The [Negative] Short-Term Implications of Investment Portfolio Diversification

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Delving Deeper into Asset Allocation

By Lon Jefferies MBA CFP® CMP®

Lon JeffriesAsset allocation is one of the key factors contributing to long-term investment success.

When designing a portfolio that represents their risk tolerance, investors should be aware that a portfolio that is 50% stocks is likely to obtain approximately half of the gain when the market advances but suffer only half the loss when the market declines.

This general principle frequently holds true over extended investing cycles, but can waiver during shorter holding periods.

Case Model

For example, a fairly typical physician client of mine who has a 50% stock, 50% bond portfolio has obtained a return of 4.62% over the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 has obtained a return of 14.31% over the same time period (as of 10/30/14).

An investor expecting to obtain half the return of the index would anticipate a return of 7.15%, and by this measuring stick, has underperformed the market by over 2.50% during the last year.

What caused this differential?

Answer

The issue resides in how we define “the market.” In this example, we use the S&P 500 index as a measure for how the market as a whole is performing. As you may know, the S&P 500 (and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for that matter) consists solely of large company U.S. stocks.

Of course, a diversified portfolio owns a mixture of large, mid, and small cap U.S. stocks, as well as international and emerging market equities. Consequently, comparing the performance of a basket of only large cap stocks to the performance of a diversified portfolio made up of a variety of different asset classes isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison.

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Stock_Market

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Frequently, the diversified portfolio will outperform the non-diversified large cap index because several of the components of the diversified portfolio will obtain higher returns than those achieved by large cap holdings.

However, the past 12 months has been a case where a diversified portfolio underperformed the large cap index because large cap stocks were the best performing asset class over the time period. In fact, over the last twelve months, there has been a direct correlation between company size and stock performance (as of 10/30/14):

  • Large Cap Stocks (S&P 500): 14.92%
  • Mid Cap Stocks (Russell Mid Cap): 11.08%
  • Small Cap Stocks (Russell 2000): 4.45%
  • International Stocks (Dow Jones Developed Markets): -1.05%
  • Emerging Market Stocks (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets): -1.04%

Since large cap stocks were the best performing element of a diversified portfolio over the last 12 months, in retrospect, an investor would have obtained a superior return by owning only large cap stocks during the period as opposed to owning a diversified mix of different equities. Does this mean owning only large cap stocks rather than a diversified portfolio is the best investment approach going forward? Of course not.

Year after year, we don’t know which asset category will provide the best return and a diversified portfolio ensures we have exposure to each year’s big winner. Additionally, although large caps were this year’s winner, they could easily be next year’s big loser, and a diversified portfolio ensures we don’t have all our investment eggs in one basket.

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Assessment

Don’t be overly concerned if your diversified portfolio is underperforming a non-diversified benchmark over a short period of time. As always, long-term results should be more heavily weighted than short-term swings, and having a diversified portfolio is likely to maximize the probability of coming out ahead over an extended period.

Conclusion

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Why I Hate Non-Publicly Traded REITS

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

On Product Frustration

Lon JefferiesBy Lon Jefferies MBA CFP® CMP®

As my experience in the financial planning and investment advisory industries has grown over the years, there is one investment that I’ve seen no logical reason to own — non-publicly traded real estate investment trusts.

Josh Brown, one of my favorite analysts and author of TheReformedBroker.com nailed each of my frustrations with these products. Here is a significant excerpt from his post:

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I consider non-traded REITs or nREITS to be part of the group of investments that are just absolute murderholes for clients – they pay the brokers so much that they cannot possibly work out (and they rarely do without all kinds of aggravation and additional costs). Further, I have yet to hear a single credible explanation as to why a broker would recommend a non-traded REIT over a public REIT other than compensation. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that 7% is a lot more than the 1% commission you get doing an agency trade on a NYSE-traded REIT. A reader with experience in the industry sent this to me and I found it hilarious. Below, a fictional, transparent conversation between an indie broker and his “client” that would never occur…

If Brokers Were Transparent:

Rep:

Before we wrap up our quarterly portfolio review I would like to talk to you about a new investment I think you might be interested in.  You have been looking for more income and this is an investment vehicle that pays a 7% dividend.

