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Consumer Confidence and Savings Rates

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Are Doctors Just Like the Rest of Us?

By Rick Kahler CFP® MS ChFC CCIM

www.kahlerfinancial.com

After a short period of saving more of their disposable income at the depths of the recent recession, Americans are returning to recent historical patterns of spending more and saving less.

Usually this trend indicates “happy days are here again” as the decline in savings means consumers’ confidence is rising. That is not the case today. Consumer confidence is just half of what it was at the peak of the “good old days” of 2007. That year our national savings rate was 2.1%, just above its post-WWII low in 2005 of 1.5%.

A Jobless Recovery?

As millions of jobs disappeared and consumers hunkered down during the 2008-09 recession, our savings rate almost tripled. In 2008 it was 6.2%. This thriftiness didn’t last long; by the fall of 2011 our savings rate was back to a paltry 3.6%.

American Not Always Big Spenders

We were not always such spenders. During the four years of WWII we saved over 20% of disposable income annually. Between 1974 and 1992 the savings rate often bounced between 7% and 11%. Since 1992, the beginning of the unprecedented 18-year bull market in stocks, our personal savings rate reflected the good times in the economy and averaged just 4%.

Savings Rate Decline

One possible reason for the decline in the savings rate in the past three years may be that we’re paying off all the consumer debt that got us into trouble in the first place. In 2000 our individual debt load (including student loans and mortgages) was $19,750 per person. In the fall of 2011 it was $36,420, 8.6% less than the 2008 high but 85% higher than the 2000 amount.

Running out of Money?

While Americans are not substantially reducing their debt, their equity in home ownership plunged from $12.9 trillion in 2006 to $6.2 trillion in 2011. No wonder consumer confidence is so low.

It appears our return to low savings rates isn’t the result of renewed optimism, paying down personal debt, or a surging economy, but rather that Americans are running out of money in the face of staggering personal debt and declining net worth. This leaves them incredibly vulnerable to another downturn in the economy.

Ironically, Americans’ personal finances are a reflection of our government’s fiscal woes. Washington also finds itself compromised to respond to a national emergency because of a debt that exceeds our national income.

Personal Three-Pronged Approach

There isn’t much you and I can do about our government’s over-indebtedness and overspending except to vote for politicians that promise to end the insanity and hold them accountable. But, we can take better care of our own affairs with a three-pronged approach.

1. Get out of debt. We may not be able to earn more or work harder, but I’ll guarantee you that we can spend less.

2. Start saving for emergencies. You need one savings account for periodic expenses like medical deductibles and car repairs. A second is for bona fide emergencies like losing your job or the death of a spouse. It should represent six to 12 times your monthly expenses.

3. Start investing for financial independence. Ideally, you need to put aside 15% to 35% of your income for the time you no longer can or want to work.

Assessment

The hardest part of this approach is becoming willing to downsize your lifestyle. Too many of us say we are willing to cut spending and economize until it actually comes time to do it. In the two decades before the recession, Americans got out of the habit of making hard decisions in our own best interests. However, as our historical patterns show, we’ve treated ourselves with “tough love” in the past. When we have to, we can do it again.

Conclusion    

And so, your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. When it comes to consumer confidence and savings rates, are doctors and medical professionals just like the rest of us?

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5 Responses

  1. Mr. Kahler,

    Axel Merk published a new Merk Insights newsletter recently … and entitled “Recovery – Who are We Kidding?”

    In it he explained that we are in a “period of war” between inflationary forces (central banks) and deflationary forces (markets).

    What do you think?

    Soverign

    Like

  2. Is the Economy Worse than We Think?

    At least one author thinks so. Why? The global slowdown infecting Europe and China has hit the US.

    http://money.msn.com/investment-advice/article.aspx?post=cfdbd09f-5ed0-41ee-80bd-9de89e5e007c

    But, is there’s some good news? Do investors now have a beautiful opportunity to profit from the chaos?

    Dr. Karlmichael

    Like

  3. Family net worth drops nearly 40 percent

    Between 2007 and 2010, the median net worth of the American family dropped 39 percent. This number goes a long way to explain why the economic recovery has been modest and remains fragile.

    Now, what about the docs?

    Benjamin

    Like

  4. Fed Says U.S. Wealth Fell 38.8%

    Benjamin – The financial crisis wiped out 18 years of gains for the median U.S. household net worth, with a 38.8 percent plunge from 2007 to 2010 that was led by the collapse in home prices, a Federal Reserve study showed.

    http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/11262-crisis-wiped-out-18-years-of-household-wealth-gains-fed-says.html

    Nakra

    Like

  5. Canadian Savings Rate

    According to TradingEconomics.com the current savings rate for Canadians is 1.7% of household income in the second quarter of 2019. Assuming the same income of $50,000, that is only $850 saved every year.

    Let’s assume that you start saving at 25. You put that $850 away every year. Assuming 6% returns, 2% inflation, and 40 years of contribution, that would leave you with just over $137,000 to fund your retirement.

    Although that sounds like a considerable sum, for most that is not enough to retire on. The rule of thumb when withdrawing funds for retirement is a 4% withdrawal rate. That would give you about $5,480. Even if you withdraw the full 6% of gains every year (assuming the market never goes down), you will only have an annual income of $8,220.

    Even in addition to CPP and OAS, $8,220 would not be sufficient for most people to retire on.

    Forbes Wealth Management

    Like

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