Efficient Market Hypothesis – or Perhaps Not?

Contradicting the Hypothesis

[A SPECIAL ME-P REPORT]

[By Timothy J McIntosh MBA CFP® MPH CMP™ [Hon]

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Not everyone believes in the efficient market.  Numerous researchers over the previous decades have found stock market anomalies that indicate a contradiction with the hypothesis.  The search for anomalies is effectively the hunt for market patterns that can be utilized to outperform passive strategies.

white swan

[White Swan of the EMH]

Such stock market anomalies that have been proven to go against the findings of the EMH theory include:

  1. Low Price to Book Effect
  2. January Effect
  3. The Size Effect
  4. Insider Transaction Effect
  5. The Value Line Effect

The Anomalies

All the above anomalies have been proven over time to outperform the market.  For example, the first anomaly listed above is the Low Price to Book Effect.  The first and most discussed study on the performance of low price to book value stocks was by Dr. Eugene Fama and Dr. Kenneth R. French.  The study covered the time period from 1963-1990 and included nearly all the stocks on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. The stocks were divided into ten subgroups by book/market and were re-ranked annually.

In the study, Fama and French found that the lowest book/market stocks outperformed the highest book/market stocks by a substantial margin (21.4 percent vs. 8 percent).  Remarkably, as they examined each upward decile, performance for that decile was below that of the higher book value decile.  Fama and French also ordered the deciles by beta (measure of systematic risk) and found that the stocks with the lowest book value also had the lowest risk.

What is Value?

Today, most researchers now deem that “value” represents a hazard feature that investors are compensated for over time.  The theory being that value stocks trading at very low price book ratios are inherently risky, thus investors are simply compensated with higher returns in exchange for taking the risk of investing in these value stocks.

The Fama and French research has been confirmed through several additional studies.  In a Forbes Magazine 5/6/96 column titled “Ben Graham was right–again,” author David Dreman published his data from the largest 1500 stocks on Compustat for the 25 years ending 1994. He found that the lowest 20 percent of price/book stocks appreciably outperformed the market.

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Ex-Cathedra black swan

[Ex-Cathedra or Black Swan Event]

Assessment

One item a medical professional should be aware of is the strong paradox of the efficient market theory.   If each investor believes the stock market were efficient, then all investors would give up analyzing and forecasting.  All investors would then accept passive management and invest in index funds.

But, if this were to happen, the market would no longer be efficient because no one would be scrutinizing the markets.  In actuality, the efficient market hypothesis actually depends on active investors attempting to outperform the market through diligent research

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The Author

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist.  He is featured in publications like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, Investment Advisor, Fortune, MD News, Tampa Doctor’s Life, and The St. Petersburg Times.  He has been recognized as a Five Star Wealth Manager in Texas Monthly magazine; and continuously named as Medical Economics’ “Best Financial Advisors for Physicians since 2004.  And, he is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com., a premier website of investment opinion. Mr. McIntosh earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from Florida State University; Master of Business Administration (M.B.A) degree from the University of Sarasota; Master of Public Health Degree (M.P.H) from the University of South Florida and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® practitioner. His previous experience includes employment with Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Florida, Enterprise Leasing Company, and the United States Army Military Intelligence.

Conclusion

So, what about the “January Effect for 2025“?

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Medicare Advantage [Part C] Plans Face Headwinds

By Health Capital Consultants, LLC

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With the annual enrollment period for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans slated to open in less than two months, many MA plans are cutting benefits and provider payments, while approving fewer claims. Further, after a decade of accelerated growth in the MA market, several MA plan executives have announced MA market exits and decreases in membership for the upcoming plan year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

This Health Capital Topics article discusses recently announced MA market exits, the reasons for those exits, and the current environment in which MA plans are operating. (Read more...)

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

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Integration as a Competitive Strategy in Healthcare Reform

Understanding Horizontal and Vertical Integration

ENCORE PRESENTATION

[By Robert James Cimasi MHA, AVA, CMP™]

Health Capital Consultants, LLC

St. Louis MO

Several potential benefits are associated with the integration of companies in the same or related industries. These synergistic benefits depend upon the type of companies and their integration strategies, as well as whether the anticipated transaction is a manifestation of horizontal consolidation or vertical integration.