Client:

Sounds great, give me the details.

Rep:

With your portfolio size and risk tolerance I would recommend a $100,000 investment.  Given that amount let’s first go over the fees. If you invest $100,000 I will be paid a commission of $7,000. My firm is going to get $1,500 – $2,000 in revenue share. My wholesaler, the salesman that works for the investment’s sponsor company, will get $1,000. He is a great guy, buys me dinner and takes me golfing. The sponsor company is going to get around $3,000 to pay for some of the costs they incurred in setting up the investment. So after Day 1 there will be around $87,000 left over to actually invest.  I bet you are getting excited.

Client:

Are you on drugs? Why would I pay 13% in fees on anything?

Rep:

Don’t worry, it won’t feel like you are paying $13,000 in fees. The rules allow my firm to report your investment at $100,000 on your statement. You never really know what its worth but you will think you never lost money. Pretty sweet huh?

Client:

You have to be kidding.

Rep:

No, this is a really good investment. Let me tell you about the income component before you jump to any conclusions. Like I said this investment pays a 7% dividend and the dividend won’t change.

Client:

That sounds high and how do you know it won’t change?

Rep:

You see, the sponsor just picks the 7% dividend number out of thin air. Here’s how it works. You see the vehicle you are going to invest in is new and it’s going to take the firm a while before your net $87,000 is actually invested. Later on, maybe 2-4 years from now they will have the money fully invested and it will generate actual cash flow. So they just pay a quarterly dividend of 7% by giving you your money back. This is great from a tax perspective because return of capital isn’t taxed as income.

Client:

Are we on hidden camera or something?

Rep:

Ha, you are funny. I bet this next benefit will change your mind.

Client:

I hope so or I should start looking for another financial advisor.

Rep:

This is the best feature. You can’t sell your investment until the sponsor has the opportunity to create liquidity. You might be locked up in this investment for 7-10 years.

Client:

This feels like the Twilight Zone. Your firm allows you to sell this crap?

Rep:

Oh yeah, our firm sells a ton of it. In fact independent broker dealer firms like mine sold over $20 billion of these investments in 2013. Think about that. Reps like me made over $140 million dollars and our firms pocketed $20-$30 million.

Client:

This is crazy, what is this investment?

Rep:

Non-traded REITs. $100,000 sound about right?

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Currency

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Josh touched on every part of these investments that I despise — excessive commission paid to the so-called “financial advisor” (salesman), a supposed “dividend” that is really just paying the investor his own money back (essentially providing an interest-free loan), and a complete lack of liquidity and transparency.

When I begin working with a new client who owns one of these products, it is impossible to obtain accurate, current information on the investment (not even a true value is apparent). Even worse, if the client wants to sell the investment he would need to do so at pennies on the dollar. For the most part, once an investor purchases one of these products he just needs to forget about it and hope that one day he can get his money back.

Assessment

The bottom line is that if your advisor ever recommends a non-publicly traded REIT, I’d strongly recommend you walk out the door and start searching for a true financial advisor with a fiduciary responsibility to act in your best interest.

Conclusion

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On non-traded real estate investment trusts (REITS)

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Private real estate investment trusts (REITS)

By Rick Kahler CFP®

In February 2016, I published an article that was not kind to non-traded or private real estate investment trusts (REITS). Unlike the traded variety that can be sold immediately on a public exchange, non-traded REITS have no public market if you want to liquidate the shares, making them much more illiquid. I contended that even though non-traded REITS had some theoretical benefits, the high fees and commissions, illiquidity, lack of transparency, and lack of a track record associated with them negate any advantage. My longstanding recommendation has been to stay with traded public REITS for your portfolio.

