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August 2026 U.S. CPI Inflation Numbers
In August 2026, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year, while core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually.
Key figures
- Headline CPI (MoM): +0.4% (forecast: 0.4%)
- Headline CPI (YoY): +3.4% (unchanged from July)
- Core CPI (MoM): +0.3% (forecast: 0.2%)
- Core CPI (YoY): +2.4% (unchanged from July).
Drivers of the change
- Energy: Gasoline prices jumped 3.9%, accounting for over one‑third of the monthly CPI gain; the energy index rose 2.1% and was up 16.3% YoY.
- Food: Overall food prices rose 0.1% MoM; food at home was flat, while food away from home increased 0.3%.
- Shelter: Shelter costs rose 0.3% MoM.
- Other services: Transportation services up 0.5% MoM.
Market and policy context
The August report was the final major inflation data point before the Fed’s September policy meeting. While headline and annual rates matched expectations, the core CPI monthly gain was faster than forecast, prompting traders to raise odds of a quarter‑point Fed rate hike . The 2‑year Treasury yield rose to ~4.61% and FedWatch odds for a hike approached 90%.
Summary: August’s CPI showed a modest monthly acceleration driven largely by energy, with underlying inflation (core) also picking up. Annual inflation held steady at 3.4%, but the core monthly rate’s surprise uptick kept pressure on the Fed to consider tightening.
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