Stocks & Commodities

Posted on July 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: President Trump said there’s a “50/50 chance” of a deal with the EU ahead of next week’s deadline. Investors decided they like those odds, and pushed the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to yet another new closing record high—in fact, the S&P 500 set a new record every day this week. Meanwhile, trade deal talks with Brazil have reportedly stalled.
  • Commodities: Oil fell to a three-week low today as Iran signaled a willingness to come to the negotiating table with European powers for nuclear talks.
  • Hopes of trade deals and less need for a safe haven investment pushed gold prices lower.

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AGREE: Consistency and Group-Think Commitment Tendency

Posted on July 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

“lemming effect” or “group-think”

By Staff Reporters

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According to psychologist and colleague Dan Ariely PhD, human beings have evolved – probably both genetically and socially – to be consistent.  It is easier and safer to deal with others if they honor their commitments and if they behave in a consistent and predictable manner over time. This allows people to work together and build trust that is needed for repeat dealings and to accomplish complex tasks. 

In the jungle, this trust was necessary to for humans to successfully work as a team to catch animals for dinner, or fight common threats.  In business and life it is preferable to work with others who exhibit these tendencies.  Unfortunately, the downside of these traits is that people make errors in judgment because of the strong desire not to change, or be different (“lemming effect” or “group-think”).  So the result is that most people will seek out data that supports a prior stated belief or decision and ignore negative data, by not “thinking outside the box”. 

Additionally, future decisions will be unduly influenced by the desire to appear consistent with prior decisions, thus decreasing the ability to be rational and objective.  The more people state their beliefs or decisions, the less likely they are to change even in the face of strong evidence that they should do so.  This bias results in a strong force in most people causing them to avoid or quickly resolve the cognitive dissonance that occurs when a person who thinks of themselves as being consistent and committed to prior statements and actions encounters evidence that indicates that prior actions may have been a mistake.  It is particularly important therefore for advisors to be aware that their communications with clients and the press clouds the advisor’s ability to seek out and process information that may prove current beliefs incorrect. 

Since this is obviously irrational, one must actively seek out negative information, and be very careful about what is said and written, being aware that the more you shout it out, the more you pound it in.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare Advantage Payment Delays as Stock Markets Split

Posted on July 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Stat: $3+ million. That’s how much Medicare and Medicare Advantage drug plans have been ordered to pay for “inappropriately delaying or denying” services in the first four months of this year—more than the past four years combined, one analysis finds. (Healthcare Dive)

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up

  • Las Vegas Sands added 4.31% after crushing analyst estimates last quarter.
  • Deutsche Bank rose 7.83% to a decade high after shareholders applauded the financial firm’s turnaround efforts.
  • T-Mobile US gained 5.8% thanks to a better-than-expected quarter for the telecom giant.
  • Bloom Energy popped 22.95% on the news that it made a deal with Oracle to provide the tech company’s AI data centers with power.
  • Enterprise software maker ServiceNow jumped 4.16% on management’s promise of more AI growth ahead.
  • West Pharmaceutical Services soared 22.78% on the news that demand for GLP-1 products remains strong.

What’s down

  • IBM dropped 7.62% despite beating analysts expectations on the top and bottom lines last quarter. Shareholders didn’t like to hear management warn of slowing software sales.
  • UnitedHealth Group fell 4.76% on reports that the health insurer is cooperating with the DOJ’s investigation into its Medicare billing practices.
  • Tough day for airlines: American Airlines sank 9.62% after lowering its forward guidance, and Southwest Airlines lost 11.16% after missing analyst earnings estimates.
  • Luxury goods maker LVMH sank 3.66% after sales fell 4% last quarter as the high-fashion industry gets hit with tariff turmoil.
  • Union Pacific fell 4.43% after it confirmed it’s in talks to acquire smaller rival Norfolk Southern, which also lost 0.81%.
  • Honeywell International beat-and-raised earnings last quarter, but the stock still stumbled 6.18% lower.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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