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How Have Bonds Responded to Higher Interest Rates?

Posted on February 6, 2014 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A Survey of Economists

Recently, I pondered the possibility of interest rates rising and the impact it might have on bonds. The article was motivated by a Wall Street Journal survey of 50 top economists who forecasted the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond to rise to 3.47% by the end of 2014.

As you may know, the investment return of existing bonds tends to move inversely to interest rates. Consequently, there has been significant concern that bond values are due for a considerable drop, and investors have constantly questioned whether they should reduce their exposure to fixed-income investments.

The Forecast Results

So how has the economists’ forecast panned out through January? The 10-year Treasury bond began the year at 3.03%, but ended January at 2.65% — a significant decline.

As a result, bonds have generally increased in value. For instance, the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is up 1.88% since the New Year, while the iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF) is up 3.06%. Even the SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) is up .45% in 2014.

Why?

What has caused this unexpected result?

First, the historical inaccuracy of interest rate forecasts is well documented. A study by the University of North Carolina found economists predict future rates far less accurately than a random coin flip would fare as a predictor. Rising interest rates have been a general expectation since shortly after the market crash of 2008. Remember all the people who refinanced their homes away from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a fixed mortgage from 2010-2011 out of fear of rising rates? That rate hike still hasn’t come.

But, more important than the unpredictable nature of interest rates is the way bond performance has historically been related to the stock market’s performance.

In difficult market environments, the investment returns of stocks and bonds tend to have an inverse relationship. In fact, the S&P 500 (a broad measure of the U.S. stock market) has decreased in value during a calendar year five times since 1990 (1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008). In all five instances, the value of U.S. Government Bonds (as measured by the Barclays Long-Term Government Bond Index) has increased (6.29%, 20.28%, 4.34%, 16.99%, and 22.69%, respectively).

Performance of Equities

How have risky stocks performed in 2014? The S&P 500 is down -3.46%, the Dow Jones Developed Market ex-U.S. market index (a measure of international stock performance) is down -3.64%, and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down -8.63%.

It appears investors have fled stocks in a declining market and sought solace in the fixed income benefit that bonds provide, in-step with historic behavioral norms. Of course, higher demand for bonds means higher values. This last month has been a nice reminder of the stability bonds can add to a portfolio in a time of declining stock prices.

Assessment

While it is reasonable to expect interest rates to rise by some measure over the long-term, it would clearly be a mistake to dramatically shift your asset allocation away from bonds if they were determined to be a part of an investment portfolio that matches your risk tolerance.

January 2014 illustrated that bonds tend to increase in value and add benefit to a portfolio during market pullbacks, regardless of what interest rates are doing. In fact, bonds’ historical inverse relationship with stocks may be a larger determinate of performance than interest rate expectations.

More:

Conclusion

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Filed under: Investing | Tagged: bonds, BWX, fixed income investments, IEF, Lon Jefferies, LQD, S&P 500, U.S. Government Bonds, Wall Street Journal | 2 Comments »

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Bonds

Posted on January 7, 2014 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

On Interest and Exchange Rates

By Lon Jefferies MBA CFP® www.NetWorthAdvice.com

An interest rate hike has been widely anticipated for some time. According to an October survey of 50 top economists conducted by the Wall Street Journal, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was forecasted to rise nearly one percentage point to 3.47% by the end of 2014.

What impact would such a rise have on your investment or retirement portfolio?

The Impact

Christopher Philips, a senior analyst in Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group, points out the historical inaccuracy of such forecasts.

For instance, a similar survey conducted in 2010 had economists predicting a 4.24% 10-year Treasury yield by the end of the year, an increase from 3.61% at the time of the forecast. In actuality, rates declines to 3.30% at year-end. The inaccuracy of these forecasts is well documented.

In fact, as Allen Roth mentioned in the December issue of Financial Planning Magazine, a 2005 study by the University of North Carolina titled “Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates” found economists predict future rates far less accurately than a random coin flip would fare as a predictor.

