COLLEAGUE: Dr. Mike Burry Opines on the Markets

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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

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Big Short’ investor Michael Burry MD warns stocks will crash and rallies won’t last.

  • “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry expects a far steeper decline in the stock market.
  • The Scion Asset Management chief’s view is based on how past crashes have played out.
  • Burry warned brief rallies were likely, and joked about his penchant for premature predictions.

Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager of “The Big Short” fame, rang the alarm on the “greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things” last summer. He warned the retail investors piling into meme stocks and cryptocurrencies that they were careening towards the “mother of all crashes.”

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Mike also wrote a popular chapter in our financial planning textbook for physician investors. With our appreciation and gratitude.

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COMMENTS APPRECIATED

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The “Deeper Dive” Costs of College Debt

Unintended Consequences?

[By Rick Kahler MSFS CFP]  [Dr. David Marcinko MBA]

Not only is a college education a door to higher wages, but providing that education is an important segment of our economy and a huge source of good paying jobs.

In 2017 the average salary for the country’s 624,822 full-time college instructors was $82,240, according to an annual study from the Department of Education’s National Center of Education Statistics.

The old days

In the days before college loans were as easy to get as the common cold, college costs were due in cash. Students and parents had to save money or pay tuition out of their earnings. Many students worked their way through college. Those without savings, the ability or desire for college jobs, or high enough grades for scholarships didn’t go to college.

Since colleges competed for students, market forces controlled the tuition rates. Raising tuition too much resulted in fewer students and smaller revenues. The two forces of supply (college capacity) and demand (the ability to pay tuition) kept college costs in check.

Understandably, borrowing to pay for college tuition was difficult. What sane bank or investor would loan money to an unemployed teenager with no collateral to speak of? If you could find someone willing to make such a risky loan, the interest rate was high.

Politics

Well-intended politicians decided it wasn’t fair that those without the means to pay tuition were denied college educations. Their solution was to require taxpayers to underwrite college loans, sometimes at interest rates lower than those available to the most creditworthy.

With tuition money easy to obtain through low-cost, government backed loans, demand for a college education increased. With the increased demand came higher tuition costs. This easy money is the primary reason that college tuition costs have far outpaced inflation and have gone up twice as fast as medical costs since 1985.

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Consequences

Unfortunately, one consequence of loaning money to those deemed poor risks is that a high percentage of those borrowers are unable to repay the debt.  It should come as no surprise that 10.7% of all student loans are currently 90 days or more in default. Conversely, the composite default rate on mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans is 0.82% as of October 2018.

Today, taxpayers are on the hook for over 92% of the $1.5 trillion in outstanding student loans made to over 44 million borrowers, according to a June 13, 2018, Forbes article by Zack Friedman, “Student Loan Debt Statistics in 2018.” Only home mortgages exceed student loan debt.

And the appetite for loans continues to rise. The average student from the Class of 2016 graduated with over $37,000 of college debt. It isn’t uncommon for a medical student to amass over $200,000 of student loan debt. This year we will add another $120 billion in college debt to the books.

The more college debt that graduates take into the workplace, the less they have to spend for vehicles, rent, and consumer goods. The damage to the credit ratings of the 10.7% who are in default will also hinder their purchasing power for years to come.

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Assessment

If taxpayers ever decide to quit footing the bill, my hunch is that many colleges’ tuition rates will fall as hard as housing prices did in Florida, Arizona, and California in 2009. Lower tuition costs would create a financial hardship for most colleges and the some 4,000,000 people employed in higher education.

Politically, I don’t expect that to happen. Colleges are big business with a lot of money and influence in Congress. Further, a college education is becoming viewed as a right that should be free. In the meantime, savvy students will do whatever they can to minimize their college tuition and graduate debt-free.

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Coaching

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

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Product Details

 

UPDATE: The EEOC, Yen, Wells Fargo & Tesla

By Staff Reporters

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The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) Civil Rights Division each put employers on notice: When using AI in employment processes, employers are responsible for inspecting tools for disability bias, and they better have a plan to provide reasonable accommodations, because federal agencies say they have their eyes on how using artificial intelligence could lead to discrimination under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).

The Yen has the potential to drop to levels last seen in 1990 on Japan’s deepening monetary policy divergence with the US. And, selling the yen has become a favorite macro trade this year as rising Treasury yields spur investors to ditch Japan’s currency for the higher-yielding greenback. The Bank Of Japan has vowed to maintain its easing bias even in the face of the currency’s losses, making it unlikely that the declines will reverse anytime soon.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK-B) bought $3 billion worth of shares in Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) in Q1, giving the group a stake of about 2.8%, according to filings with regulators. The investment came as Berkshire sold the remainder of its position in Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC), a rival bank that had been a staple in Buffett’s portfolio for more than three decades, Financial Times reported.

Finally, Tesla shares continued their fall, dropping ~35% since the announcement that Elon Musk was buying Twitter. That may imperil Musk’s ability to complete the deal, given that he’s taken out meaty loans tied to the value of Tesla’s stock.

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On Employee “Burnout”

Prevention is better than cure

[By TrainHR]

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https://trainhrtraining.wordpress.com/2020/01/06/dealing-with-difficult-people/

Assessment: Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated.

MORE: OSHA

Coaching

Conclusion: Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Product DetailsProduct Details

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FRUSTRATED Physicians!

By Staff Reporters

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65% of Physicians Report Feeling Frustrated in Past 3 Months

A recent study by Survey Healthcare Global on the mental health of healthcare professionals found:

 •  65% of physicians report feeling frustrated.
 •  54% of physicians report feeling burned out.
 •  52% of physicians report feeling unappreciated.
 •  Respondents rank constant stress (34%) and staff shortages (30%) as the leading factors for stress.
 •  18% report that they are more likely to drink, smoke, or use/abuse substances as a result.
 •  75% say their organizations do not offer any wellness resources and programs to HCP employees.

Source: Survey Healthcare Global Via Business Wire, March 21, 2022

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ORDER: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

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