Rethinking Productivity in Wealth Management

By Vitaliy Katsenelsen CFA

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One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way.

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless emails, be on top of your portfolio (that is, check performance of your securities minute by minute), watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain. Our colleagues judge us on how early we arrive at work and how late we stay. We do these things because society expects us to, not because they make us better investors or do any good for our clients.

Somehow we let the mindless, Henry Ford–assembly-line, 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., widgets-per-hour mentality dictate how we conduct our business thinking. Though car production benefits from rigid rules, uniforms, automation and strict working hours, in investing — the business of thinking — the assembly-line culture is counterproductive. Our clients and employers would be better off if we designed our workdays to let us perform our best.

Investing is not an idea-­per-hour profession; it more likely results in a few ideas per year. A traditional, structured working environment creates pressure to produce an output — an idea, even a forced idea. Warren Buffett once said at a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: “We don’t get paid for activity; we get paid for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.”

How you get ideas is up to you. I am not a professional writer, but as a professional money manager, I learn and think best through writing. I put on my headphones, turn on opera and stare at my computer screen for hours, pecking away at the keyboard — that is how I think. You may do better by walking in the park or sitting with your legs up on the desk, staring at the ceiling.

I do my best thinking in the morning. At 3:00 in the afternoon, my brain shuts off; that is when I read my emails. We are all different. My best friend is a brunch person; he needs to consume six cups of coffee in the morning just to get his brain going. To be most productive, he shouldn’t go to work before 11:00 a.m.

And then there’s the business news. Serious business news that lacked sensationalism, and thus ratings, has been replaced by a new genre: business entertainment (of course, investors did not get the memo). These shows do a terrific job of filling our need to have explanations for everything, even random events that require no explanation (like daily stock movements). Most information on the business entertainment channels — Bloomberg Television, CNBC, Fox Business — has as much value for investors as daily weather forecasts have for travelers who don’t intend to go anywhere for a year.

Yet many managers have CNBC, Fox or Bloomberg TV/Internet streaming on while they work.

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Stocks, Commodities and Trade

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: Markets struggled to pick a direction as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of today’s CPI reading—even as Wall Street worries about the data’s reliability.
  • Trade: President Trump asked China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, to quadruple its soybean purchases from the US. He also extended the trade war truce with China by 90 days
  • Commodities: Gold had its worst day in three months as traders waited for the White House to clarify its new tariffs on the key commodity—only for Trump to announce that it won’t be tariffed at all. Meanwhile, Chinese battery giant CATL halted operations at a mine that produces 4% of the world’s lithium, sending prices of the precious metal soaring.

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Commodities, Stock Markets and International Trade

By A.I.

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Trade: President Trump signed an executive order late yesterday unleashing a wave of new tariffs on 69 US trading partners that will go into effect on August 7th. Here’s a handy list of tariffs and their economic effects for anyone else having trouble keeping track of all these new numbers.

Markets: Stocks opened lower and kept falling thanks to a double whammy of new tariff rates and a shocking slowdown in the labor market, while bond yields tumbled.

Commodities: Gold jumped as the likelihood of a rate cut rose due to the latest jobs report, while oil sank on reports that OPEC+ may announce a crude production boost as soon as this weekend.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks, Commodities and Trade as Stock Markets End Mixed

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  • Stocks: Investors cheered the news of an EU & US trade deal over the weekend, pushing the S&P 500 above 6,400 for the first time ever. But the index gave up most of its gains late in the day as attention turned to a huge week of data ahead (more on that in a minute).
  • Trade: Today was the first day of discussions between US and Chinese negotiators in Stockholm to keep the trade war truce alive. Elsewhere, President Trump foresees a baseline 15% to 20% tariff rate for the rest of the world.
  • Commodities: Gold fell as trade deal hopes heightened investors’ risk appetite, while oil spiked higher after Trump gave Russia a 10- to 12-day deadline to sign a truce with Ukraine.

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According to Bloomberg, 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have outpaced Wall Street’s estimates, putting the index on pace for its best season of beats since the second quarter of 2021.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Stocks, the FOMC and Trade Deals

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By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The multi-day rally wavered this afternoon as investors turned their attention to big tech earnings tomorrow. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, while the NASDAQ finally broke its hot streak.
  • FOMC: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees no reason for Jerome Powell to step down, while President Trump tempered his outrage against the Fed chair. Instead, well-known economist Mohamed El-Erian took up the gauntlet.
  • Trade: Bessent said China may get an extension to make a true trade deal, while promising a “rash of trade deals” in the coming days. Speaking of, Trump declared the US has made a deal with the Philippines capping import levies at 19%.

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