ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Stock Market Features – Not Bugs

A.I. by Artificial Intelligence

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Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to computer systems capable of performing complex tasks that historically only humans could do, such as reasoning, making decisions, or solving problems. Today, the term “AI” describes a wide range of technologies that power many of the services and goods we use every day – from apps that recommend TV shows to chatbots that provide customer support in real time. And yet, there is a hierarchy among related concepts such as machine learning and deep learning.

So, to summarize the hierarchy:

  • AI is the goal: machines that can think and act intelligently.
  • Machine learning is a method within AI that lets machines learn from data.
  • Deep learning is a specialized form of machine learning that uses multi-layered neural networks to analyze data in a way that mimics the human brain.

It’s a feature, not a bug

And, there’s no shortage of companies leveraging AI today to remain profitable, to the delight of Salesforce investors: among others:

  • Wells Fargo’s CEO has touted trimming its workforce for 20 straight quarters. Its stock is up 228% over the past five years.
  • Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan wasn’t hiding it during a recent earnings call when he said the company has let go of 88,000 employees over the past 15 years. BofA stock is up 95% since 2020.
  • Amazon, with its share value up 28% over the past year, recently told staff that AI implementation would lead to layoffs.
  • Microsoft has cut 15,000 jobs in the past two months as the company pivots to AI—and its stock is also up since the beginning of July.

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Why Investors Don’t Want Common Stock Shares

By Pitching Angels

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TRADITIONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION MODEL: Routed by Larry Fink CEO of BlackRock?

BREAKING NEWS – MARKET VOLATILITY

By Staff Reporters

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US stocks nosedived on Thursday, with the Dow tumbling more than 1,200 points as President Trump’s surprisingly steep “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shock waves through markets worldwide. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 4%. The S&P 500 (GSPC) dove 3.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled roughly 3%. [ongoing story].

So, does the traditional 60 stock / 40 bond strategy still work or do we need another portfolio model?

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The 60/40 strategy evolved out of American economist Harry Markowitz’s groundbreaking 1950s work on modern portfolio theory, which holds that investors should diversify their holdings with a mix of high-risk, high-return assets and low-risk, low-return assets based on their individual circumstances.

While a portfolio with a mix of 40% bonds and 60% equities may bring lower returns than all-stock holdings, the diversification generally brings lower variance in the returns—meaning more reliability—as long as there isn’t a strong correlation between stock and bond returns (ideally the correlation is negative, with bond returns rising while stock returns fall).

CORRELATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/27/correlation-diversification-in-finance-and-investments/

For 60/40 to work, bonds must be less volatile than stocks and economic growth and inflation have to move up and down in tandem. Typically, the same economic growth that powers rallies in equities also pushes up inflation—and bond returns down. Conversely, in a recession stocks drop and inflation is low, pushing up bond prices.

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  • But, the traditional 60/40 portfolio may “no longer fully represent true diversification,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink writes in a new letter to investors.
  • Instead, the “future standard portfolio” may move toward 50/30/20 with stocks, bonds and private assets like real estate, infrastructure and private credit, Fink writes.
  • Here’s what experts say individual investors may want to consider before dabbling in private investments.

It may be time to rethink the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. In a new letter to investors, Fink writes the traditional allocation comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that dates back to the 1950s “may no longer fully represent true diversification.

DI-WORSIFICATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/04/09/what-is-financial-portfolio-di-worsification-2/

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SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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STOCK: Common V. Preferred V. Hybrid Securities

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Common Stock versus Preferred Stock

A common stock is the least senior of securities issued by a company.  A preferred stock, in contrast, is slightly more senior to common stock, since dividends owed to the preferred stockholders should be paid before distributions are made to common stockholders. 

However, distributions to preferred stockholders are limited to the level outlined in the preferred stock agreement (i.e., the stated dividend payments).  Like a fixed income security, preferred stocks have a specific periodic payment that is either a fixed dollar amount or an amount adjusted based upon short-term market interest rates.  However, unlike fixed income securities, preferred stocks typically do not have a specific maturity date and preferred stock dividend payments are made from the corporation’s after tax income rather than its pre-tax income.  Likewise, dividends paid to preferred stockholders are considered income distributions to the company’s equity owners rather than creditors, so the issuing corporation does not have the same requirement to make dividend distributions to preferred stockholders. 

Preferred Stock

Thus, preferred stock is generally referred to as a “hybrid” security, since it has elements similar to both fixed income securities (i.e., a stated periodic payments) and equity securities (i.e., shareholders are considered owners of the issuing company rather than creditors). 

