HINDSIGHT BIAS: The “Curse of Knowledge”

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Curse of Knowledge and Hindsight Bias

Similar in ways to the availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and to some extent, the false consensus effect, once you (truly) understand a new piece of information, that piece of information is now available to you and often becomes seemingly obvious. It might be easy to forget that there was ever a time you didn’t know this information and so, you assume that others, like yourself, also know this information: the curse of knowledge.

Cite: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/11/18/what-is-the-dunning-kruger-effect/

However, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, it is often an unfair assumption that others share the same knowledge. The hindsight bias is similar to the curse of knowledge in that once we have information about an event, it then seems obvious that it was going to happen all along.

I should have seen it [divorce, stock market crash/soar my smoking & lung cancer, unemployment, etc] coming!

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STOCK MARKETS: Roaring and Soaring!

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING FINANCIAL NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks just roared out of the gate this Wednesday morning following news that former President Donald Trump has secured a second term in the White House and Republicans won a majority in the Senate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,341 points, or about 3.1 percent, as the market opened, reaching a record high. It was the first time it has jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day since November 2022.

The S&P 500 also gained 1.9 percent, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.8 percent.

Despite concern from big business about Trump’s plan to impose blanket tariffs on imports to the U.S., Wall Street is anticipating tax cuts and deregulation during a second Trump presidency.

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INVESTING RISKS: Retained Earnings, Weighted Assets and Sequence of Return

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By

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Retained Earnings Risk: Profits generated by a company that are not distributed to stockholders as dividends. Instead, they are either reinvested in the business or kept as a reserve for specific objectives, such as paying off debt or purchasing equipment. Retained earnings risks are also called “undistributed profits,” “undistributed earnings,” or “earned surplus.”

Risk-Weighted (or risk-adjusted) Assets: Within the context of measuring the financial stability of banks and other financial institutions, the risk-weighted assets figure is an aggregate of a financial institution’s assets (usually loans to its customers) after the loans have been individually adjusted for their risk. This involves multiplying each loan by a factor that reflects its risk. Low-risk loans are multiplied by a low number, high-risk by high. The aggregate number can then be used to calculate the financial institution’s capital ratio. Lower risk-weighted assets typically result in higher capital ratios, and higher risk-weighted assets usually translate to lower capital ratios.

Sequence-of-Returns Risk: The risk of market conditions impacting the overall returns of an investment portfolio during the period when a retiree is first starting to withdrawal money from investments as income. For example, if a retiree has to withdrawal income from his or her portfolio when market prices are depressed, the portfolio may lose out on the potential returns that income could have made once market prices recovered.

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DONALD TRUMP: Wins US Presidency 2024

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS!

47th President of the United States of America

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HEALTHCARE: Where the Presidential Candidates Stand

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Health Capital Consultants, LLC

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Where the Candidates Stand on Healthcare

With the Presidential Election just weeks away, healthcare has once again come front and center of national political discourse, as voters rank healthcare as an important issue, and Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tout their respective healthcare agendas.

While details related to future healthcare proposals have been light, both candidates do have political track records that can be examined for clues as to their priorities should they become president.

This Health Capital Topics article explores where the candidates stand on various issues related to healthcare. (Read more…)

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DAILY UPDATE: Home Buyers and Jeff Bezos as Stock Markets Soar!

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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First-time homebuyers in 2024 had a median income of $97,000, and their median age was 38. ​​OpenAI and Jeff Bezos invested in Physical Intelligence, a robot startup with the aim of “bringing general-purpose AI into the physical world.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stocks Up

  • Cybersecurity darling Palantir soared 23.38% to a record high thanks to strong earnings, high AI demand, and big spending from the Department of Defense.
  • Astera Labs skyrocketed 37.70% after the semiconductor parts maker (and one of Nvidia’s key suppliers) announced strong earnings.
  • Crypto stocks had a great day thanks to a widespread cryptocurrency rally. Coinbase rose 4.13%, MicroStrategy gained 2.16%, and Riot Platforms jumped 8.13%.

Stocks Down

Trump Media & Technology Group arrested its recent downturn and popped 12% at one point today, but gave all those gains up and ended the day down 1.16%.

  • You’d think the end of a multi-week labor dispute costing billions of dollars would be a relief for shareholders, but Boeing still sank 2.62% on news that it’s reached an agreement with striking machinists.
  • It’s a me, lower revenue forecasts! Nintendo fell 1.68% after announcing that sales of its Switch console are starting to sag.
  • Wynn Resorts sagged 9.34% thanks to misses on both top and bottom line expectations last quarter.
  • Some of the smaller semiconductor stocks on the market took a beating today. NXP Semiconductor dropped 5.17% after announcing weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, Lattice Semiconductor tumbled 1.37% after missing on sales forecasts and announcing job cuts, and while Cirrus Logic beat expectations this quarter, it still fell 7.09% on lower forecasts.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 70.07 points (1.23%) to 5,782.76; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 427.28 points (1.02%) to 42,221.88; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) increased 259.19 points (1.43%) to 18,439.17.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped two basis points to 4.29%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 20.72.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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