JANUARY BAROMETER: Entire Year Stock Market Investment Performance?

Posted on February 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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According to Rob Lenihan, of TheStreet, the January Barometer is a theory that says the investment performance of the S&P 500 in January is representative of the predicted performance of the entire year. The theory says that if stocks are higher in January, they should be higher for the year, and if they are lower in the first month, they’ll be lower for the year.

The S&P 500 finished down on January 31st, but the broad market ended up 2.6% for the month, so maybe we should heed the words of Wall Street legend Yale Hirsch, who first came up with the concept in 1972 in his Stock Trader’s Almanac, a widely read investment guide. Hirsch, by the way, also gave the world the Santa Claus Rally, which describes a rise in stock prices during the last five trading days in December and the first two trading days in the following January.

Analyst Stephen Guilfoyle said early this month in a post for TheStreet Pro that Santa Claus posted a loss this year, which was Santa’s second consecutive year in the red. 

“No sweat,” the veteran trader said in his January 9th TheStreet Pro column. “That’s just a seasonal trade, and 2024 was a very nice year for U.S. equities in a broad sense.”

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DAILY UPDATE: Covid-19 Update as Stock Markets Fall Again and US Treasury Hacked

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Stat: 4 in 10. That’s about how many US nursing home residents got an updated Covid-19 vaccine in the winter of 2023–24, according to the CDC, despite the recommendation that adults 65 and older get the new shot. (KFF)

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Stocks fell on Monday, with the woes of the three major indexes continuing in the final week of the year as an otherwise strong 2024 comes to a close.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped more than 1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.8%.

Stocks moved lower as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) retreated from a seven-month high to hover near 4.55%. Stocks closed out last week with a Friday slide from Big Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the NASDAQ Composite falling 1.5% and the S&P 500 down over 1%.

The highly anticipated “Santa Claus” rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500, has flopped thus far. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning December 24th, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. In the current period, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1%.

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Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department’s computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what Treasury called a “major incident,” according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday.

The hackers compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider BeyondTrust and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said.

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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO: More on Year End Mutual Fund “Window Dressing”

Posted on December 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Steve Selengut

December values may not be what they seem

NOTE: Mr. Selengut is a private investor and a contributing editor to LIFE & Health Advisor. He is the author of the book ‘The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The book that Wall Street does not want you to read.’

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As [physician] investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of year-end Stock Market activity. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don’t appreciate the non-economic, non-business-model, factors contributing to the market value numbers in fourth quarter brokerage account summaries.

Year end market values may not be what they seem ….

“Portfolio Window Dressing” (PWD) produces security pricing that is more a function of next year’s institutional marketing programs than a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close…

Toward the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media report that “institutional PWD activities” are in full swing. But that is as deep as the stories ever go. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?

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READ MORE: https://www.lifehealth.com/year-end-portfolio-window-dressing/

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What is Mutual Fund WINDOW DRESSING?

Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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To most people the holiday season means decorations at home and at work, but it also can mean “window dressing” in your mutual fund.

This somewhat disparaging term is used to describe the practice of a mutual fund making cosmetic changes to its portfolio just before the end of each calendar quarter. It’s done because funds publish their exact holdings of securities four times a year based on what they own at the end of each quarter.

“The basic concept is that managers are either hiding their mistakes or adding winners to make themselves look a little smarter,” says Russ Kinnel, director of manager research at fund researcher Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “Of course, it doesn’t necessarily help performance,” he adds.

Santa Rally: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/16/what-is-the-santa-claus-stock-market-rally/

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What is the SANTA CLAUS Stock Market Rally?

Posted on December 24, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

LATE DECEMBER – EARLY JANUARY RISE

By Staff Reporters

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RALLY: A rally is a period of sustained increases in the prices of stocks, bonds or indices … An increase in prices during a primary trend bear market is called a bear market rally. A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%.

Now, a Santa Claus Rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the causes of a Santa Claus rally including tax considerations, a general feeling of optimism and happiness on Wall Street, and the investing of holiday bonuses.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Another theory is that some very large institutional investors, a number of which are more sophisticated and pessimistic, tend to go on vacation at this time, leaving the market to retail investors, who tend to be more bullish.

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“Pity” the Poor Billionaires in 2022

Posted on December 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

NO SANTA CLAUSE RALLY THIS YEAR!

By Staff Reporters

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s net worth has shrunk by an astounding $140 billion, slashing his wealth to $130 billion as of 2022, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The sharp decline reflects the roughly 70% drop in Tesla stock this year, driven by investors swapping technology stocks for safer assets, worrying that running Twitter is a costly distraction for Musk, and fearing a US economic downturn and overseas headwinds will hit the automaker’s growth.

Meanwhile, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ wealth has fallen by $86 billion, while Alphabet cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have seen their fortunes shrink by a combined $91 billion. Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates’ net worth has also tumbled by $29 billion, while former CEO Steve Ballmer has taken a $21 billion hit.

Similarly, Oracle cofounder and Tesla investor Larry Ellison has suffered a $17 billion blow to his fortune, while Warren Buffett’s wealth has only dropped by $3 billion. The eight Americans, along with LVMH’s Bernard Arnault, Adani Group’s Gautam Adani, and Reliance Industries’ Mukesh Ambani, hold the top 11 spots in Bloomberg’s global wealth rankings.

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