Hybrid Securities

Convertible preferred stocks (and convertible corporate bonds) are also considered hybrid securities since they have both equity and fixed income characteristics.   A convertible security whether a preferred stock or a corporate bond, generally includes a provision that allow the security to be exchanged for a given number of common stock shares in the issuing corporation. The holder of a convertible security essentially owns both the preferred stock (or the corporate bond) and an option to exchange the preferred stock (or corporate bond) for shares of common stock in the company. 

Thus, at times the convertible security may behave more like the issuing company’s common stock than it does the issuing company’s preferred stock (or corporate bonds), depending upon how close the common stock’s market price is to the designated conversion price of the convertible security.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements:

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ICE and Bank of America [BoA] Indices

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The ICE 3-Month USD LIBOR interest rate is the average interest rate at which a selection of banks in London are prepared to lend to one another in American dollars with a maturity of 3 months.

The Bank of America US High Yield Constrained Index is a market value-weighted index of all domestic high-yield bonds and Yankee high-yield bonds (issued by a foreign entity and denominated in U.S. dollars), including deferred interest bonds and payment-in-kind securities.

The ICE BofA BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index is composed of U.S. dollar-denominated corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. market rated BB through B, based on an average of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch ratings, with issuer exposure capped at 2%.

ICE BofA U.S. Convertible Index tracks the performance of publicly issued, exchange-listed US dollar denominated convertible securities of US companies with at least $50 million face amount outstanding and at least one month remaining to the final conversion date. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted and rebalanced monthly.

ICE BofA ML MOVE Index is a widely used measure of bond market volatility, similar to the VIX Index for stocks. The MOVE Index (also known as the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) is a yield-curve-weighted index that tracks the market’s expectation of volatility in the U.S. bond market based on 1-month Treasury options.

ICE Exchange-Listed Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index tracks the performance of exchange-listed US dollar denominated hybrid debt, preferred stock and convertible preferred stock publicly issued by corporations in the US domestic market. Preferred stock and notes must have a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million; convertible preferred stock must have at least $50 million face amount outstanding. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted subject to certain constraints. The index is re-balanced monthly.

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What is Stock Brokerage Company “Payment For Order Flow”?

By Staff Reporters

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Payment for order flow, or PFOF, is a tactic some brokerages use to rake in piles of cash. Payment for order flow (PFOF) is a form of compensation, usually in terms of fractions of a penny per share, that a brokerage firm receives for directing orders for trade execution to a particular market maker or exchange. Payment for order flow is common in options markets, and is increasingly found in equity (stock market) transactions.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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How does it impact everyday investors?

The “P” in PFOF stands for “payment.” That’s because PFOF gets stock brokers paid. It starts when brokers direct trade orders to a particular e-trading firm (like Mountain Securities, for example) instead of routing the trades straight to exchanges. At that point, the e-trading firm may be able to collect the difference between the bid and the ask price, and the brokerages get a cut of that profit. It’s the proverbial “You scratch your broker’s back through their bespoke Ermenegildo Zegna suit, and they’ll scratch yours.”

According to Lillian Stone, some industry experts argue that PFOF is a conflict of interest. (The practice came under scrutiny last year when US brokers made billions on meme stock trading.) You want your broker to get you the best possible prices during a trade, right? Well, if your broker is incentivized to work with one specific e-trading firm, there’s a chance you may not get the sweetest deal—but they’ll line their pockets all the same.

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FRIDAY 13th: Triskaidekaphobia

By Staff Reporters

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Triskaidekaphobia, or fear of the number 13, does not fit neatly into a clinical definition of a specific phobia. The number 13 is not an object or a situation, and it can be impossible for the sufferer to avoid. Moreover, in order for a phobia to be diagnosed, it must significantly impact the sufferer’s life. Most people with triskaidekaphobia find that their fear only arises in certain situations, and does not significantly impair their lives. But could this phobia just be linked to superstition? 

Experts have long debated the scientific validity of triskaidekaphobia. Some feel that it should be classified as superstition or even taken as a sign of magic, which in conjunction with other symptoms, could point to a delusional disorder.

MORE: https://wordpress.com/post/medicalexecutivepost.com/400552

Fearfully, stocks dropped yesterday as fresh inflation data renewed fears that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The Consumer Price Index in September held steady at 3.7%—still a ways off from the Fed’s 2% target for inflation. News was better for Walgreens, whose shares jumped 7% after the pharmacy giant reported smaller losses and showed progress in its plan to cut costs.

