FOMC: Interest Rate Cut Today?

At 2 pm EST Today

By Staff Reporters

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ABOUT THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE

The term “monetary policy” refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy–open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

Cite: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

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And so, the macroeconomic FOMC is kicking off at 2pm ET today, when the Fed will announce the first interest rate cut in over four years. But, financial watchers are split between two predictions: a standard 0.25% cut or a more aggressive one of 0.5% (investors are betting on the latter, while many analysts think the former).

Regardless of its size, today’s rate cut and subsequent ones are expected to make borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, with ripple effects throughout the economy.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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FOMC: Interest Rates Up?

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION:

According to Wikipedia, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a committee within the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), is charged under United States law with overseeing the nation’s open market operations (e.g., the Fed’s buying and selling of United States Treasury securities). This Federal Reserve committee makes key decisions about interest rates and the growth of the United States money supply. Under the terms of the original Federal Reserve Act, each of the Federal Reserve banks was authorized to buy and sell in the open market bonds and short term obligations of the United States Government, bank acceptances, cable transfers, and bills of exchange. Hence, the reserve banks were at times bidding against each other in the open market. In 1922, an informal committee was established to execute purchases and sales. The Banking Act of 1933 formed an official FOMC.

The FOMC is the principal organ of United States national monetary policy. The Committee sets monetary policy by specifying the short-term objective for the Fed’s open market operations, which is usually a target level for the federal funds rate (the rate that commercial banks charge between themselves for overnight loans).

The FOMC also directs operations undertaken by the Federal Reserve System in foreign exchange markets, although any intervention in foreign exchange markets is coordinated with the U.S. Treasury, which has responsibility for formulating U.S. policies regarding the exchange value of the dollar.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce today whether it will impose another interest rate hike, the central bank’s latest move in a months long fight that has eased inflation but risks plunging the U.S. into a recession.

The Fed [FOMC] has put forward a string of borrowing cost increases as it tries to slash price hikes by slowing the economy and choking off demand. The approach, however, risks tipping the U.S. economy into a downturn and putting millions out of work.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

And so, at a meeting in December 2022, the Fed raised its short-term borrowing rate a half-percentage point, pulling back from three consecutive 0.75% increases and signaling confidence that sky-high inflation could be brought down to normal levels.

Economists expect the Fed to continue softening its approach with a 0.25% rate hike today? The decision comes weeks after a government report showed that inflation slowed in December, marking six consecutive months of easing price increases.

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How the FOMC Really Works?

How the Federal Reserve Works

By Jason Dyken MD MBA

Tip: Checks. Due to the onslaught of electronic check collection, the Federal Reserve now processes paper checks at just one location nationwide, down from 45 locations in 2003.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2016

QUESTION

Have you ever taken a close look at paper money? Each U.S. bill has the words “Federal Reserve Note” imprinted across the top.

But many individuals may not know why the bill is issued by the Federal Reserve and what role the Federal Reserve plays in the economy.

How the FOMC Really works?

Here’s an inside look

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the country’s central bank. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Prior to its creation, the U.S. economy was plagued by frequent episodes of panic, bank failures, and limited credit.

The Fed has four main roles in the U.S. economy.

Economy Watch

In addition to its other duties, the Fed has been given three mandates with the economy: maintain maximum employment, maintain stable price levels, and maintain moderate long-term interest rates.

Fast Fact: Unwieldy Patchwork. In the early 1800s, the U.S. had no central bank and no common currency. The monetary system ran through a patchwork of state-chartered banks with no federal regulation. By 1860, there were nearly 8,000 of these banks, each issuing its own banknotes.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2018

It’s important to remember that “the Fed” cannot directly control employment, inflation, or long-term interest rates. Rather, it uses a number of tools at its disposal to influence the availability and cost of money and credit. This, in turn, influences the willingness of consumers and businesses to spend money on goods and services.

For example, if the Fed maneuvers short-term interest rates lower, borrowing money becomes less expensive and people may be motivated to spend. Consumer spending may stimulate economic growth, which may cause companies to produce more product and potentially increase employment. When short-term rates are low, the Fed closely monitors economic activity to watch for signs of rising prices.

On the other hand, if the Fed pushes short-term rates higher, borrowing money becomes more expensive and people may be less motivated to spend. This may, in turn, slow economic growth and cause companies to decrease employment. When short-term rates are high, the Fed must watch for signs of a decline in overall price levels.

Supervise and Regulate

The Fed establishes and enforces the regulations banks, savings and loans, and credit unions must follow. It works with other federal and state agencies to ensure these financial institutions are financially sound and consumers are receiving fair and equitable treatment. When an organization is found to have problems, the Fed uses its authority to have the organization correct the problems.

Financial System

The Fed maintains the stability of the financial system by providing payment services. In times of financial strain, the Fed is authorized to step in as a lender of last resort, providing liquidity to an individual bank or the entire banking system.

For example, the Fed may step in and offer to buy the government bonds owned by a particular bank. By so doing, the Fed provides the bank with money that it can use for its own purposes.

Banker for Banks, U.S. Government

The Fed provides financial services to banks and other depository institutions and to the U.S. government. For banks, savings and loans, and credit unions, it maintains accounts and provides various payment services, including collecting checks, electronically transferring funds, distributing new money, and receiving and destroying old, worn-out money. For the federal government, the Fed pays Treasury checks; processes electronic payments; and issues, transfers, and redeems U.S. government securities.

Each day, the Fed is behind the scenes supporting the economy and providing services to the U.S. financial system. And while the Fed’s duties are many and varied, its focus is to maintain confidence in banking institutions.

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A De-Centralized Central Bank System

The Federal Reserve System consists of 12 independent banks that operate under the supervision of a federally appointed Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each of these banks works within a specific district, as shown.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2018

  • U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing, 2018
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2018
  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2016

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Are Interest Rates expected to increase in December?

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And, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said …

Art

By Arthur Chalekian GEPC
[Financial Consultant]

U.S. job growth surpassed expectations in October. About 271,000 jobs were created across diverse industries: professional and business services, health care, retail, construction, and others. That was a significantly higher number than predicted by economists who participated in a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal. They expected to see 183,000 new jobs for October.

BLS revised

The BLS revised August and September jobs numbers higher overall and reported improvement on the wage front, too. Average hourly earnings increased by nine cents during October. For the year, hourly earnings are up 2.5 percent. Rising wages and a 5 percent unemployment rate “appear to indicate the labor market has reached full employment,” reported Barron’s.

Strong employment data supports the idea the Fed will begin to lift the Fed funds rate this year. On Friday, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke wrote in his blog:

“Wednesday was something of a trifecta for Fed watchers: Chair Yellen, Board Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York president Bill Dudley (who is also the vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee) all made public appearances. Moreover, the comments by all three members of the Fed’s leadership explicitly or implicitly supported the idea that a December rate increase by the FOMC is a distinct possibility. (The possibility of a rate increase is even more distinct with this morning’s strong job market report.)”

Markets responded swiftly, according to The Wall Street Journal, as investors repositioned their portfolios in anticipation of a rate hike. While stock market indices remained relatively steady, there was considerable volatility within certain sectors. An expert cited by the publication commented:

“…one of the big rotation trades on Friday was investors taking money out of companies such as utilities and real-estate-investment trusts, and putting it into those that are expected to benefit from higher rates, such as financial companies.”

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