The Leading Business Education Network for Doctors, Financial Advisors and Health Industry Consultants

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

***

***

10 Leading Economic Indicators

The 10 most widely watched leading economic indicators are: ISM Manufacturing PMI new orders, building permits, 10‑year vs. 2‑year Treasury yield spread, initial jobless claims, Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), average weekly manufacturing hours, consumer expectations, S&P 500 performance, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods, and credit spreads.

What “Leading” Means

Leading indicators change direction before the broader economy does — they peak before recessions and trough before recoveries. This makes them valuable for forecasting rather than confirming past trend.

The 10 Key Leading Indicators

1. ISM Manufacturing PMI – New Orders Sub‑Index
   Tracks new manufacturing orders; a sub‑50 reading with falling momentum often signals an upcoming recession. Leads industrial production by 3–6 months.
2. Building Permits
   Measures housing starts; leads construction activity by 1–3 months and the broader housing cycle by 6–12 months.
3. 10‑Year vs. 2‑Year Treasury Yield Spread
   Inversions (10y > 2y) can precede recessions by 12–18 months; re‑steepening after inversion signals higher risk.
4. Initial Jobless Claims
   Weekly measure of labor market stress; sustained rises (20%+ from trough) have preceded modern recessions.
5. Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
   Composite of 10 series, including the above, designed to signal near‑term economic direction.
6. Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing
   Falling hours often precede layoffs by 3–6 months, signaling reduced business demand.
7. Consumer Expectations (U‑Mich Index)
   Declines forecast slower consumer spending and discretionary market pullbacks.
8. S&P 500 Performance
   Persistent 6‑month declines have historically preceded GDP contractions.
9. Manufacturers’ New Orders for Consumer Goods
   Reflects forward demand; Census M3 series leads industrial production.
10. Credit Spreads (HY OAS)
    Widening spreads (>100 bps over 60 days) have often preceded equity drawdowns.

How to Use Them

No single indicator is infallible. Analysts watch the aggregate signal — the LEI and other composites help filter noise and improve forecast accuracy.

Tip: For U.S. investors, monitoring these indicators monthly can help anticipate shifts in growth, inflation, and market sentiment, enabling proactive business and investment decisions.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors1738@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Like, Refer and Subscribe

HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731

CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900

ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

FINANCE:Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors

INSURANCE:Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance

Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security

Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

***

Filed under: iMBA, Inc. | Tagged: books, economic indicators, economy, Marcinko, politics | Leave a comment »