Clearly, we can’t be confident what interest rates will do in 2014, but what if economists are finally correct and rates rise? How damaging would an interest rate increase be for bonds? If interest rates rise one percentage point next year, the intermediate aggregate bond index is expected to lose -2.8% — far from catastrophic. Of course, such potential risk is notably minimal when compared to the downside of owning stocks (remember the -36.93% loss endured by the S&P 500 in 2008?).

Historical Performance

It is also interesting to study how bonds have historically performed in periods of rising interest rates. Craig Israelsen, a BYU professor, recently documented how bonds performed during the two most recent periods of rate increases. Israelsen points out that although the federal discount rate rose from 5.46% to 13.42% from 1977 through 1981, the intermediate government/credit index had a 5.63% annualized return during that period. The next period of rising interest rates was from 2002 through 2006, when the federal discount rate had a fivefold increase: from 1.17% to 5.96%. During this period, the intermediate government/credit index obtained a 4.53% annual return. Clearly, even in an environment of rising interest rates, bond performance was surprisingly strong.

###

Most importantly, investors should never forget the value bonds add to a portfolio as a diversifier to stocks. Frequently, the performance of stocks and bonds are inversely related.

For instance, when the stock market suffered during the tech bubble crash of 2000-2002, the Barclays Long-Term Government Bond Index rose 20.28%, 4.34%, and 16.99% in those years, respectively.

Current Indices

More recently, when the S&P 500 lost -36.93% in 2008, the Long-Term Government Bond Index rose 22.69% during the year. This diversification benefit may prove useful when stocks ultimately cool off from the extended hot streak they have experienced since 2009.

In 2013, the Aggregate Bond Index decreased in value by -1.98%. Given the occasional negative correlation in performance between stocks and bonds, is it really surprising that bonds didn’t produce a positive return given the incredible year stocks had (S&P 500 up over 32%)? Additionally, held within a diversified portfolio, isn’t the -1.98% return produced by bonds during the recent equity surge a small price to pay for the additional security they are likely to provide when markets reverse?

Assessment

It doesn’t seem prudent to avoid bonds entirely during periods of expected interest rate increases.

First, forecasts of rising rates are far from certain.
Second, even if interest rates rise bonds are still likely to be far less risky than stocks.
Third, rising interest rates don’t necessarily mean declining bond values are a certainty – in fact, bonds performed quite well during the past two periods of rate increases.
Finally, bonds are a vitally important part of a diversified portfolio, and owning uncorrelated and negatively correlated assets will be critical when equities ultimately lose their momentum.

Conclusion

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Filed under: Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Allen Roth, Barclays Long-Term Government Bond, bonds, Christopher Philips, Craig Israelsen, Lon Jefferies, Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group, www.NetWorthAdvice.com | 2 Comments »

On Employer-Sponsored Retirement Plans

Posted on May 16, 2013 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Should I Stay … or … Should I Go?

By Guy P. Jones CFP® www.guypjones.com

Many ME-P readers may remember the song by the same name released in 1982 by English punk band, The Clash.

If you do and you were in your late 20’s or early 30’s then, you are probably asking the same question about your hospital, medical clinic or employer-sponsored retirement plans, 401k, 403b, 457b and the like, right now.

History

Since the 401k was introduced back in 1978, it has been promoted as the “holy grail” of retirement savings vehicles, mostly by the mutual fund companies that it favors. Since the introduction of the 401k, there has been a gradual, yet steady, decline in employer-sponsored pension plans by private sector employers to the point that they are almost nonexistent.

Unless you work for a very large company or work in the public sector, your pension plan was phased out a long time ago. This has thrust a myriad of decisions regarding retirement planning on a workforce that is ill prepared to make the proper choices as to appropriate investment options. They therefore have relied on their employer to choose for them. In doing so, we now have a retirement system that is fraught with poor performing, high-cost, limited-choice, loss-incurring investment options.

Another Option?

But, wait, what if there was another, better option for some of you? What would you do if you were suddenly handed a “Get Outta Jail Free Card” from your employer-sponsored retirement plan? Well, guess what, you just have! It’s called an “In-Service Distribution” or “In-Service Transfer” to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA).

