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    Professor David Marcinko was a board certified surgical fellow, hospital medical staff President, public and population health advocate, and Chief Executive & Education Officer with more than 425 published papers; 5,150 op-ed pieces and over 135+ domestic / international presentations to his credit; including the top ten [10] biggest drug, DME and pharmaceutical companies and financial services firms in the nation. He is also a best-selling Amazon author with 30 published academic text books in four languages [National Institute of Health, Library of Congress and Library of Medicine].

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The “Halloween Indicator” [Investment Strategy]

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What it is – How it works?

[By staff reporters]

Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger growth on average than the other months.

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“DANCE OF DEATH”

[Copyright 2018 iMBA Inc., All rights reserved. USA]

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The Strategy

In such strategies, stocks are sold at the start of May and the proceeds held in cash (e.g. a money market fund); stocks are bought again in the autumn, typically around Halloween. “Sell in May” can be characterised as the belief that it is better to avoid holding stock during the summer period.

Though this seasonality is often mentioned informally, it has largely been ignored in academic circles (perhaps being assumed to be a mere superstition). Nonetheless analysis by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) shows that the effect has indeed occurred in 36 out of 37 countries examined, and since the 17th century (1694) in the United Kingdom; it is strongest in Europe. While the effect may reflect a failure of the efficient-market hypothesis, alternatives exist such as small sample size or time variation in expected stock market returns.

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halloween

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Causes the Effect

Although it’s not clear what causes the effect, what’s most interesting is that it shows that stock market returns in many countries during the period May–October are systematically negative or lower than the short-term interest rate, which also goes against the efficient-market hypothesis. Stock market returns should not be predictably lower than the short-term interest rate (risk free rate).

Popular media often refer to this market wisdom in the month of May, claiming that in the six months to come things will be different and the pattern will not show.

However, as the effect has been strongly present in most developed markets (including the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and most European countries) in the last decade – especially May–October 2009 – these claims are often proved wrong.

That said, between April 30 and October 30, 2009, the FTSE 100 gained 20% (from 4,189.59 to 5,044.55)

Academics

The effect has largely been ignored in academic circles. The idea contradicts much established theory, especially the efficient-market hypothesis.

Maberly and Pierce extended the data to April 2003. They also tested the strategy for April 1982 through April 2003 except for two months, October 1987 and August 1998. They found that it doesn’t work well in the time period April 1982–September 1987 plus November 1987–July 1998 plus September 1998–April 2003.[7] Other regression models using the same data but controlling for extreme outliers have found the Halloween effect to still be significant.[8]

“Sell in May and go away” has persisted as a profitable market-timing strategy for stock investors, according to a follow-up study by Andrade, Chhaochharia and Fuerst (2012). They find that the Sell-in-May seasonal pattern persists after the end of Bouman and Jacobsen’s (2002) sample. This is important in showing that the Halloween effect is not a statistical fluke detected by data mining. Strikingly, in the 1998–2012 sample on average November–April returns are larger than May–October returns in all 37 markets they study. On average, the difference is equal to about 10% percentage points. Also strikingly, the magnitude of the difference is the same in Bouman and Jacobsen’s (2002) and in the out-of-sample analysis of Andrade, Chhaochharia and Fuerst (2012). Further backtesting by Mebane Faber has shown this effect has been in place since 1950.

Source: Sell in May Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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BBmmXXC

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/best-6-months-for-stocks-could-be-right-around-the-corner/ar-BBmma2Y?li=AA4Zjn&ocid=U348DHP

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More: 

Even More:

Much More:

Assessment

Was this indicator appropriate for 2018?

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners(TM)

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“Neutral-Site” and Out-Patient Medical Payments

Neutral-Site and Out-Patient Medical Payments

[By Staff Reporters]

The Medicare program currently pays significantly different rates for services provided in different settings, and site-neutral payments have been considered as one way of eliminating the payment gap.

However, that option has proven to be a contentious issue.

Here are 25 things to know about site-neutral payments

LINK: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/25-things-to-know-about-site-neutral-payments.html

MORE: https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/cms-finalizes-site-neutral-payment-rule

Assessment: Your thoughts are appreciated

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Product DetailsProduct Details

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The Cost of Business Embezzlement

Nothing Typical

By Rick Kahler CFP

As a fan of our local ECHL hockey team, the Rapid City Rush, I was sorry to learn recently that the team’s new owners had uncovered evidence of some $500,000 worth of embezzlement over the past several years.

Other embezzlement arrests or convictions in our area in 2019 have included a priest, an accountant for a nonprofit, a former chief of a volunteer fire department, and a former secretary of a tribal office. Amounts stolen ranged from $9,100 to $250,000.

