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CBO Director Elmendorf on Debt and Taxes

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A CBO Political Review

By Children’s Home Society of Florida Foundation

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is responsible for providing Congress with financial estimates for future budget and tax policies. CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf testified before the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives on June 6.

Elmendorf started by noting that the public federal debt for the past 40 years has averaged 38% of the economy. At the end of 2008, the public debt was 40% of gross domestic product (GDP). By the end of 2012, the public debt will be 70% of GDP.

Elmendorf pointed out that there are two major trends that will substantially impact the federal budget. First, there are 78 million baby boomers that will be retiring and receiving benefits from Social Security and Medicare. Second, the cost of healthcare for the past decade has been increasing more rapidly than the general inflation rate. He suggests that this increasing cost for healthcare is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

Elmendorf then offered two scenarios for the future. He called these the “baseline scenario” and the “alternative scenario.”

Baseline Scenario

The baseline scenario assumes that the current law will be applicable. On January 1, 2013, the existing tax cuts will expire. In addition to higher tax rates, many individuals will be subject to alternative minimum tax. Finally, the 3.8% tax under the Affordable Care Act will apply starting in 2013.

With the substantial tax increases under the baseline scenario, federal tax revenue increases to 24% of the economy by the year 2037. Elmendorf noted that this would be the highest level of taxation since World War II. Under this scenario, the increasing tax revenue permits debt to be reduced from the current 70% to 53% of GDP by 2037.

The alternative scenario assumes that Congress will follow the pattern of the past four years. The tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 will be extended. The alternative minimum tax exemptions will be indexed. The $5.12 million applicable exclusion amount for gift and estate taxes will continue (with indexed increases in future years). Medicare payment rates for physicians will continue to increase. This last provision has been called the “Doc Fix” in Washington. Finally, federal budgets will continue with the same general provisions that exist today.

Under the alternative scenario, the increasing deficits lead to public debt of 90% of GDP by 2022. With the rising expenditures for the baby boom generation, the public debt increases to 200% of GDP by 2037.

Elmendorf Opines

Elmendorf noted that many economists believe that this large debt may lead to creation of fewer new jobs. He suggested that it will be necessary to increase revenue and decrease spending substantially from projected levels to avoid a large increase in the national debt. He did not specify how this should be accomplished.

Assessment

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke also testified before Congress this week. He pointed out that January 1 is a “fiscal cliff” that could have great impact on the nation. Bernanke believes that the scheduled increase in taxes and reduction in spending should be spaced out over time to avoid a dramatic impact in January. However, he also declined to offer any advice on specific ways to increase taxes or cut spending.

Editor’s Note: These discussions in Congress are preparations for the legislative session that will occur following the November election. Congress is debating the combination of tax increases and budget cuts to pass this year. In addition, preparations are being made for a major tax reform act in 2013.

Conclusion

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CBO Director Elmendorf Discusses Budget Deficits

Considering the Fiscal Commission Recommendations

By Children’s Home Society of Florida Foundation

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Last week, on February 10th, the House Budget Committee held a hearing and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Douglas Elmendorf discussed the federal budget deficit. Director Elmendorf emphasized the importance of addressing the deficit and also noted that the Fiscal Commission recommendations are a useful addition to the current discussion.

Of Paul Ryan

Chairman Paul Ryan noted that there still is a major problem with unemployment. According to Chairman Ryan, the recession ended in June of 2009 and between that time and December of 2010, “payroll employment rose by a mere 6/100 of 1% (0.06%).” Chairman Ryan noted that it is essential to restore growth in America. He advocated “low taxes, reasonable regulations sound money and spending restraint.”

Of Chris Van Hollen

Ranking Member Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) also responded to Director Elmendorf. He indicated a willingness to address the deficit. Rep. Van Hollen suggested that “Democrats and Republicans must work together now to put our nation on a fiscally sustainable path and we stand ready to do that.”

Assessment

However, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) expressed concern that Chairman Ryan was focusing excessively on spending rather than on tax deductions. Rep. Doggett noted, “Dollar for dollar, cutting funding for cancer research or local law enforcement has the same effect on the deficit as closing a tax loophole that allows a Wall Street corporation to benefit by stashing their tax dollars offshore.” Rep. Doggett suggests that tax deductions will need to be reduced in order to address the deficit challenge.

Conclusion

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US Budget Deficits Require Both Spending Cuts and Tax Increases

The CRFB Speaks

By Children’s Home Society of Florida Foundation

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The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has published a release on October 20 that discusses some of the options to tackle the federal deficit. According to a Bloomberg News poll, there are two major issues that are foremost in the minds of voters as they go to the polls on November 2nd. The first is jobs and the US economy. The second issue focuses on federal finances and the budget deficit.

CFRB Suggestions

The CFRB suggests that there are four potential options for reducing expenditures and one for increasing revenue.

1. Fraud, Waste and Abuse – A favorite comment of all political candidates is that he or she will reduce fraud, waste and abuse. While there may be some savings, this historically has been a fairly modest part of actual deficit reduction.

2. Strengthen Social Security – Congress will need to address methods for strengthening Social Security. The Social Security program used to run a substantial surplus each year. However, in 2010 the federal deficit will total approximately $40 billion. That is, the amounts received by Social Security will be $40 billion lower than the amounts distributed for benefits.

Social Security

By 2020, Social Security could be running a $100 billion deficit. Social Security Trustees have stated, “The projected trust fund shortfalls should be addressed in a timely way so that necessary changes can be phased in gradually and workers can be given time to plan for them.”

3. Healthcare – The Congressional Budget Office notes that the current healthcare programs could require nearly one-half of the federal budget by 2030 or 2040. Therefore, there will need to be further changes in healthcare in order to make the program fiscally sustainable.