So what exactly is an In-Service Distribution or In-Service Transfer?

An In-Service Distribution allows workers to empty their 401(k) accounts once they hit 59½. This means that they can take cash out, pay any ordinary income taxes due and spend what’s left. The same goes for participants in government and not-for-profit savings plans like 403b, 457b, and TSP accounts. Or, they can roll all the money into an IRA without paying tax now which is an In-Service Transfer.

Need to Know:

You first have to determine if your employer-sponsored plan even permits in-service distributions or transfers. It is determined by what was written in your company summary plan description.
Many plans permit workers to take out or rollover to an IRA when you reach 59½, but some plans also permit in-service distributions for those under the age of 59½. This permits them to get in-service distributions of money rolled over from previous plans, employer (but not employee) pretax contributions, employee after-tax contributions, and account earnings. If they spend the cash, instead of rolling it over, they will owe an extra 10% penalty on the taxable amount.
In doing an In-Service Transfer, you must make sure the rollover is to an IRA. In doing so, you avoid IRS taxation (and possibly penalties) on this money.
Some plans have already pre-approved this option and in many cases can process the in-service distribution or transfer to an IRA right over the phone. Other plans require the completion of some paperwork which then has to be signed by your employer.

[The Retired Doctor’s Lounge]

What Funds are eligible for In-Service Distributions or In-Service Transfers?

When you decide to rollover money from your current employer-sponsored plan to your own IRA while still employed, here are the funds that will be available, subject to the summary plan description:

Your employer contributions including match and profit sharing
Your personal after-tax contributions
Your pre-tax contributions when you reach age 59½.

Reasons to Do an In-Service Distribution or In-Service Transfer

Unlimited Control — With an IRA, you are the account owner and have more control over your assets, more control over the investment choices, and are free from the restrictions of your employer-sponsored plan.
Diversification — Most employer-sponsored plans offer limited investment options. Conversely, IRAs enable you to choose virtually any investment option including individual stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, real estate and precious metals. This flexibility can help you better diversify your retirement assets to meet your individual investment goals.
Beneficiary Options — IRAs allow non-spouse beneficiaries to stretch distributions from an IRA over their lifetimes. This type of beneficiary distribution option not only results in greater distributions over their lifetime, but also enables the beneficiary to minimize the taxes owed on the distributions. This is not available in most employer-sponsored plans, which may limit distribution choices for your beneficiaries.
Income Tax Withholding — Employer-sponsored plans have a mandatory 20% withholding tax on any cash distributions from the plan whereas IRAs allow you to choose whether you want tax withheld or not.
ROTH IRA Conversion Option — Since 2010, any one regardless of their income can convert a Traditional pre-tax IRA to a ROTH IRA where future earnings are tax-free. In addition, you are now permitted to roll 401(k) money directly into a Roth IRA. Income taxes would be due, but not the 10% IRS penalty for pre-59½ withdrawals. If you want to do a gradual conversion of your traditional IRA to a ROTH IRA to minimize taxes, this would be another benefit to getting it out of the employer plan into an IRA now.
Required Minimum Distributions — By getting your money out of the employer plan, you can do a conversion to a ROTH IRA to eliminate having to take RMDs starting at age 70½. RMDs affect the taxability of your Social Security benefits and by eliminating them, the taxation on your social security would be reduced.
Protect IRAs from Investment Losses — Generally, what is offered in employer qualified plans are mutual funds which can and will lose money in the event of a market decline. By doing an in-service transfer to an IRA, you can choose options that will protect these funds from investment losses, lock in gains, and create an income stream that you can never outlive.