That article was picked up by Barron’s, where it was read by Tom Lonergan of JLL Income Property Trust. He agreed with me that most non-traded REITS did have all the negatives I listed, but pointed out that others did not. While I was skeptical, I decided to investigate further.

A Sleuth

My investigation over the past year did turn up a handful of non-traded REITS that don’t pay a commission, have reasonable fees, have limited liquidity, offer transparency, and do have an existing portfolio of properties that offers an easily discernable track record. This article is my acknowledgement that not all non-traded REITS are equal.

First, why should you even care if real estate is in your portfolio? The biggest reason is that it’s the third largest asset class, behind bonds and stocks. Of all that real estate, about 7% is owned by public REITS. The remaining 93% is owned by publicly traded corporations, private partnerships and REITS, and individuals.

One of the strongest arguments for including a non-traded REIT in your portfolio is that it acts much more like directly owning real estate than a traded REIT. The big difference between non-traded and traded REITS is volatility. Traded REITS are more volatile than stocks. Traded REITS have a potential annual volatility (referred to as standard deviation) of 22%, while the stocks of large companies are 16%. A non-traded REIT has a volatility of around 2%, which is almost that of bonds at 3%.

Why the huge difference in non-traded and traded REITS when they are the same asset class? The answer is liquidity. With traded REITS, liquidity is both a major strength and an Achilles heel. Traded REITS are subject to public sentiment, just like stocks. Their price is driven by behavior. Since they are liquid and can be bought and sold in a nanosecond, their price can swing wildly. In this regard, traded REITS act more like a stock investment than a real estate investment.

Non-traded REITS, just like rental houses or office buildings owned directly by an investor, can’t be traded or liquidated quickly. The price of a non-traded REIT is set by the value of the properties that are owned, not public sentiment. That is why the share value of traded REITS dropped around 75% in 2009, while non-traded REITS dropped around 25%. The properties owned by the traded REITS didn’t decrease any more than the non-traded REITS, but the wholesale panic in the public exchanges dropped their share value three times more than the decline in the actual value of the real estate.

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Assessment

As with many things in life, when it comes to real estate we can’t have our cake and eat it too. One factor that makes real estate such a stable investment is that it is inherently illiquid. You can’t have both liquidity and low volatility. But you can have a non-traded REIT that has limited liquidity, a track record, with reasonable fees and no commission. However, you do have to look hard to find them.

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Aetna Ratings Down as Stock Markets Flatten

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Aetna, CVS’s health insurance arm and the third largest payer in the US, is struggling amid higher medical costs and lower Medicare Advantage star ratings. After CVS reported a nearly 40% YoY drop in operating income in its Q2 2024 earnings released on August 7th, President and CEO Karen Lynch announced the company will replace Aetna’s president, Brian Kane, and initiate a $2 billion cost-savings plan.

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What’s up

  • Nvidia jumped 4.08% after it was named a top “rebound” stock by Bank of America.
  • Keycorp leaped 9.24% on the news that the Bank of Nova Scotia will invest $2.8 billion in the company.
  • Robinhood Markets rose 3.46% due to an upgrade from Piper Sandler analysts who say the company’s sudden decline gives it an attractive entry point.
  • Monday.com popped 14.78% thanks to a strong earnings report from the software maker, due in no small part to sealing the largest deal in company history.
  • Barrick Gold soared 9.36% after beating earnings estimates on both the top and bottom lines thanks to the rising price of gold.

What’s down

Here’s where the major stock benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500®  index (SPX)added 0.23(0.00%) to 5,344.39; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 140.53 points (–0.36%) to 39,357.01; the NASDAQ Composite rose 35.30points (0.21%) to 16,780.61.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell three basis points to just under 3.91%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) increased 0.34 points (1.67%) to 20.71.

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Stat: 8.2%. That’s the percentage of people in the US without health insurance in the first quarter of 2024. (Healthcare Dive)

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