Don’t let Population Health Demographic Trends Guide “Investment” Decisions

A Different Perspective on Population Health

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Definition

Population health has been defined as “the health outcomes of a group of individuals, including the distribution of such outcomes within the group”. It is an approach to health that aims to improve the health of an entire human population or cohort. http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

History

In fact, the nominal “father of population health” is colleague and Dean David B. Nash MD MBA of Jefferson Medical School in Philadelphia. And, although I attended Temple University down the street, David still wrote the Foreword to my textbook years later; Financial Management Strategies for Hospitals and Healthcare Organizations [Tools, Techniques, Checklists and Case Studies].

Factors

Now age, income, location, race, gender  and education are just a few characteristics that differentiate the world’s population. These are called ”disparities” and they have a major impact on people’s lives; especially their healthcare. And, I’ve written about them before.  Perform a ME-P “search” for more.

So, it’s only natural that we’re keeping an eye on two major demographic trends: aging baby boomers and maturing Millennials [1982-2002 approximately].

Why it’s important

The impact of large population shifts propagate throughout an economy benefitting certain sectors more than others and influencing a country’s growth prospects; tantalizing investing ideas?

Example:

For example, as baby boomers retire, we’ll likely see higher spending on health care, but less on education and raising children. Likewise, tech-savvy Millennials will likely prioritize consumption on experiences over cars and houses [leading economic indicator].

So, can we profit from these trends?

Assessment

Well maybe – maybe not! Overall economic prospects may not be completely affected by these trends. Spending habits on combined goods and services will shift, rather than rise or decline.

So, be careful. What matters most for your investment success is your demographics and investing according to your personal circumstances and goals [paradox-of-thrift].

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

Subscribe: MEDICAL EXECUTIVE POST for curated news, essays, opinions and analysis from the public health, economics, finance, marketing, IT, business and policy management ecosystem.

***

Consumer Confidence and Savings Rates

Join Our Mailing List

Are Doctors Just Like the Rest of Us?

By Rick Kahler CFP® MS ChFC CCIM

www.kahlerfinancial.com

After a short period of saving more of their disposable income at the depths of the recent recession, Americans are returning to recent historical patterns of spending more and saving less.

Usually this trend indicates “happy days are here again” as the decline in savings means consumers’ confidence is rising. That is not the case today. Consumer confidence is just half of what it was at the peak of the “good old days” of 2007. That year our national savings rate was 2.1%, just above its post-WWII low in 2005 of 1.5%.

A Jobless Recovery?

As millions of jobs disappeared and consumers hunkered down during the 2008-09 recession, our savings rate almost tripled. In 2008 it was 6.2%. This thriftiness didn’t last long; by the fall of 2011 our savings rate was back to a paltry 3.6%.

American Not Always Big Spenders

We were not always such spenders. During the four years of WWII we saved over 20% of disposable income annually. Between 1974 and 1992 the savings rate often bounced between 7% and 11%. Since 1992, the beginning of the unprecedented 18-year bull market in stocks, our personal savings rate reflected the good times in the economy and averaged just 4%.

Savings Rate Decline

One possible reason for the decline in the savings rate in the past three years may be that we’re paying off all the consumer debt that got us into trouble in the first place. In 2000 our individual debt load (including student loans and mortgages) was $19,750 per person. In the fall of 2011 it was $36,420, 8.6% less than the 2008 high but 85% higher than the 2000 amount.

Running out of Money?

While Americans are not substantially reducing their debt, their equity in home ownership plunged from $12.9 trillion in 2006 to $6.2 trillion in 2011. No wonder consumer confidence is so low.

It appears our return to low savings rates isn’t the result of renewed optimism, paying down personal debt, or a surging economy, but rather that Americans are running out of money in the face of staggering personal debt and declining net worth. This leaves them incredibly vulnerable to another downturn in the economy.