###

[Physician Retirement Funds]

Drawbacks to doing an In-Service Distribution or In-Service Transfer

Age limitations — with employer plans, they allow participants who stop working at age 55 or older to take distributions without the 10% IRS penalty. In an IRA, you can’t take distributions until age 59½ without incurring the 10% penalty. If you plan to retire before age 59½, you may want to preserve penalty-free access to your retirement funds by not moving all of your 401(k) assets to an IRA before retirement
Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA) — tax treatment is not an option for distributions from IRAs. Therefore, if you hold highly appreciated company stock in your employer-sponsored plan, the transfer of that stock to an IRA eliminates any ability you may have to take advantage of NUA tax treatment.
Creditor protection — while IRAs now have federal bankruptcy protection, other IRA creditor protection is still determined by state laws. Texas affords unlimited bankruptcy protection of IRA assets from creditors. Qualified plan assets continue to have broad federal creditor protection.
New contributions to your existing plan — taking an in-service distribution may affect your ability to contribute to your employer-sponsored plan. Be sure to consult with your plan provider or employer HR department before implementing this.
Cost — fees related to having your own IRA could be more costly than the investment options inside the 401k, although this can be controlled by careful selection of IRA options.
After-tax dollars — after tax dollars are generally segregated in a qualified plan, and can often be distributed separately. If you move after-tax money into an IRA, that money becomes part of the non-deductible “basis” of the IRA and will not be separately accessible. To avoid paying tax again on your IRA “basis” when you take an IRA distribution, you must maintain careful records of the “basis” in your IRAs. This can become more of an issue in regards to doing a Roth IRA Conversion.
Loans — loans are permissible through your employer plan, generally up to 50% of the account balance not to exceed $50,000. These loans can be paid back over a 5 year period or 10 years if used to purchase a home. Loans are not permitted in IRAs or ROTH IRAs.

Assessment

So, if this is so great then why doesn’t everyone take advantage of doing an in-service distribution or in-service transfer? The biggest reason is that employers don’t want plan participants to know about it or exercise this option. The second reason is that people don’t understand it or think that by transferring money out of their plan, they will incur tax and/or penalties. Make sure you go through the facts with a professional or your 401(k) company to understand the rules.

Nobody can be certain when the next market meltdown will be. With many Boomers now approaching retirement, you have to keep your eye on what will be the bulk of your retirement assets.

For my part as a financial professional, if your plan allows in-service distributions or transfers and you were debating whether to get out of your employer plan, I would give you the same advice that Jennie gave Forrest Gump when he was being chased by the bullies: RUN FORREST, RUN!!

The Author

Guy P. Jones & Associates

21 Stone Creek Place
The Woodlands, TX 77382
832-677-1692
281-605-5370 fax

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Filed under: Retirement and Benefits | Tagged: 401(k), 403(b), 457b, bonds, Employer-Sponsored Retirement Plans, ETFs, Guy P. Jones, In-Service Transfer, individual retirement account, IRA Conversion Options, Mutual Funds, precious metals., real-estate, Required Minimum Distributions, stocks, TSP accounts | 1 Comment »

The “Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis”

Posted on August 16, 2010 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Physicians Returning to Zero?

[By Somnath Basu PhD, MBA]

How have your investments done over the last three years? If you were to ask doctors, or the myriads of people who are or even pose as professional financial advisors, they would generally say that it would depend on how well your portfolio was diversified. By this jargon, they would mean how your money (in what proportions) was invested among various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, cash etc. The more it was spread out around various asset classes, the safer they would have been.

To see how safe (or how risky) your portfolio was over the last few years, it’s useful to view how these asset classes themselves fared over this time period. That is what is shown in the next chart where the following asset class performances over the last few years are shown. The chart shows the performances of stocks (S&P 500 shown by the symbol ^GPSC, in red), bonds (symbol IEI, Barclay’s 3-7 Year Treasury Bond index etf, in light green), Commodities (DBC, Powershares etf, in dark green), Long dollar (UUP, Powershares long dollar etf, in orange; this fund allows speculating on the dollar going up against a basket of important currencies; whenever the world financial markets are in turmoil, this index generally goes up as investors around the world seek the “safe haven” status of the dollar.

Alternately, note that this index value will also typically rise when the domestic economy is in a sound condition and both domestic and international investors favor the U.S. financial markets) and the short dollar (UDN, the Powershares inverse of UUP). Note that the “Cash” asset class has been left out and returns on cash (or money market funds) have been close to zero the whole time.

