CONSUMERS: Worried about the Economy

By Staff Reporters

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Consumer sentiment is a statistical measurement of the overall health of the economy as determined by consumer opinion. It takes into account how people feel about their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short-term, and the prospects for longer-term economic growth. It is widely considered to be a useful economic indicator.

Consumer sentiment emerged as an economic statistic during the mid-20th century and has since become a barometer that influences public and economic policy. It is considered a lagging indicator because it takes people several months to notice and feel the effects of changes in economic activity.

American consumers are Worried about the Economy

Consumer sentiment dropped 8% from March to April amid worries about inflation, according to the University of Michigan’s closely watched survey. Though sentiment edged up slightly from an even lower reading earlier in the month, inflation expectations climbed to their highest since 1991 as consumers fret about the potential impact of tariffs.

And even beyond possible rising prices, things could be about to get rougher for consumers: Major retailers have warned that unless President Trump’s tariff policy toward China changes, they’re likely to encounter empty store shelves in a few weeks.

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DAILY UPDATE: Physician Burnout

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Healthcare comes with its share of mental challenges, especially considering that clinicians often care for patients when they’re in difficult and sometimes tragic situations. New research shows that even the path to getting into the workforce can be a challenge, with some physicians burning out before they make it to graduation.

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  • The national debt is growing to an unwieldy size ($35.5 trillion) and now we’re beginning to feel its effects: The interest payment on the US debt topped $1 trillion for the first time ever.
  • Consumer sentiment hit a five-month high as Americans look ahead to lower inflation and interest rates, but sentiment remains well below its 2021 peak.
  • The yield curve un-inverted, but there’s always another recession indicator out there warning of a downturn ahead.
  • The cryptocurrency Wild West is still alive and well: Americans lost $5.6 billion in crypto scams last year, according to the FBI.
  • Credit card debt hit 10.9%, its highest level in 12 years, according to Deloitte.

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Most doctors report feeling overworked and are considering a change in career, according to a new poll.

Doximity, a virtual network for physicians, found that 81% doctors surveyed last fall said they felt overworked—a slight decline from 86% who reported burnout in 2022 but still up from 73% in 2021. Meanwhile, about three in five doctors said they were considering early retirement (30%), looking for another employer (15%), or leaving the profession altogether (14%), the poll found.

The findings, released last year, come amid reports of rising rates of physician burnout and dissatisfaction since after the Covid-19 pandemic.

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DAILY UPDATE: Friday Before Memorial Day Weekend and the Stock Market Collapse

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The Friday before Memorial Day is never action packed, and this year is no exception as earnings season begins to wrap up and economic readings slow down. Two reports to watch for tomorrow: April Durable Goods Orders and University of Michigan’s May sentiment report.

Durable Goods Orders are big-ticket items with a shelf life of three or more years—think appliances and furniture for consumers, or machinery, equipment, and vehicles for businesses. More durable goods orders indicate a healthy economy, as consumers and companies alike wouldn’t spend as much if they weren’t confident they could afford it, and also provides insight into how strong the manufacturing industry is.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is a survey of consumers via telephone to better understand how they feel about the economy, what they’re spending their money on, etc. The preliminary findings earlier this month weren’t great thanks to sticky inflation, and tomorrow’s finalized readings won’t change much. But with the latest CPI reading indicating inflation might yet be tamed, next month’s report could be much more illuminating.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 39.17 points (0.7%) to 5,267.84; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 605.78 points (1.5%) to 39,065.26; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) shed 65.51 points (0.4%) to 16,736.03.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield rose more than 4 basis points to 4.479%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.48 to 12.77.

Financial shares were among Thursday’s weakest performers amid ideas a “higher-for-longer” Fed rate outlook could pressure bank margins. The KBW Regional Bank Index (KRX) dropped almost 3% to a three-week low. Other interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate and utilities, took pressure.

In other markets, WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures fell for the fourth straight trading day and closed at a three-month low under $76 per barrel.

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Spot Ethereum ETFs were approved by the SEC in another big win for crypto, following the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

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