4. Defense – Defense expenditures in 2010 were 4.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This amounted to $692 billion. Defense Secretary Gates has acknowledged that there may be opportunities to eliminate some weapons systems and reduce expenditures.

5. Increased Taxes – The CFRB release states, “It is very difficult to lay out a credible deficit plan that would not increase taxes. It is also very difficult to develop a comprehensive plan that would not raise taxes on families making less than $250,000 per year.” The potential for increased taxes has focused on income taxes, capital gains taxes, estate taxes and a consumption tax such as a gas tax or a value added tax.

Assessment

The Fiscal Commission appointed by President Obama is expected to issue a report in December that discusses these issues.

Editor’s Note: Your editor and this organization take no position with respect to the many financial and tax options that are available to Congress. This information is offered as a public service to our readers.

Conclusion

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On the Proposed Tax Cuts

Senate Debate on Extending 2001/2003 Tax Cuts

By Children’s Home Society of Florida Foundation

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The Senate Finance Committee conducted a hearing on July 14, 2010 to discuss the potential extension of tax cuts. In the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA), there were tax reductions for nearly all Americans. The tax reductions continue through 2010, but are set to be repealed on January 1, 2011.

Proposals

The White House has proposed to extend these tax cuts for single persons with incomes under $200,000 ($250,000 for couples), but to increase the capital gain rate and top income tax brackets. Under the White House plan, the capital gain rate will increase from 15% to 20%, the 33% bracket increases to 36% and the 35% tax bracket is raised to 39.6%.

[picapp align=”none” wrap=”false” link=”term=income+tax&iid=238905″ src=”http://view1.picapp.com/pictures.photo/image/238905/thinkstock-single-image/thinkstock-single-image.jpg?size=500&imageId=238905″ width=”337″ height=”506″ /]

The Senate

Senate Finance Chair Max Baucus (D-MT) opened the hearing by stating, “Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and we need to do all we can to put more money back in the hands of workers, middle-class families and small businesses so our economy can grow. I support extending the middle-class tax cuts permanently, as soon as possible, so working families can keep more of their hard-earned money.”

Sen. Baucus and the White House are both advocating a permanent extension of the tax cuts for low and middle-income taxpayers, with an increase in taxes for those in the upper brackets.

Ranking Member on the Senate Finance Committee Charles Grassley (R-IA) has repeatedly expressed concern about the increase of taxes on small business owners. He noted, “To those who are pushing the higher marginal rates, I say the burden is on you to show that you are not harming our primary job creators.” Sen. Grassley has noted that two-thirds of new jobs in the past decade have been created by the small business owners who will be subject to the higher taxes.

Editor’s Note: The hearings on taxes are the first step in creation of a tax bill. Because the failure to act this year would result in repeal of all of the tax cuts, it is probable that there will be a tax bill prior to the end of 2010. However, with the shortened legislative calendar due to the fall elections, the tax bill is quite likely to be deferred until after the election.

Conclusion

Douglas Holtz-Eakin is President of the American Action Forum and was formerly the Congressional Budget Office Director. He testified that approximately one-half of the $1 trillion in business income that will be reported in 2011 will be subject to the higher 36% and 39.6% tax brackets. In his opinion these higher rates will reduce the willingness of small businesses to hire new employees.

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Healthcare Projections and the US Budget 2007-09

Issues and Challenges for Obama Administration Reform

By Staff ReportersUS Capitol

Read the complete testimony and statement of Peter R. Orzag, OMB Director, to the US Senate, dated June 21, 2007.

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Link: 06-21-healthcarereform

Assessment

Now, almost two years later, and with the new Obama Administration, has your opinion changed on the potential of healthcare reform; why or why not?

Conclusion

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Defining Comparative Medical Effectiveness

An Emerging Health Economics Issue

By Staff Reportersdhimc-book8

Comparative Medical Effectiveness [CME] is not a new healthcare term or health economics concept. Federal initiatives specifically promoting CME were authorized under the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003, but the genesis took root decades before.

Finally … a Hot Topic

Comparative Medical Effectiveness has recently become a hot topic again throughout the arena of health care stakeholders, due to funding and initiatives advanced by the Obama administration, and the positive and negative reactions drawn by different sectors of stakeholders.

Related to Evidence Based Outcomes

For stakeholders including numerous health care policy organizations, the health plan industry, and various health care provider organizations: public and private promotion of Comparative Medical Effectiveness reviews and processes offer the potential for more evidence-based, outcome-benefit or even cost-benefit driven information to improve the health care decision making for all parties. And, for stakeholders concerned about limiting the role of government and third parties in their level of regulation and control over the direct delivery of specific patient care, Comparative Medical Effectiveness may become a lightening rod due to perceived potential as to how the process and information could ultimately be applied.

Definition of the CBO Report

The Congressional Budget Office Report “Comparative Effectiveness: Issues and Options for an Expanded Federal Role” offers the definition that follows:

“As applied in the health care sector, an analysis of comparative medical effectiveness is simply a rigorous evaluation of the impact of different options that are available for treating a given medical condition for a particular set of patients. Such a study may compare similar treatments, such as competing drugs, or it may analyze very different approaches, such as surgery and drug therapy. The analysis may focus only on the relative medical benefits and risks of each option, or it may also weigh both the costs and the benefits of those options. In some cases, a given treatment may prove to be more effective clinically or more cost-effective for a broad range of patients, but frequently a key issue is determining which specific types of patients would benefit most from it. Related terms include cost–benefit analysis, technology assessment, and evidence-based medicine, although the latter concepts do not ordinarily take costs into account.”

Assessment

For related financial, economics, managed-care, insurance, health information technology and security, and health administrative terms and definitions of modernity, visit: http://www.springerpub.com/Search/marcinko

Conclusion

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