HAPPY 2022: Story of the New Year = INFLATION

INFLATION – Did we say [Health Care] Inflation?

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Inflation Definition

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Why? Inflation, which is the rate of price increases over time, affects all of us on a personal level. We pay electric bills, go grocery shopping, decorate our houses, buy cars—and this year all of those things got more expensive. Especially health care.

Thanks to a nefarious mix of soaring demand for goods and snarled supply chains, US consumer prices jumped the most in 39 years in November, and the 6.8% inflation rate marked the sixth straight month inflation grew by 5% or more. Producer prices, which can eventually trickle down to individuals, also increased at their fastest pace on record last month.

Of course, some inflation is good for the economy when wages keep up with rising prices (the Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate over time). But, so far in the pandemic, that hasn’t happened. While many Americans have gotten a raise in 2021, wage gains haven’t been sufficient to offset inflation, resulting in the erosion of purchasing power—especially for folks on a more or less fixed income.

Where do we go from here?

After months of claiming inflation was “transitory,” the Fed has dropped that term and adopted a more hawkish monetary policy to tamp down surging prices. The central bank is winding down its bond-buying stimulus program faster than originally planned, and also plans to hike interest rates three times in 2022.

In its inflation-fighting efforts, the Fed isn’t alone on the front lines. The Bank of England became the first major central bank to raise interest rates during the pandemic in order to combat the biggest annual jump in consumer prices in 10 years. Russia has raised rates seven times this year. Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica, Pakistan, and Hungary are among other countries which are tightening monetary policy to combat higher prices.

Looking ahead…as if economic policymakers needed another inflation curveball, Omicron has taken the mound. Central banks generally don’t expect the new variant to significantly dent economic growth, but they do think it may prolong inflation by exacerbating the supply–demand imbalance that fueled higher prices in the first place.

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RICARDIAN DEMAND HEALTH ECONOMICS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/14/ricardian-derived-demand-economics-in-medicine/

RISING HEALTH CARE COSTS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2018/03/11/medical-treatment-costs-becoming-expensive-25-factors/

Elderly CPI: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2019/06/13/what-is-the-elderly-cpi/

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HEALTH ECONOMICS CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

COMMENTS APPRECIATED.

Thank You

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Inflation is Higher Than You Think

Consumer Price Index

By Forbes Wealth

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cpi

Inflation is Higher Than You Think

Macro-Economics and What the ‘Chained CPI’ Could Mean for Social Security?

MORE: https://forbeswealthblog.ca/2019/01/11/how-high-can-interest-rates-go-2019/

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Macro-Economics and What the ‘Chained CPI’ Could Mean for Social Security?

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Definition of Chain-Weighted CPI

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

Dr David E Marcinko MBAAn alternative BLS measurement for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), removing the biases associated with new products, changes in quality and discounted prices.

The chain weighted CPI incorporates the average changes in the quantity of goods purchased, along with standard pricing effects. This allows the chain weighted CPI to reflect situations where customers shift the weight of their purchases from one area of spending to another.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-linked-cpi.asp#ixzz2FdiMs25f

information

Investopedia Example:

The chain weighted CPI incorporates changes in both the quantities and prices of products. For example, let’s examine clothing purchases between two years. Last year you bought a sweater for $40 and two t-shirts at $35 each. This year, two sweaters were purchased at $35 each and one t-shirt for $45.

Standard CPI calculations would produce an inflation level of 13.64% 

((1 x 35 + 2 x 45)/ (1 x 40 + 2 x 35)) =1.1364

The chain weighted approach estimates inflation to be 4.55%

((2 x 35 + 1 x 45)/ (1 x 40 + 2 x 35)) =1.0455.

Using the chain weighted approach reveals the impact of a customer purchasing more sweaters than t-shirts.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-linked-cpi.asp#ixzz2FdiceVyv

BLS Application

  • What is the C-CPI-U and when did the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) begin publishing it?

BLS began publishing the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers effective with the release of July 2002 CPI data. Designated the C-CPI-U, the index supplements the existing indexes already produced by the BLS: the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

The C-CPI-U employs a formula that reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices.

Read more: C-CPI-U data can be found on the BLS web site at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?su

Substitution Bias

  • What is substitution and substitution bias? And does the C-CPI-U eliminate it?

Traditionally, the CPI was considered an upper bound on a cost-of-living index in that the CPI did not reflect the changes in consumption patterns that consumers make in response to changes in relative prices.

Since January 1999, a geometric mean formula has been used to calculate most basic indexes within the CPI; this formula allows for a modest amount of substitution within item categories as relative price changes.

The geometric mean formula, though, does not account for consumer substitution taking place between CPI item categories. For example, pork and beef are two separate CPI item categories. If the price of pork increases while the price of beef does not, consumers might shift away from pork to beef. The C-CPI-U is designed to account for this type of consumer substitution between CPI item categories. In this example, the C-CPI-U would rise, but not by as much as an index that was based on fixed purchase patterns.

With the geometric mean formula in place to account for consumer substitution within item categories, and the C-CPI-U designed to account for consumer substitution between item categories, any remaining substitution bias would be quite small.

Assessment 

Link: What ‘chained CPI’ could mean for Social Security

White Paper: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/super_paris.pdf

Conclusion

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