Horizontal consolidation is “the acquisition and consolidation of like organizations or business ventures under a single corporate management, in order to produce synergy, reduce redundancies and duplication of efforts or products, and achieve economies of scale while increasing market share.”

Vertical integration involves the joining of organizations that are fundamentally different in their product and/or services offerings, i.e., “the aggregation of dissimilar but related business units, companies, or organizations under a single ownership or management in order to provide a full range of related products and services.”

Healthcare Locality

As healthcare is essentially a local business, horizontal integration within the local market has been limited by antitrust laws. Therefore, in order to control greater market share, a hospital’s strategy has required vertical integration. Healthcare providers and organizations have placed much emphasis on the benefits of vertical system integration in the last 10 or more years, whereby a single healthcare organization owns all of the elements needed to provide a continuum of care for all the needs of a given patient population. Much of this effect has stemmed from the desire to be able provide a “continuum of care,” i.e., to be able to single source contract for the healthcare needs of a patient population and to profit from implementing preventative healthcare and utilization management measures. The relative economic benefits of this type of vertical integration versus horizontal integration strategies remain the subject of great debate in academia and among the strategic managers of other industries. One lesson that may be drawn from other industries is that neither of these forms of integration is universally applicable or beneficial to every organization and market. There are also great costs to integration, which must be outweighed by the benefits. Each specific benefit should be identified and researched when examining the probable effects of integration, consolidation, mergers or divestitures as a competitive strategy.

Rapid Consolidation Periods

During the rapid consolidation and integration of healthcare providers, insurers, and purchasers, in recent years, there was much discussion of a concept termed “managed competition.” This term appears to have been an outgrowth of the term “managed care” and was viewed by many as the logical result of the integration of healthcare markets nationally. The concept of “managed competition” apparently related to an idealized vision of competition between very large, integrated providers (organized into integrated delivery systems), large, national managed care payors, and purchasing group coalitions that could achieve a balance of power between these interacting groups. However, many believe that the result of such an arrangement would more likely be a reduction in competition between members of each of these three groups and the creation of powerful bureaucratic and intractable organizations. Further, this scenario does not appear to effectively remove any of the existing barriers to competition and therefore doesn’t introduce any additional incentives for innovation to produce value for consumers which, of course, is the “sine qua non” of competition.

Disadvantages

The disadvantages of integration are becoming apparent, including:

  • the loss of autonomy;
  • increased bureaucracy;
  • difficulty in aligning incentives; and
  • other failed expectations.

Many organizations that sought strategic advantage through integration are ending those arrangements and now divesting acquired organizations.

Other Industries

In other industries, specialized providers of goods and services are increasingly able to offer customers a full range of services through affiliation and affinity with other independent specialists, made more seamless through the use of increasingly sophisticated communications and computing technologies. However, this move to “dis-integration” must also be carefully considered if organizations are not to make further costly organizational changes inspired by a rushed judgment of general market trends.

Porter Speaks

Michael Porter (et al.) wrote in the Harvard Business Review that,

In industry after industry, the underlying dynamic is the same: competition compels companies to deliver increasing value to customers. The fundamental driver of this continuous quality improvement and cost reduction is innovation. Without incentives to sustain innovation in health care, short-term cost savings will soon be overwhelmed by the desire to widen access, the growing health needs of an aging population, and the unwillingness of Americans to settle for anything less than the best treatments available. Inevitably, the failure to promote innovation will lead to lower quality or more rationing of care — two equally undesirable results.

Assessment

Therefore, if the emerging healthcare industry is to respond successfully to the Affordable Care Act [ACA] and related market pressures to reduce costs, then the healthcare market must first create incentives for innovation. The barriers to competition cannot include barriers to innovation as many do now. Physicians, nurses, healthcare purchasers, managers, and legislators must ensure innovation takes the forefront of any reform, if it is to be effective.

Conclusion

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