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By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: For its official definition, the NBER considers a recession a “significant decline” in economic activity. Not only that—the decline must be deep, broad, and last for more than a few months. When deciding whether the economy is in a recession, the NBER looks to a variety of indicators (not just GDP) to understand the health of the economy, such as job growth, consumer spending, and industrial production. It’s not a simple or transparent formula.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Top economists don’t believe a downturn has begun but some predict a mild recession is likely by early next year. For example, residential investment plunged last quarter as the housing market slumped amid sharply rising mortgage rates while business stockpiling and investment also declined, more than offsetting a modest advance in consumer spending. Furthermore, the nation’s gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., shrank at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the April-June period, according to the Commerce Department. That followed a 1.6% drop early this year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.5% rise in GDP.

In fact, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said the US economy is seeing an economic slowdown — something vital to bringing down inflation — but isn’t currently in a recession. “We do see a significant slowdown in growth,” Yellen said at a press conference. But a true recession is a “broad-based weakening of the economy,” she said. “That is not what we’re seeing right now.” The country currently is seeing job creation, strong household finances, gains in consumer spending and growth in business, Yellen said. Employment climbed by 1.1 million jobs in the second quarter, a sharp contrast with the average loss of 240,000 in the first three months of past recessions. The Treasury chief was speaking hours after data showed the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, as higher interest rates slowed business investment and housing demand.

ON THE OTHER HAND: Yesterday was an amazing day for the stock market — especially for growth stocks. The Fed sparked a massive rally across all asset classes. It strongly implied it’ll slow the pace of rate hikes in the coming months. And it may even turn to rate cuts by the end of the year.

INVESTING: https://www.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-Advisors/dp/1482240289/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418580820&sr=8-1&keywords=david+marcinko

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