TESLA: My Current Thoughts

Posted on April 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Tesla market value of $780 billion mostly reflects Elon’s future dreams, not car sales. The reality? Only $100-180 billion tied to the actual vehicle business.

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Current thoughts on Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla has a market capitalization as of this writing of $780 billion. It made around $14 billion of profit in 2023 and $7 billion in 2024. A good chunk of profit comes not from selling cars but from regulatory credits. It sold fewer cars in 2024 than in 2023. Unless we see a significant shift change in battery capacity, speed of charging, and improved quality and availability of charging infrastructure, we have reached peak EV penetration (I wrote about this earlier).

However, today Tesla is not trading based on car sales but on future dreams of self-driving robo-taxis, robots, semis, and whatever else Elon dreams up. The car company may be worth $100–180 billion; the rest is what investors are willing to pay for Elon’s dreams.

Quick thoughts on each dream:

Self-driving: I would not trust my life or my kids’ lives to a car company that only uses cameras. They are passive sensors that have limited range and are easily impacted by bad weather. I’ve used Tesla self-driving software – it is great most of the time, except when it’s not – and then it might kill you or others.

Robo-taxis: They may work in geo-fenced areas, but they pose a huge reputational risk to Tesla. One death and this business is done. That’s what happened to Uber’s self-driving business, and why Google’s Waymo has taken a much more conservative route. It uses radar/lidar and launched the service in geo-fenced areas first.

Semis: They were announced in 2017 and were going to hit the road the next year. They are still not out there. I suspect Elon is waiting for a breakthrough in battery technology.

Robots: Exciting, huge market, but this will be a crowded field.

New competition: There are lots of Chinese EVs invading Europe and the rest of the world. BYD looks like a real competitor.

China looked like a great opportunity for Tesla, but may turn into a liability if the trade war intensifies.

Finally, though at times he seems superhuman, Musk is constrained by the number of hours in the day. As of today he is running Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter (x.com), xAI (the maker of Grok – a ChatGPT competitor), The Boring Company, Neuralink, and oh, yes, DOGE. The EV market is getting more, not less, competitive.

Tesla needs an un-distracted Elon Musk.

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DAILY UPDATE: Hims & Hers, MSFT-AI, Neuralink, FDIC and New Market Highs

Posted on May 22, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Microsoft unveiled new PCs with AI-powered features.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Hims & Hers stock soared as much as 38% on the news that it’ll provide GLP-1 injections with the same active ingredient as Ozempic or Wegovy for just $199/month—an 85% discount compared to Wegovy’s ~$1,350 monthly price tag (without insurance).

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FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will resign after an investigation found widespread sexual harassment at the agency. But he won’t step down until a successor is named.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

The FDA granted Elon Musk’s neurotech company Neuralink, approval to place its brain chip into a second human test subject using a new method designed to correct issues that arose after its inaugural insertion in January, per the Wall Street Journal.

And, Optum Rx is shaking up its pharmacy model. The business says it will make drug costs more predictable and transparent for clients.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

  • All three indexes ended the day higher after Fed Governor Christopher Waller stopped by CNBC and mentioned he doesn’t think raising interest rates is in the cards, even if the Fed is waiting for more data before making cuts. The NASDAQ continued to hit new all-time highs today as investors place their bets before Nvidia’s earnings announcement tomorrow afternoon, and the S&P 500 hit yet another record.
  • Copper continued to rise as the market comes to terms with the metal’s importance, while oil fell on the news that the Biden administration will release 1 million barrels of gasoline this summer from the Northeast reserve. Meanwhile, ethereum continued to climb on the news that a new ETF may be joining the fray.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index rose 13.28 points (0.3%) to 5,321.41; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 66.22 points (0.2%) to 39,872.99; the NASDAQ Composite advanced 37.75 points (0.2%) to 16,832.62.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) lost more than 2 basis points to 4.414%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.29 to 11.86.

Banking and consumer staples were among the market’s strongest performers Tuesday, while utility shares extended a sharp upswing over the past month. The Dow Jones Utility Average® ($DJU) added 0.5% and closed at a 12-month high. Transportation companies were among the weakest performers.

In other markets, Gold (/GC) futures slipped from Monday’s record high above $2,454 per ounce, while Silver (/SI) futures ended near a 12-year high around $32.21. Gold futures are still up 17% this year due to several factors, including reports of China’s central bank buying actual gold as well as escalating conflict in the Middle East. Gold is viewed by some as a safe-haven asset during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.

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“23andMe” Hacked & “Neuralink” Device Defective?

Posted on December 16, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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In a significant breach of privacy, hackers gained access to the DNA relatives data of 6.9 million users on 23andMe, posing serious questions about the security measures in place for our most personal data.

Meanwhile, Neuralink, the brain-computer interface company, faced disturbing reports about its clinical trials. Allegedly, up to a dozen monkeys suffered severe adverse effects, including brain swelling and partial paralysis, after being implanted with the Neuralink device.

Neuralink Corp. is an American company that is developing brain computer interfaces (BCIs) as of 2022. Founded by Elon Musk and a team of seven scientists and engineers, Neuralink was launched in 2016 and was first publicly reported in March 2017.

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NEUROLINK: Brain Chips Rejected by the FDA?

Posted on March 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The FDA has reportedly rejected an application from Neuralink.

Recall, Neuralink is Elon Musk’s medical device company to test its brain implants in humans.

LINK: https://neuralink.com/

Neuralink Corporation is an American neurotechnology company that develops implantable brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) based in Fremont, California. Founded by Elon Musk and a founding team of seven scientists and engineers, Neuralink was launched in 2016 and was first publicly reported in March 2017.

Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million was from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” device capable of implanting very thin (4 to 6 μm in width) threads into the brain, and demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat via 1,500 electrodes. They had anticipated starting experiments with humans in 2020, but have since moved that projection to 2023.

Several neuroscientists and publications, including the MIT Technology Review, have been critical of claims made by Musk about Neuralink, calling some of the technological promises “highly speculative”. In March 2023, Reuters reported that the Food and Drug Administration rejected a 2022 application for human trials.

The agency had several concerns, including the risk of tiny wires in the chip shifting to other areas of the brain.

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