Few things strike more fear and disbelief into the heart of an employer than learning a trusted employee has embezzled thousands of dollars. Employers that have gone through this tell me their feelings range from disbelief, violation, anger both at the employee and at themselves, sadness, and fear over the loss of capital and ensuing financial problems the embezzlement often causes.

The study

According to the 2018 Hiscox Embezzlement Study, most instances of embezzlement are serious, long-term crimes. The average case lasted over two years, and the average loss was $357,650. The vast majority of cases involved more than one person. Nearly a third of employee theft cases persisted for more than five years. The average loss for cases that continued for five years or more was $2.2 million and for cases lasting 10 years or more was $5.4 million.

The study found that there is no “typical” embezzler. However, it did find that the median age of embezzlers is 48, slightly more women than men commit this type of crime, and embezzlers’ most common job functions are finance and accounting.

Embezzlers may target organizations of all sizes and types. Four of the five local cases I cited were non-profits. Large organizations experience fewer instances of embezzlement than small and mid-sized organizations. According to the study, financial services continues to account for the highest number of cases of employee theft of any industry examined.

Many business owners, executive directors, and board members blame themselves for allowing theft to happen under their watch, but in all fairness the warning signs are often subtle.

Hiscox has identified five common characteristics to watch for:

 Intelligence and curiosity: Embezzlers are often eager to know how everything in the office works. Once they learn the processes, they manipulate them for their own gain.

• Extravagance: Watch for employees who are living a lifestyle that is out of proportion to their salary.

 Egotistical risk-taking. Embezzlers often break rules, from traffic laws to company policies to social norms, both at work and in their personal lives.

 Diligence and ambition. Embezzlers may work long hours or refuse to take time off—not out of dedication to the job but in an attempt to avoid being caught.

• Disgruntlement. Employees who feel they are being treated unfairly may be tempted to get even by stealing.

In my experience, most people are honest and trustworthy. But there are some whose past trauma contributes to a pattern of poor financial decisions and behaviors. Embezzlement, which to some degree can be a crime of opportunity, might even seem to be a way to avoid the consequences of previous poor money choices.

The study noted that more than half of the organizations recovered less than a third of what was taken. It also pointed out that embezzlement costs companies far more than money. Business partners may be lost. The damage to an organization’s reputation results in lost customers or donors and difficulty attracting new ones. It can take years to recover. Yet three-quarters of respondents said their current employers did not have insurance to cover embezzlement losses.

Assessment: Embezzlement is a serious crime with serious consequences.

Conclusion

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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The “Lucifer Effect”

Understanding How Good People Turn Evil

[By staff reporters]

This is a 2007 book which includes Professor Philip Zimbardo’s first detailed, written account of the events surrounding the 1971 Stanford Prison Experiment — a prison simulation study which had to be discontinued after only six days due to several distressing outcomes and mental breaks of the participants.

The book includes over 30 years of subsequent research into the psychological and social factors which result in immoral acts being committed by otherwise moral people.

It also examines the prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib in 2003, which has similarities to the Stanford experiment. The title takes its name from the biblical story of the favored angel of God, Lucifer, his fall from grace, and his assumption of the role of Satan, the embodiment of evil. The book was briefly on The New York Times Non-Fiction Best Seller and won the American Psychological Association’s 2008 William James Book Award.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Diwali – 2019

Diwali, Deepavali or Dipavali

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA

Diwali, Deepavali or Dipavali is the Hindu festival of lights, which is celebrated every autumn in the northern hemisphere.

One of the most popular festivals of Hinduism, Diwali symbolises the spiritual “victory of light over darkness, good over evil and knowledge over ignorance”.

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During the celebration, temples, homes, shops and office buildings are brightly illuminated. The preparations, and rituals, for the festival typically last five days, with the climax occurring on the third day coinciding with the darkest night of the Hindu Lunisolar month Kartika.

In the Gregorian calendar, the festival generally falls between mid-October and mid-November.

Invite Dr. Marcinko

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National Prescription Drug Take Back Day

October 26, 2019 – 10:AM to 2:PM

The National Prescription Drug Take Back Day aims to provide a safe, convenient, and responsible means of disposing of prescription drugs, while also educating the general public about the potential for abuse of medications.

Prescription Pill Bottles

MORE: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=dea+take+back+day&&view=detail&mid=0D5B986D9C5FD79B077B0D5B986D9C5FD79B077B&&FORM=VRDGAR

MORE: https://takebackday.dea.gov/

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Ambulance DEM

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