Ironically, Americans’ personal finances are a reflection of our government’s fiscal woes. Washington also finds itself compromised to respond to a national emergency because of a debt that exceeds our national income.

Personal Three-Pronged Approach

There isn’t much you and I can do about our government’s over-indebtedness and overspending except to vote for politicians that promise to end the insanity and hold them accountable. But, we can take better care of our own affairs with a three-pronged approach.

1. Get out of debt. We may not be able to earn more or work harder, but I’ll guarantee you that we can spend less.

2. Start saving for emergencies. You need one savings account for periodic expenses like medical deductibles and car repairs. A second is for bona fide emergencies like losing your job or the death of a spouse. It should represent six to 12 times your monthly expenses.

3. Start investing for financial independence. Ideally, you need to put aside 15% to 35% of your income for the time you no longer can or want to work.

Assessment

The hardest part of this approach is becoming willing to downsize your lifestyle. Too many of us say we are willing to cut spending and economize until it actually comes time to do it. In the two decades before the recession, Americans got out of the habit of making hard decisions in our own best interests. However, as our historical patterns show, we’ve treated ourselves with “tough love” in the past. When we have to, we can do it again.

Conclusion    

And so, your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. When it comes to consumer confidence and savings rates, are doctors and medical professionals just like the rest of us?

Please review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Our Other Print Books and Related Information Sources:

Health Dictionary Series: http://www.springerpub.com/Search/marcinko

Practice Management: http://www.springerpub.com/product/9780826105752

Physician Financial Planning: http://www.jbpub.com/catalog/0763745790

Medical Risk Management: http://www.jbpub.com/catalog/9780763733421

Healthcare Organizations: www.HealthcareFinancials.com

Physician Advisors: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.com

Subscribe Now: Did you like this Medical Executive-Post, or find it helpful, interesting and informative? Want to get the latest ME-Ps delivered to your email box each morning? Just subscribe using the link below. You can unsubscribe at any time. Security is assured.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Sponsors Welcomed: And, credible sponsors and like-minded advertisers are always welcomed.

Link: https://healthcarefinancials.wordpress.com/2007/11/11/advertise


Product Details  Product Details

About Suicide Economics

Thinking the Unthinkable

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA CMP™

Staff Reporters

According to the Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2008, voters in Washington State just passed an initiative legalizing physician-assisted suicide.

Passed by a Margin of 3:2

A state measure known as “Initiative 1000” passed by a margin of 59% to 41%, making it legal for doctors to prescribe a lethal dose of medication for patients with less than six months to live. The law is packed with provisions intended to limit the practice. For example, patients must make two separate requests, orally and in writing, more than two weeks apart; must be of sound mind and not suffering from depression; and must have their request approved by two separate doctors.

The Oregon Experience

However, doctors are not allowed to administer the lethal dose. In Oregon, the only other state with a similar law, some 341 patients have committed physician-assisted suicide in the 11 years the law has been in effect.

Economics of Assisted Suicide

Decades ago, the economist John Maynard Keynes’s suggested that saving may be a private virtue, but a public vice. According to Keynes, a community that seeks to increase its rate of saving would end up impoverishing itself and actually saving less. But, the community that increases its consumption at the expense of saving would end-up being richer and saving more. This proposition is frequently stated in macroeconomics textbooks as the “paradox of thrift.”

Assessment

The average lifespan, in the US, was about 67 years when Medicare was passed. It is about 78 today. Rising healthcare costs are led by this longevity. In other words, death financially supports survivors.  

Conclusion

And so, is “Initiative 1000” a human socio-economic metaphor for the “thrift-paradox”; please opine and comment?

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com 

Subscribe Now: Did you like this Medical Executive-Post, or find it helpful, interesting and informative? Want to get the latest ME-Ps delivered to your email box each morning? Just subscribe using the link below. You can unsubscribe at any time. Security is assured.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Product DetailsProduct DetailsProduct Details

Product Details  Product Details

   Product Details 

%d bloggers like this: