Three Fundamental Criteria All Physicians Should Consider before Investing

Posted on October 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Re-Appreciating the Basic Three Rs …

By Guy P. Jones CFP® www.guypjones.com

Guy P. Jones

Physician-investors are often confronted with a myriad of decisions concerning any potential investment not the least of which is:

“When or how should I change my investment strategy?”

Given the choice of investment options, there are three criteria by which any investment you make should be evaluated: Risk, Reward and Liquidity.

  • Risk, in a financial context, is defined as: The probability that the actual return on an investment will be lower than the expected return.  For our purposes and for most people, it equates to whether there is the potential to lose money on an investment and how much of a risk you are willing to take in order to achieve an acceptable return.

One measurement of the risk or volatility of market-based investments can be quantified by the beta of an investment.  Beta is a measurement of volatility of an investment and is measured against how volatile an investment is relative to the market.  The beta of the market is always 1.00, so any investment that has a beta of less than 1.00 is less volatile and conversely, one with a beta greater than 1.00 is more volatile.   The desired result is low beta (low volatility) investments that have higher returns vs. the market.  Each of our institutional-class money managers utilize investments that collectively have a beta that is lower than the market while generating results that avoided the steep losses of the stock market in 2000-02 and 2008.*

  • Reward, in a financial context, is the positive return on your investment.  The rule of thumb is that the reward – or return on investment – is directly proportional to the amount of risk that one is willing to assume- i.e. – the higher the risk, the higherreturn on investment.

In addition, traditional thinking says in order to reap stock market-like returns, you have to invest in the stock market.  In our managed portfolios, that is not necessarily the case.  Two of our investment managers, who do not invest in the stock market, have generated average returns over the past 7 and 10 years that are equal to or better than returns of the stock market over similar timeframes with 76-84% less risk as measured by the beta of each manager*

  • Liquidity, in a financial context, means how quickly you can get your hands on your cash or is the ability to get your money whenever you need it.  One of the first things I advise anyone to have is a liquid emergency fund of readily available cash.  By having available cash, you don’t have to convert another asset to cash and create a transaction that could result in potentially adverse tax consequences or worse, trigger losses.  I often see clients sacrifice higher returns that they could be earning on idle cash because of their perceived need for absolute liquidity of their money.  But what if there was a way to have both?  Wouldn’t you want higher returns in low risk, low-volatility assets as well as the ability to get at those assets quickly?

With our multi-manager investment platform, investors have the ability to have a portion of their assets held in a safe, liquid money market account while also having their remaining assets diversified in a variety of low risk, low-volatility investments.

financial risk

More:

Assessment

*Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future performance

Conclusion

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#5: The Six Commandments of Value Investing

Posted on March 11, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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5. Risk is a permanent loss of capital (not volatility)

Conventional wisdom views volatility as risk. Not value investors. We befriend volatility, embrace it, and try to take advantage of it. For someone who has not researched a company, it is not readily apparent whether a decline in shares is temporary or permanent. After all, if you don’t know what the company is worth, the quoted price becomes the quotient of intrinsic value. If you do know what the company is worth, then the change in intrinsic value is all that is going to matter. The price quoted on the exchange will be your friend, allowing you to take advantage of the difference between intrinsic value and quoted stock price. If the quoted stock price is significantly cheaper than your estimated intrinsic value, you buy it (or buy more of it if you already own it). If the opposite is true, you sell it.

What is a company worth?

Determining the intrinsic value requires a combination of art and science, in that order – it is not quoted on the exchanges. We go about this the same way a businessman would figure how much he’d want to pay for a gas station or a McDonald’s franchise. Analysis of each company will be different, but at the core we estimate the cash flows the business will produce for shareholders in the long run (at least ten years) and what the business will be worth then (based on our estimate of its earnings power at the time). The combination of the two provides us an approximation of what the business is worth now. To further embed “the right” type of risk analysis into our investment operating system, we build financial models. Models help us to understand businesses better and provide insights as to which metrics matter and which don’t. They allow us to stress test the business: We don’t just look at the upside but spend a lot of times looking at the downside – we try to “kill” the business. We look at known risks and try to imagine unknown ones; we try to quantify their impact on cash flows. This “killing” helps to us understand how much of a discount (margin of safety) we should demand to what the business is worth. By applying this discount to fair value, we arrive at a buy price. For every stock we buy we probably look at a few dozen (at least).

For instance, if we are looking at a company that is selling products or services to consumers, we’ll be focusing on customer-acquisition costs. We try to drill down to the essential operating metrics of each company. If it’s a convenience store retailer, we’ll look into gallons of gas sold and profit per gallon. If it’s an oil driller, we’ll look at utilization rates, rigs in service, average revenue per rig per day. If it’s a pharmaceuticals company, we’ll have revenue lines for each major drug it sells and model the company for the eventuality that patents will run out. (Revenues usually decline 80-90% when a patent expires).

These models help us to understand the economics of the business. We usually build two type of models. We start with what we call the “tablecloth” model. This is a very detailed, in-depth model that zeros in on different aspects of the business. But the risk we run with a tablecloth model is that we get lost in the trees and forget about the forest.

This brings us to our “napkin” model. It’s a much simpler and smaller model that focuses only on the essentials of the business. It is easier to build the tablecloth model than the “napkin.” If we can build a napkin model, that means we understand the drivers of the business – we understand what matters. Models are important because they help us remain rational. It is only the matter of time before a stock we own will “blow up” (or, in layman’s terms, decline).

In this type of analysis, what happens this month, this quarter, or even this year is only important in the context of the long run – unless the company’s good or bad earnings report in any quarter changes our assumptions on the company’s long-term cash flows. If you methodically focus on what the company is worth and if your Total IQ is maximized, then price fluctuations are just noise. Volatility becomes your friend because you can rationally take advantage of it. It’s an under-appreciated gift from Mr. Market.

Side Note: As an advisor, I feel it is one of my great responsibilities to be an honest and clear communicator. There is an asymmetry of information between us and our clients. We have invested weeks and months of research into the analysis of each stock; therefore, we have a good idea what each company is worth. Our clients have not done this research, and they should not have to – that is what they hired us to do.This is why we pour our heart and soul into our quarterly letters – we want to close this informational gap and so we try as hard as we can to explain what we think the companies in our portfolio are worth. Our letters are often 15-20 pages long. 

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On Investing Risk Tolerance

Posted on October 24, 2017 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Determining Risk Tolerance

By Rick Kahler CFP®

If you are new to investing, or if you aren’t sure how much risk you are taking in your current portfolio, it may be helpful to spend a little time to determine your risk tolerance.

A good place to start is by taking a few risk tolerance surveys. A variety of free assessments are available online; three examples are at Vanguard, Schwab, and Morningstar.

Examples:

I like surveys that express your risk in terms of downside volatility, or how much loss you could tolerate. Most will express the downside in terms of how far your portfolio would have to go down over a 12-month period before you would jump out.

Unless you only look at your portfolio once a year (which I highly recommend), you most likely won’t tend to think of a decline in your investments as being over a 12-month period. Because we all “anchor” on the highest value, it’s more typical to compare a portfolio’s peak value to its lowest point. You may want to ask yourself how far would the markets need to drop from their highs before you would want to get out “before it’s all gone.” It’s important to understand that the peak to trough drop will usually be much higher than the annual drop. For example, in 2008-2009 the peak to bottom drop in some portfolios was 40% when the 12-month drop was closer to 20%.

What is the right number for you?

So, as the Sleep Number bed commercials ask, what is the right number for you?

If your 12-month tolerance is a 15% drop, you will need to be in a very conservative portfolio, perhaps something like an allocation of 25% in equities and 75% in fixed income investments like bonds. If your tolerance is 25%, a 50/50 allocation may fit. For a tolerance of 35%, maybe a 75/25 allocation will be comfortable.

Don’t take these numbers as gospel. There are many, many variables that will determine what is right for you. I use these simply to give you a context that the less of a drop you can stomach in your portfolio before selling out, the lower your allocation needs to be to equities and the higher your allocation needs to be to fixed income.

If your answer to the question of how much risk you are taking in your investment portfolio is, “I have no clue,” now is the perfect time to get a clue. Why? We are in the ninth year of a bull market in stocks, the third longest in history. Also, 22 out of 23 of the last bear markets bottomed in the first two years of the Presidential cycle.

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If you find yourself taking too much risk in your portfolio, lighten up on equities and increase your allocation to bonds. Lightening up doesn’t mean selling out of equities. It may mean shifting a 70/30 allocation to a 60/40 or a 50/50. Maybe it means adding some asset classes or investment strategies that do well when stocks drop. Sometimes a slight tweak can do a great deal to keep you in the market when the economy looks to be in a death spiral.

The time to do that tweaking is before the stock market crashes (goes into a bear market), not after. As the six months from September 2008 to February 2009 reminded us, bear markets develop very quickly.

Assessment

The important thing is to take action today to become aware of the risk that is in your portfolio and assess whether you need to make a change.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, urls and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

 

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