DAILY UPDATE: “Black” Friday?

By Staff Reporters

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Black Friday is a colloquial term for the Friday after Thanksgiving in the United States, that is the Friday after 22 November. It traditionally marks the start of the Christmas shopping season in the United States. Many stores offer highly promoted sales at discounted prices and often open early, sometimes as early as midnight or even on Thanksgiving. Some stores’ sales continue to Monday (“Cyber Monday“) or for a week (“Cyber Week“).

Occurring on the fourth Friday in November unless November 1 is a Friday (in which case it’s the fifth Friday), Black Friday has routinely been the busiest shopping day of the year in the United States since 2005.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/11/25/black-friday-and-the-economy/

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MORE: Tax Loss Harvesting

Tax Loss Harvesting

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

DEFINITION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/11/06/tax-loss-harvesting-what-it-is/

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Tax Lost Harvesting with Examples

I enjoy writing about taxes as much as I enjoy going to the dentist. But I feel what I am about to say is important. We – including yours truly – have been mindlessly conditioned to do tax selling at the end of every year to reduce our tax bills. On the surface it makes sense. There are realized gains – why don’t we create some tax losses to offset them?

Here is the problem. With a few exceptions, which I’ll address at the end, tax-loss selling makes no logical sense. Let me give you an example.

Let’s say there is a stock, XYZ. We bought it for $50; we think it is worth $100. Fourteen months later we got lucky and it declined to $25. Assuming our estimate of its fair value hasn’t changed, we get to buy $1 of XYZ now for 25 cents instead of 50 cents.

But as of this moment we also have a $25 paper loss. The tax-loss selling thinking goes like this: Sell it today, realize the $25 loss, and then buy it in 31 days. (This is tax law; if we buy it back sooner the tax loss will be disqualified.) This $25 loss offsets the gains we took for the year. Everybody but Uncle Sam is happy.

Since I am writing about this and I’ve mentioned above I’d rather be having a root canal, you already suspect that my retort to the above thinking is a great big NO!

In the first place, we are taking the risk that XYZ’s price may go up during our 31-day wait. We really have no idea and rarely have insights as to what stocks will do in the short term. Maybe we’ll get lucky again and the price will fall further. But we’re selling something that is down, so risk in the long run is tilted against us. Also, other investors are doing tax selling at the same time we are, which puts additional pressure on the stock.

Secondly – and this is the most important point – all we are doing is pushing our taxes from this year to future years. Let’s say that six months from now the stock goes up to $100. We sell it, and… now we originate a $75, not a $50, gain. Our cost basis was reduced by the sale and consequent purchase to $25 from $50. This is what tax loss selling is – shifting the tax burden from this year to next year. Unless you have an insight into what capital gains taxes are going to be in the future, all you are doing is shifting your current tax burden into the future.

Thirdly, in our first example we owned the stock for 14 months and thus took a long-term capital loss. We sold it, waited 31 days, and bought it back. Let’s say the market comes back to its senses and the price goes up to $100 three months after we buy it back. If we sell it now, that $75 gain is a short-term gain. Short-term gains are taxed at your ordinary income tax bracket, which for most clients is higher than their capital gain tax rate. You may argue that we should wait nine months till this gain goes from short-term to long-term. We can do that, but there are costs: First, we don’t know where the stock price will be in nine months. And second, there is an opportunity cost – we cannot sell a fully priced $1 to buy another $1 that is on fire sale.

Final point. Suppose we bought a stock, the price of which has declined in concert with a decrease of its fair value; in other words, the loss is not temporary but permanent.  In this case, yes, we should sell the stock and realize the loss. 

We are focused on the long-term compounding of your wealth. Thus our strategy has a relatively low portfolio turnover. However, we always keep tax considerations in mind when making investment decisions, and try to generate long-term gains (which are more tax efficient) than short term gains. 

We understand that each client has their unique tax circumstances. For instance, your income may decline in future years and thus your tax rate, too. Or higher capital gains may put you in a different income bracket and thus disqualify you from some government healthcare program.

We are here to serve you, and we’ll do as much or as little tax-loss selling as you instruct us to do. We just want you to be aware that with few exceptions tax-loss selling does more harm than good.

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ORDER: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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COMMENTS APPRECIATED

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2022 Black Friday and the Physician Micro-Economy

Is it Good for Retailers … but Bad for Doctors and Consumers!

If Black Friday 2022 is anything like 2021, retailers may not be swimming in cash while shoppers bathe in savings. Black Friday deals drew 212 million shoppers to stores in fabulous 2010 and collectively spent $39 billion on products and services.

And, the average amount spent by a Black Friday shopper in 2010 was a whopping $365.34.

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Assessment

We predict Black Friday 2022 sales surpass 2021 with a slight increase over 2020 because of fewer shopping days; and the pandemic explosion..

But, is Black Friday good for the [healthcare] economics sector post [thu] the pandemic? Do patients go shopping rather than to the doctor? What about inflation?

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