On Thomas Bayes’ Theorem

Courtesy: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

The Theory of Conditional Probability

In probability theory and statistics, Bayes’ theorem (alternatively Thomas Bayes’ law or Bayes’ rule, also written as Bayes’s theorem) describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.

Examples:

For example, if cancer is related to age, then, using Bayes’ theorem, a person’s age can be used to more accurately assess the probability that they have cancer, compared to the assessment of the probability of cancer made without knowledge of the person’s age.

As another example, imagine there is a drug test that is 98% accurate, meaning 98% of the time it shows a true positive result for someone using the drug and 98% of the time it shows a true negative result for nonusers of the drug. Next, assume 0.5% of people use the drug. If a person selected at random tests positive for the drug, the following calculation can be made to see whether the probability the person is actually a user of the drug.

(0.98 x 0.005) / [(0.98 x 0.005) + ((1 – 0.98) x (1 – 0.005))] = 0.0049 / (0.0049 + 0.0199) = 19.76%

Bayes’ theorem shows that even if a person tested positive in this scenario, it is actually much more likely the person is not a user of the drug.

 Assessment

In finance, Bayes’ theorem can be used to rate the risk of lending money to potential borrowers.

MORE: https://www.coursera.org/lecture/combinatorics/bayes-theorem-sqAyt

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

Book Marcinko: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

Subscribe: MEDICAL EXECUTIVE POST for curated news, essays, opinions and analysis from the public health, economics, finance, marketing, IT, business and policy management ecosystem.

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

***

What is the Cost Per Patient Acquisition [CPA]?

By Neal Baum MD

***

There’s a saying by John Wanamaker who pontificated, “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is, I don’t know which half”. Today you have opportunities to determine which parts of your marketing efforts are effective and what is wasted. However, you have to measure your marketing results. This article will discuss marketing metrics and how to use them to get the best bang for your marketing buck.

***

***

The cost per acquisition (CPA)

Not all initial phone callers to a medical practice will convert to paying patients. The 50 patients who made appointments can be plugged into the equation, i.e., campaign costs divided by patients who became paying patients or $2,000 divided by 50 equals $40, representing the patient acquisition cost (PAC).

Now, if each patient who entered the practice spends $800 over the patient’s lifetime, that’s an increase in income of $40,000, not shabby for $2,000 in marketing expenses.

Source: Neil Baum, MD, Physicians Practice [8/26/22]

***

MORE: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22834190/

BUSINESS MEDICINE: https://www.amazon.com/Business-Medical-Practice-Transformational-Doctors/dp/0826105750/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1448163039&sr=8-9&keywords=david+marcinko

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

***

PODCAST: How Accurate was that Medical Test?

Join Our Mailing List
Understanding Test Characteristics
By Aaron E. Carroll MD
 ***
Does a positive test mean that you have a disease? Does a negative test mean you’re healthy? Unfortunately, the answer to both these questions isn’t a definitive “yes”. How good a test is depends on many things.
***
syringe

 ***

Healthcare Triage: Frequent Lab Testing Isn’t Very Useful

A couple of weeks ago, Mark Cuban got into an interesting debate with much of the health wonk Twitter community (including me) over whether more lab testing is better. It began when he advocated that everyone get quarterly lab testing:

While I’m a fan of Cuban’s Shark Tank, and I respect his business acumen immensely, there are a couple of things wrong with this. It’s worth discussing them in detail. We’re going to do that here today, on Healthcare Triage.

MORE:

For those of you who want to read more, here you go:

***

Healthcare Triage: Frequent Lab Testing Isn’t Very Useful

***

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Product DetailsProduct Details

%d bloggers like this: