JAMIE DIMON: Speaks on the Economy and Artificial Intelligence

Posted on April 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Jamie Dimon is bearish on a soft landing but bullish on AI

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just said that the odds interest rates return to the Fed’s target of 2% without triggering a recession are “a lot lower” than the 70%–80% chance that several markets seem to have priced in.

Dimon said JPMorgan is preparing for interest rates to possibly spike to 8% in the coming years, citing geopolitical risks, the green transition, and higher energy costs (but he’s notorious for having cautious outlooks). Artificial intelligence also topped Dimon’s list of pressing issues, and he’s “completely convinced” that AI’s impact will be “extraordinary”—maybe even as revolutionary as the printing press or the steam engine.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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U.S. ECONOMY: Perhaps a “Soft Landing” After All?

Posted on December 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

YET- HEALTH CARE IS GROWING!

By Staff Reporters

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The US economy is looking like it could avoid a downturn and achieve a soft landing after all. US employers added a more-than-expected 199,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said recently. The solid result calmed many analysts’ fears that a steeper economic slowdown is imminent due to the Federal Reserve’s earlier interest rate hikes. And, it brings us closer to the coveted “soft landing” scenario, in which the Fed tames inflation on the economy. For example:

  • The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down for the first time since July, to 3.7%.
  • Average hourly pay increased by 0.4% and is now up 4% for the year, beating the projected pace of annual price growth.
  • But the job market isn’t quite what it used to be

Last month’s 199-k jobs created were below the average of 240,000 added in the preceding 12 months. Plus, November hiring was confined to just a handful of industries:

  • Healthcare and the government were responsible for two-thirds of the headcount growth, adding 77,000 and 49,000 jobs, respectively.
  • The manufacturing sector gained 28,000 workers—but that was largely due to folks returning to work after striking against the Big Three automakers.
  • CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Finally, in another sign that employers might be pulling back from on-boarding new people, the Labor Department reported earlier this week that job openings in late October were at their lowest since March 2021.

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DAILY UPDATE: IRS Ups Interest Rate Penalty with Economic Soft Landing?

Posted on December 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is raising the stakes for those who underpay their taxes by ratcheting up the interest penalty that will be assessed in next spring’s tax filing season. Earlier this fall, the IRS increased its interest penalty on estimated tax underpayments to 8% – a notable jump from 3% just two years ago. The IRS indicated that the interest rate penalty is determined every quarter and that for taxpayers other than corporations the assessed rate is the federal short-term rate plus three percentage points.

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Speaking of a possible US economic “soft-landing“, the S&P 500 closed at a 2023 high on Friday, the VIX (Wall Street’s “fear gauge”) has fallen to a nearly four-year low, and December has been the third-best month for the S&P since 1928. Even crypto is on a roll as bitcoin topped $40,000 for the first time since May 2022.

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Is the ARK Sinking?

Posted on July 17, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: Stocks are rolling following a week that showed our inflation emergency seems to be ending, and big banks are still raking in big profits. The Fed’s so-called “soft landing” scenario—getting inflation down without tipping the economy into a recession—is a distinct possibility, as long as corporate finances don’t end up being shockingly bad this earnings season.
  • Global economy: While the US economy is chugging along, the same can’t be said for China. Growth in the world’s No. 2 economy hardly budged between the first and second quarters, while youth unemployment hit a record last month. Expect President Xi Jinping to make moves to juice China’s stagnating GDP.

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Curiously, Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund has rallied more than 50% this year. Investors are using that as an opportunity to get out. 

They have pulled a net $717 million from the ARK Innovation ETF over the past 12 months, according to FactSet. That exodus marks a notable shift for a fund that had consistently drawn investor cash since its 2014 inception. Once the largest actively managed ETF with nearly $30 billion in assets under management, the fund has shrunk to roughly $9 billion, mostly due to investment losses. 

Known by its ticker symbol ARKK, Wood’s fund became an investor darling shortly after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic with hugely successful bets on unprofitable and “disruptive” technology companies. It took in huge amounts of investor money, culminating with a $6.5 billion inflow in the first quarter of 2021, when its share price peaked.

Then, the Federal Reserve’s fastest interest-rate hiking campaign in decades crushed the valuations of unprofitable growth companies, which often attract investors when interest rates are low and returns on safer investments such as CDs are minimal. Shares of ARKK plunged 67% in 2022, but its investors largely held on or bought the dip.

Now, analysts say they expect some of those investors are getting out for good?  

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/07/12/from-active-to-passive-investing/

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