DAILY UPDATE: Holiday Spending Solid as Stock Market Rally Continues

By Staff Reporters

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Consumer spending grew solidly this holiday season, rebuking concerns of a slowdown and reinforcing positive signals about the U.S. economy as it approaches the end of a tumultuous year.

Buying among shoppers rose 3.1% over the holidays compared to the same period last year, according to data released on Tuesday by Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online purchases from November 1st to December 24th across all forms of payment. The data is not adjusted for inflation.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended: 

  • The S&P 500 index was up 20.12 points to 4,774.75 up 0.42%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 159.36 points at 37,54533, up 0.2% ; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) was up 81.6 points to 15,074.57 up 0.54% to start the week.  
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down 1 basis point to 3.895%.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.38% to 12.98.

Small-cap stocks continued to outpace their larger cousins, a common theme lately. The Russell 2000® Index rose Tuesday following six weeks of gains. Financials and real estate sectors were among strongest S&P 500 performers during the session, and the Russell 2000 has a heavy exposure to financials. In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its recent slide and now trades at five-month lows, reflecting ideas that potentially lower interest rates may prompt investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.

With just three trading days left in 2023, the S&P 500 and other major equity benchmarks are poised to turn in a strong year that may more than make up for 2022’s losses. With Tuesday’s gains factored in, the SPX is closing in on its all-time high close just below 4,800 posted in early 2022. Through Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up more than 24% for the year, after tumbling 19.4% in 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite were up 13% and 44%, respectively, after losing 8.8% and 33% in 2022.

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DAILY UPDATE: Holiday Spending Economics with Mixed Stock Markets

By Staff Reporters

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Shopping data reveals that Q4 isn’t as important as one might expect. For example, the holiday quarter in 2022 accounted for 26.8% of the year’s sales, just a hair over the 25% mark if sales were evenly spread across the year, per the US Census Bureau. Of course, some types of retailers depend on the holiday quarter far more than others. Discretionary retailers (which sell the things you want, but don’t need…aka gifts) rely on Q4 for up to 40% of their yearly sales, according to McKinsey. For department stores, clothing stores, and toy stores, the holiday season really is make-or-break. GameStop, for instance, recorded 37% of its annual revenue last year in the last three months of 2022.

But for other retailers, Q4 isn’t such a big deal. People apparently read throughout the year because book stores only depend on the fourth quarter for 27.4% of sales. People also need to eat food all year long: Q4 accounted for 26.3% of sales for grocery stores.

Meanwhile, gas stations, car dealerships, and building material companies perform worse in the holiday quarter than at other times of the year.

Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

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The S&P 500 Index was 2.72 up points (0.1%) at 4,559.34, up 1% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average®(DJI) was up 117.12 points (0.3%) at 35,390.15, up 1.3% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite was down 15.00 points (0.1%) at 14,250.85, up 0.9% for the week.

  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 5 basis points at 4.47%.
  • CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.34 at 12.46.

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