There are a few startling observations from this period. The first part that arrests the eye is how commodities performed over this time period. If your portfolio was heavy in this sector, you had a heck of a ride these last three years. If you had a lot of stocks as well, heck, your ride just got wilder. As can also be seen from the picture, healthy doses of bonds and currencies would have made your ride that much smoother.

On the other hand, what is additionally startling to observe is that we all started this period close to zero returns in the beginning of 2007 (around March 2007) and in June 2010, we are all converging back to zero returns. No matter how you were diversified, you either took a smooth ride (well diversified portfolio) from a zero return environment to a zero return environment or a wilder ride. That is why diversification is so important. Another way to gauge your diversification benefit is to use a two-pronged system.

The first is what I refer to as the “monthly statement effect”. When your monthly financial statements come in, you first observe the current month’s ending balance, then the previous month’s ending balance and then have a great day, a lousy day or an uneventful day. Depending on how good or bad (how volatile the ride) the monthly effect is, it may last for much more than just a day, maybe days. The second piece is your age.

Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis

As you grow older, you ask yourself how wild a ride can you tolerate at this point in your life? Hopefully, as you age, this tolerance level should show significant declines. If it does, you are then joining a rational investment group practicing a “lifecycle-investment hypothesis” style. Finally, did anything do well during this time? Yes, and surprisingly from an asset class whose underlying asset is shaped too like a zero – mother earth and real estate. Having some real estate in your investment basket (another important diversification asset) would not only have smoothed your ride but would have made your financial life so much more pleasurable. Just take a look at this picture below (FRESX, an old Fidelity’s real estate index fund) which says it all.

Assessment

Even in the darkest days of falling real estate markets of 2008, this fund produced a positive return. Of course many other real estate indexes lost their bottoms; thus finding these stable indexes in all asset classes are well worth their salt. That is, if it is time for you to diversify.

Conclusion

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Filed under: Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management, Research & Development | Tagged: bonds, CASH, commodities, FRESX, Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis, real-estate, Somnath Basu, stocks, UDN, UUP | 5 Comments »

Broker Compensation for Debt-Based Securities

Posted on April 15, 2009 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Understanding Commission Methods for Selling Investments

By Staff Reporters

Brokers earn commissions on debt instruments based on the spread, or markup, between the price at which the broker can secure the bond and the price at which it is sold.

Bond Funds

In the case of bond funds, the fund charges a management fee and/or an expense fee. There may or may not be a load, or commission, paid to a broker.

Assessment

For more terminology information, please refer to the Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance.

www.HealthDictionarySeries.com

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Filed under: Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: bond brokers, bond fees, bond funds, bond price, bonds, broker, commissions, debst instruments, debt based securities, load, markup, sales load | Leave a comment »

Understanding Managed Bond Funds

Posted on March 29, 2009 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Considerations for the Physician-Investor

By Staff Reporters

Proper diversification among types of bonds is an important investment objective. The maturity schedule and the number of issuers are often very important, along with the issuers’ creditworthiness.

Individual Constraints

The constraints on purchases of individual bond issues often put the physician-investor at a disadvantage. Minimum amounts of investments are imposed by the marketplace or the issuer. Many doctor-investors find it impractical to meet these requirements and also obtain proper diversification (the amount of portfolio funds committed to debt-based securities simply is not large enough to obtain diversification and at the same time meet the other limitations). Accordingly, many investors find mutual funds devoted to debt-based securities most effective in achieving diversification.

A Large Marketplace

The mutual fund marketplace has many types of bond funds, and diversification can be obtained quite easily. The investor with a relatively reduced amount to invest in debt-based securities should consider using mutual funds.

Assessment

For more terminology information, please refer to the Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance.

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Filed under: Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: bond funds, bond insuror's, bond rating, bonds, credit, credit rating, credit rating agency, creditworthiness, debt securities, debts, junk bonds, municipal bonds, mutual bond funds, Mutual Funds, revenue bonds, treasury bonds | 3 Comments »

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