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Historical Review
By Staff Reporters
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Now that the voting is behind us, it might be safe to start checking your portfolio. In recent history, stocks have only gone up after midterm elections:
- In the year following every midterm election since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen—no matter which party won.
- A divided government, which could happen if the GOP retakes at least the House, delivers the best market results: Data going back to 1932 shows average annual S&P returns of 13% when there’s a GOP-controlled Congress under a Democratic president, compared to 10% when Democrats have both, per RBC Capital Markets.
Why?
There’s some debate, but partisan gridlock can be advantageous for business because it minimizes the chance of major changes to taxes or other laws that impact companies. It also doesn’t hurt to have the uncertainty of the election in the rear-view mirror.
Right now however, investors are more focused on the FOMCs’ rate hikes in response to inflation. While politicians from both sides of the aisle have criticized Jerome Powell’s recent decisions, he’s unlikely to change course due to the election outcome. Plus, economists seem pretty convinced the US is headed toward a recession, regardless of who’s in control in Washington.
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Filed under: Breaking News, Financial Planning, Health Law & Policy, LifeStyle, Voting Polls | Tagged: elections, ELECTIONS: Money and Markets, markets, money, stock markets |
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