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Is There a Six Month Deferral for the Fiscal Cliff?

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The Budget Control Act of 2011

By Children’s Home Society of Florida Foundation

Speaking in Chicago last week, Senate Whip Richard Durbin (D-IL) proposed a change in the plan to reduce spending starting January 1, 2013. Under the Budget Control Act of 2011, substantial spending cuts in both defense and Medicare providers will commence on that date. These cuts together with potential tax increases have been described as a “fiscal cliff” that could send the nation back into recession.

Spending Cuts

The spending cuts are required because the Joint Congressional Committee in 2011 was unable to agree on a budget and tax plan. The anticipated spending cuts are designed to reduce costs by $1.2 trillion over the next decade.

Sen. Durbin proposes delaying the spending cuts for a term of six months. The Budget Control Act would be modified to allow the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee an opportunity to develop a new plan.

Under Durbin’s proposal, the two committees must submit bills by June of 2013. The plans must total $4 trillion in budget savings. There would be $1.33 trillion in increased taxes and $2.67 trillion in budget reductions.

Assessment

Following hearings by both committees, the bill would need to be submitted to a conference committee. After passage by both the House and the Senate, the $4 trillion plan could be signed by the President. If all of those steps were completed by June 30, 2013, the mandatory budget cuts would not take place. They would be replaced by the agreements for tax increases and budget cuts in the new law.

Editor’s Note: The mandatory budget reductions in defense and Medicare take effect in 2013 because the Joint Congressional Committee was unable to agree on the balance of tax increases and budget reductions. There will be an opportunity for enacting new tax and budget provisions in the November session following the elections. Because the time is quite short for writing major legislation, many Senators and Representatives would like to defer action to 2013. However, there is a general reluctance to agree on the level of tax increases and budget reductions necessary for a compromise bill.

Conclusion

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Labor Day US Budget Deficit Estimated at $1.32 Trillion Dollars

Office of Management and Budget Report for 2011

By Children’s Home Society of Florida Foundation

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On September 1st, 2011, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released an updated estimate of the budget deficit. OMB Director Jacob Lew indicated that the deficit projections are now reduced.

OMB Projections

The February projection by OMB had been a deficit of $1.65 trillion for the current fiscal year. The new deficit number for fiscal year 2011 is $1.32 trillion. The larger number would be 10.9% of the economy. The reduced deficit number is still approximately 8.8% of the gross domestic product.

Lew gives credit to the Budget Control Act of 2011, signed by President Obama on August 2nd. Under the provisions of that act, there are substantial spending reductions.

Budget Committee Pleased

Senate Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (D-ND) was pleased with the lower budget numbers, but indicated there still is a long road to recovery. Referring to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, he stated, “It is my hope the committee exceeds its $1.5 trillion target. It is also critical that the special committee considers measures to address the near-turn struggling economy.”

Assessment

In his address on September 8th 2011, President Obama is expected to discuss both the Joint Select Committee and long-term budget goals.

The OMB report also estimated the total debt by the end of 2011. The federal debt is a combination of debt held by the public and various government trust funds. The debt held by the public at the end of 2011 is estimated to be $10.26 trillion or 72% of the economy.

Conclusion

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