US STOCKS: Market Update

By Staff Reporters

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US Markets

After one of the most volatile weeks in Wall Street history, the S&P 500 closed 5.7% higher for its best week since 2023. But investors are taking little comfort with the rebound in stocks.

A declining dollar fell to a three-year low against the euro on Friday and spiking bond yields have some observers warning of a monumental, structural shift away from the US as a safe haven due to the recent tariff turmoil.

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MAASTRICHT Treaty

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The Maastricht Treaty, signed February 7th, 1992, in Maastricht, the Netherlands, created the European Union (EU) and led to the creation of the euro(€); the single currency adopted by most EU member states.

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UPDATE: Dollar-Euro Parity, Crude Oil and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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The Euro lost 10% versus the dollar this year and at $1.0238 EUR=EBS is close to the psychologically crucial parity point it last saw in mid-2002. It also hit new seven-year lows versus the Swiss franc and dropped against the sterling and the yen, but few observers are willing to call a bottom yet. Nomura’s analysts cut their euro/dollar target to $0.95 and said parity could be breached as soon as August. Citibank says a move to parity is “inevitable.” However, Nomura said that $0.95 was not that important historically, noting that the euro fell from $1.17 after its creation to $0.82 in October 2002. Extrapolating backwards using its legacy currencies, the euro traded as weak as $0.6444 in February 1985.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, benchmark U.S. crude oil for August delivery fell $8.93 to $99.50 a barrel, its first dip below $100 since May 11th. Brent crude for September delivery fell $10.73 to $102.70 a barrel.

Finally, the Dow dropped 129.44 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 30,967.82; it had been down more than 700 points at its lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 6.06 points, or 0.2%, closing at 3,831.39. And, the NASDAQ Composite advanced 194.39 points, or 1.8%, to finish at 11,322.24.

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UPDATE: Vitalik Buterin, Recession Risk the Euro and BOA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Crypto has crashed in recent weeks amid a broad sell-off in traditional markets. Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Buterin, who cofounded the blockchain network in 2014, has seen its Ether token crash by 59% since hitting a high of around $4,800 in November 2021, when his holding was valued at around $1.5 billion.
  • Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around recession (median of 24%). With the S&P 500 currently showing a peak-to-trough decline of almost 19%, the market is effectively already pricing in a 60%-75% chance of recession based on the average and median.
  • Thanks to a surging US dollar and a faltering Euro, many analysts expect that the two currencies could reach parity this year—meaning one dollar would fetch you one euro. The two currencies haven’t reached a 1:1 exchange rate since 2002, three years after the euro was introduced in an effort to bring stability to Europe. The euro closed at $1.057 against the dollar, just 5% above equal value with the US currency.
  • Finally, the current market plunge hasn’t yet scared investors like downturns in years past. Bank of America’s private clients are still dedicating 63% of their portfolios to stocks, compared to 39% after the 2008 financial crisis.

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On the Financial Rain in Spain for Physician Investors

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Understanding European Woes and the Global Financial Crisis

By Daniel Minihan

Spain has been the focus of the latest woes in Europe over the past few weeks. And, the key issue surrounding their banks is over lending into a property market that has fallen sharply. So, I thought the chart below best summed up their predicament.

GFC Confidence

In the lead up to the GFC, Spanish confidence was riding high and was directly correlated to retail spending, which is not dissimilar to where the USA was (and currently is).

But, after the property market tanked, so did confidence and with it went the desire to spend. With unemployment in Spain approaching 25% of the workforce, household spending is dropping which perpetuates a cycle of higher unemployment which in turn puts more pressure on the property market and the banks that lent into it

Assessment

The Spanish bank rally fizzled yesterday.

Link: http://money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=ee6e272d-7247-4e14-b33a-d8e82d337ffa

Not sure where this one will end. How about you?

Conclusion

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Euro Currency in the Cross Hairs? [Video]

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How We Got There –  A Review for Physician Investors

By Jonathan Reyes

It’s been two decades since the dream of a unified Europe inched toward a reality. But, as crises have taken hold and bail-outs have become commonplace, how has the continent’s shared currency weathered the storms?

Video Link: http://www.infographicsarchive.com/economics/video-infographic-the-euro-in-the-crosshairs-how-we-got-here

Source: Video infographic made for Bloomberg TV.

Assessment

Important information for all medical professsionals and retail physician investors interested in emerging markets or international investing.

Conclusion

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