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WEEKEND REVIEW: Stock Market Update and China COVID Policy

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: Stocks closed their otherwise terrible week on a high note following another solid jobs report for October. The US economy added 261,000 jobs last month, more than expected, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%. The Fed wants to see the labor market loosen up before it’s willing to slow down its rate hikes.
  • Stock spotlight: Carvana, the online used car retailer that surged during the pandemic, suffered its worst day ever and closed near its all-time low. Carvana’s plunge of more than 95% this year makes it a prime example of Covid darlings that were caught flat-footed when the macroeconomic environment deteriorated and pandemic trends (like huge demand for used cars) snapped back to normal.
  • DraftKings stock had its worst day on record, down nearly 28%, after revealing a longer-than-expected path to profitability.

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Is China going to loosen its Covid policies? Investors pounced on rumors this week that Beijing was thinking about relaxing its draconian Covid precautions, sending Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index to its best week in a decade. Separately, Reuters obtained a recording of a former Chinese disease control official telling a conference that China would be making big changes to its “dynamic-zero” Covid policy.

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#1: The Six Commandments of Value Investing

1. A stock is partial ownership of a business 

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By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson CFA

EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

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The Six Commandments of Value Investing
Introduction

I wrote the core of this chapter in preparation for a speech I gave at an investment conference. In my speech, I wanted to show how at my firm, we took the Six Commandments of Value Investing and embedded them in our investment operating system. 

Since I was speaking to fellow value investors, this speech was written not to promote my firm but to educate. I was going to rewrite the speech for this chapter and make a bit less about us and more about you –but each attempt resulted in a dull chapter. So here is a much extended version of my original speech. 

The Six Commandments

These are the Six Commandments of Value Investing. I don’t expect any value investors reading this to be surprised by any one of them. They were brought down from the mountain by Ben Graham in his book Security Analysis.

1)    A stock is fractional ownership of a business (not trading sardines).
2)    Long-term time horizon (both analytical and expectation to hold)
3)    Mr. Market is there to serve us (know who’s the boss).
4)    Margin of safety – leave room in your buy price for being wrong.
5)    Risk is permanent loss of capital (not volatility).
6)    In the long run stocks revert to their fair value.

These commandments are very important and they sound great, but in the chaos of our daily lives it is so easy for them to turn into empty slogans. 

A slogan without execution is a lie. For these “slogans” not to be lies, we need to deeply embed them in our investment operating system – our analytical framework and our daily routines – and act on them.

The focus of this chapter goes far beyond explaining what these commandments are: My goal is to give you a practical perspective and to show you how we embed the Six Commandments in our investment operating system at my firm. 

1. A stock is partial ownership of a business 

The US and most foreign markets we invest in are very liquid. We can sell any stock in our portfolios with ease – a few clicks and a few cents per share commission and it’s gone. This instant liquidity, though it can be tremendously beneficial (we wish selling a house were that easy, fast, and cheap), can also have harmful unintended consequences: It tends to shrink the investor’s analytical time horizon and often transforms investors into pseudo-investors. 

For true traders, stocks are not businesses but trading widgets. Pork bellies, orange futures, stocks are all the same to them. Traders try to find some kind of order or a pattern in the hourly and daily chaos (randomness) of financial markets. As an investor, I cannot relate to traders –not only do we not belong to the same religion, we live in very different universes. 
Over the years I’ve met many traders, and I count a few as my dear friends. None of them confuse what they do with investing. In fact, traders are very explicit that their rules of engagement with stocks are very different from those of investors. 

I have little insight to share with traders in these pages. My message is really to market participants who on the surface look at stocks as if they were investments but who have been morphed by the allure of the market’s instant liquidity into pseudo-investors. They are not quite traders – because they don’t use traders’ tools and are not trying to find order in the daily noise – but they aren’t investors, either, because their time horizon has been shrunk and their analysis deformed by market liquidity. 

The best way to contrast the investor with the pseudo-investor is by explaining what an investor is. A true investor would do the same analysis of a public company that he would do for a private one. He’d analyze the company’s business, guestimate earnings power and cash flows. Assess its moat – the ability to protect cash flows from competition. Try to look “around the corner” to various risks. Then figure out what the business is worth and decide what price he’d want to pay for it (your required discount to what the business is worth). For an investor, the analysis would be the same if his $100,000 was buying 20% of a private business or 0.002% of a public one. This is how your rational uncle would analyze a business – your Warren Buffett or Ben Graham. 

How do we maintain this rational attitude and prevent the stock market from turning us into pseudo-investors? Very simple. We start by asking, “Would we want to own this business if the stock market was closed for 10 years?” (Thank you, Warren Buffett). This simple question changes how we look at stocks. 

Now, the immediate liquidity that is so alluring in a stock, and that turns investors into pseudo-investors, is gone from our analysis. Suddenly, quality – valuation, cash flows, competitive advantage, return on capital, balance sheet, management – has a much different, more complete meaning.

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