Are We Over-Optimizing Portfolio Asset Classes?

Too Many Other Asset Classes?

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[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA

Some financial analysts believe that the focus on asset classes may have gone too far as physicians and other investors have sought to “over optimize” their portfolios.

In fact, colleague David Loeper, CEO of Wealthcare Capital Management, explained this concept as follows:

“Where things have really got off track has been the insistence on breaking asset classes into sub-classes by style, market capitalization, etc. The unpredictability of all the inputs into our optimizers, even over long periods of time, has been ignored. We have attempted to take efficient portfolios of stocks, bonds and cash and make them even more efficient by breaking the unpredictable asset classes into even less predictable sub-classes. This has all been done into the pursuit of “efficiency” as the proposal was validated by the Brinson & Beebower study, which purports to find that over 90% of the investment return variance is explained by asset allocation. The risk that you produce inefficient portfolios INCREASES if you increase the number of “asset classes” for which you must forecast not only the risk and returns but also each asset class’ correlation to the others.”

Assessment

If true, and I think it is a valid point, the results of the optimizer and your resulting portfolio’s efficiency is based on the accuracy of the inputs and NOT THE NUMBER OF THE INPUTS.

Stock_Market

Or, is this like the TNTC situation in cell cultures and microbiology [Too Numerous To Count].

Conclusion

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Healthcare

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The healthcare industry has tried for years—but to little avail—to figure out how artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to make work easier and improve patient care.

Despite the middling success healthcare has had with AI, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), the largest venture capital firm in the US, has bet big on healthcare AI startups in the past year. The firm has invested in at least four startups and co-led three funding rounds totaling $328 million.

Investment partner Daisy Wolf and general partner Vijay Pande at a16z wrote in an August blog post that the VC firm is aware that “the AI hype cycle has hit healthcare before.” But, the two partners wrote, “we’re excited by today’s overlap of data availability, public foundation models, and widespread interest.”

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens, Healthcare Fraud and Opioids as Stock Markets Hurt

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In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, CEO Tim Wentworth said the pharmacy chain Walgreens will shutter a significant share of its 8,600 locations in the US. The closures are part of a broader attempt to boost the ailing company, which also includes reducing its stake in the primary care business VillageMD. Wentworth said the company can reassign most employees instead of conducting layoffs. Shares cratered yesterday after Walgreens whiffed on Wall Street’s earnings projections due to weak consumer spending.

And, read how some counties reduced opioid overdose deaths during the pandemic. (Politico)

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What’s up

  • Oliveda International, which makes beauty products from olive oil, rose 38.33% for no apparent reason. Maybe people just really like the feel of extra virgin olive oil on their skin?
  • Infinera popped 16.38% after Nokia announced it would acquire the telecommunications hardware manufacturer for $2.3 billion.
  • Synchrony Financial rose 6.17% after a Baird analyst initiated coverage of the financial services company with an outperform rating.
  • Regional banking stocks rose on the hopes that a good PCE reading means a better chance of the Fed cutting rates soon. Regions Financial rose 3.83%, while Citizens Financial Group rose 3.16%.

What’s down

A late round of selling in the Treasury market sent yields to fresh highs as the day ended so here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) dipped 22.39 points (0.41%) to 5,460.48; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 45.20 points (0.12%) to 39,118.86; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) lost 126.08 points (0.71%) to 17,732.6.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield climbed nine basis points to 4.38%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) moved up slightly to 12.43.

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Nearly 200 people have been charged for their roles in various health care fraud schemes across the U.S. that federal authorities say amounted to over $2.7 billion in intended losses, the Justice Department announced. Attorney General Merrick Garland said charges against 193 people, including 76 doctors, nurse practitioners, and other licensed medical professionals in 32 different federal districts. The defendants were charged over a two-week sweep involving numerous law enforcement agencies nationwide, resulting in the seizure of more than “$231 million in cash, luxury vehicles, gold, and other assets,” according to Garland.

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BEWARE FINANCIAL ADVISORS: ChatGPT and A.I. is Coming for Your Job?

Finance Jobs (Financial Analysts, Personal Financial Advisors and Consultants, etc.)

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Like market research analysts, financial analysts, personal financial advisors, and other jobs in personal finance that require manipulating significant amounts of numerical data can be affected by Artificial Intelligence, Mark Muro, a researcher at The Brookings Institute, said recently.

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“AI can identify trends in the market, highlight what investments in a portfolio are doing better and worse, communicate all that, and then use various other forms of data by, say, a financial company to forecast a better investment mix.” 

These analysts make a lot of money, he said, but parts of their jobs are auto-matable.

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