Treasury yield rose on the back of a stronger-than-expected jobs report for July. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2.83%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 10 basis points and trading at 3.068%. Meanwhile, the 2-year was up 20 basis points to 3.242%. Yields move inversely to prices. The data showed non-farm payrolls increase 528,000 last month and surpassed DJIA’s expectations of 258,000. At the same time, wage growth rose with average earnings climbing 0.5% for the month and 5.2% over last year. The stronger than anticipated report showed that the U.S. is not likely in a recession. This move marks a reversal from the recent trend that saw the 10-year yield trending lower on fears the Fed’s hiking campaign was tipping the economy into a recession. Earlier this week, the 10-year yield fell to 2.50% and its lowest since April, according to FactSet.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: 10 year note, 10 year treasury note, CME Group, FactSet, FedWatch, FOMC, jobs report | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: A Lackluster 2022 for Most Stock Market Sectors

Posted on April 4, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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It sure has been a wild ride for investors over the past few weeks, with the benchmark S&P 500 rising 10% from March 8th through March 30th. But the broader stock market is still down for 2022. Below is a list of 10 stocks that have fallen at least 20% this year, but are expected by analysts to rise as much as 66% over the next 12 months.

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Here’s a summary of performance, excluding dividends, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 for 2022 through March 30th, according to FactSet:

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Index	Price change – 2022 through March 30	Price change – 2021
Energy	39.6%	47.7%
Utilities	4.1%	14.0%
Financials	0.4%	32.5%
Industrials	-1.2%	19.4%
Consumer Staples	-1.2%	15.6%
Materials	-1.5%	25.0%
Health Care	-1.8%	24.2%
Real Estate	-5.8%	42.5%
Information Technology	-7.1%	33.4%
Consumer Discretionary	-7.4%	23.7%
Communication Services	-10.3%	20.5%
S&P 500	-3.4%	26.9%
Source: FactSet

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All sectors were down for 2022 through March 30th, except for energy and utilities, while the broad-based S&P 500 Index was down 3.4%.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: DJIA, FactSet, NASDAQ, S&P 500, stock market sectors | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: The Domestic Stock Markets and the Labor Department

Posted on March 10, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

WHAT A DAY!

By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 653.61 points, or 2%, to end at 33,286.25.
The S&P 500 gained 2.6%, or 107.18 points, finishing at 4,277.88, its best daily percentage gain since June 5, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced 3.6%, or 459.99 points, closing at 13,255.55, its best daily percentage gain since March 9, 2021.
The S&P 500 had dropped nearly 5% over the last four sessions.

LABOR DEPARTMENT: Will issue its inflation report, which economists expect will show that prices for U.S. consumers leapt 7.9% in February compared with a year ago, according to data provided by FactSet. That would be the biggest gain in four decades. Consumer prices jumped 7.5% in January from a year earlier. Shortages of supplies and workers, heavy doses of federal aid, ultra-low interest rates and robust consumer spending combined to send inflation accelerating in the past year.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Investing | Tagged: DJIA, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Market, FactSet, inflation, Investing, Labor Department, NASDAQ, NYSE, S&P, S&P 5000, stock markets | Leave a comment »

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