Efficient Market Hypothesis – or Perhaps Not?

Posted on October 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Contradicting the Hypothesis

[A SPECIAL ME-P REPORT]

[By Timothy J McIntosh MBA CFP® MPH CMP™ [Hon]

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Not everyone believes in the efficient market.  Numerous researchers over the previous decades have found stock market anomalies that indicate a contradiction with the hypothesis.  The search for anomalies is effectively the hunt for market patterns that can be utilized to outperform passive strategies.

white swan

[White Swan of the EMH]

Such stock market anomalies that have been proven to go against the findings of the EMH theory include:

  1. Low Price to Book Effect
  2. January Effect
  3. The Size Effect
  4. Insider Transaction Effect
  5. The Value Line Effect

The Anomalies

All the above anomalies have been proven over time to outperform the market.  For example, the first anomaly listed above is the Low Price to Book Effect.  The first and most discussed study on the performance of low price to book value stocks was by Dr. Eugene Fama and Dr. Kenneth R. French.  The study covered the time period from 1963-1990 and included nearly all the stocks on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. The stocks were divided into ten subgroups by book/market and were re-ranked annually.

In the study, Fama and French found that the lowest book/market stocks outperformed the highest book/market stocks by a substantial margin (21.4 percent vs. 8 percent).  Remarkably, as they examined each upward decile, performance for that decile was below that of the higher book value decile.  Fama and French also ordered the deciles by beta (measure of systematic risk) and found that the stocks with the lowest book value also had the lowest risk.

What is Value?

Today, most researchers now deem that “value” represents a hazard feature that investors are compensated for over time.  The theory being that value stocks trading at very low price book ratios are inherently risky, thus investors are simply compensated with higher returns in exchange for taking the risk of investing in these value stocks.

The Fama and French research has been confirmed through several additional studies.  In a Forbes Magazine 5/6/96 column titled “Ben Graham was right–again,” author David Dreman published his data from the largest 1500 stocks on Compustat for the 25 years ending 1994. He found that the lowest 20 percent of price/book stocks appreciably outperformed the market.

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Ex-Cathedra black swan

[Ex-Cathedra or Black Swan Event]

Assessment

One item a medical professional should be aware of is the strong paradox of the efficient market theory.   If each investor believes the stock market were efficient, then all investors would give up analyzing and forecasting.  All investors would then accept passive management and invest in index funds.

But, if this were to happen, the market would no longer be efficient because no one would be scrutinizing the markets.  In actuality, the efficient market hypothesis actually depends on active investors attempting to outperform the market through diligent research

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The Author

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist.  He is featured in publications like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, Investment Advisor, Fortune, MD News, Tampa Doctor’s Life, and The St. Petersburg Times.  He has been recognized as a Five Star Wealth Manager in Texas Monthly magazine; and continuously named as Medical Economics’ “Best Financial Advisors for Physicians since 2004.  And, he is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com., a premier website of investment opinion. Mr. McIntosh earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from Florida State University; Master of Business Administration (M.B.A) degree from the University of Sarasota; Master of Public Health Degree (M.P.H) from the University of South Florida and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® practitioner. His previous experience includes employment with Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Florida, Enterprise Leasing Company, and the United States Army Military Intelligence.

Conclusion

So, what about the “January Effect for 2025“?

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Of Gray Rhinos & Other Financial Threats!

Posted on December 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Rick Kahler MS CFP

By Rick Kahler MS CFP®

“There he is,” our South African guide whispered excitedly. About 200 feet away stood a black rhino, the rarest and most aggressive of the rhinos. The rhino focused his full attention on us as he repeatedly took a few steps and stopped. After several minutes, he moved so a bush blocked our view of him. “Ok, he is using the bush as a cover and is probably going to charge. We need to leave. Start walking backward and keep your eyes in the direction where you saw the rhino.”

As I started backing up as fast as I could, the guide barked in his loudest whisper, “Don’t run! If he charges drop to the ground; he won’t trample you.” I can’t say I was comforted by this bit of information.

This experience taught me a rhino on the horizon represents a real and present danger.

Ignoring it can result in paying a heavy price

At this year’s FPA Retreat, one of the speakers was Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Respond to the Obvious Dangers We Ignore. She said that when it comes to financial planning and investments, rhinos loom everywhere. Wucker described these dangers as different from elephants and black swans.

The elephant in the room is something we see but no one is going to do anything about. It’s not going anywhere, and we will construct our life to accommodate it. Common financial elephants that I see are adult children financially dependent upon enabling parents, a financially controlling spouse with a history of poor financial decisions, or a family member addicted to spending,

A black swan is unpredictable, something we don’t even see. It can be the loss of a job, the sudden death of a breadwinner, or the collapse of a highly rated financial institution.

The grey rhino is something you know is stalking you. You know it is coming, but you don’t know when. The trick to avoiding a rhino is recognizing and acting on the obvious dangers we ignore.

***

Ex-Cathedra black swan

[Black Swan]

***

There are a lot of grey rhinos in the financial world

Here are a few common ones:

1. The next stock market crash. I guarantee you the stock market will crash at some time in the future. The best plan I know is to prepare yourself to do nothing, so you don’t panic and sell.
2. Death. It is certainly inevitable, yet the majority of Americans don’t have a will.
3. Health costs. At some point in your life you will need health care, and good health care is, and will always be, expensive.
4. House and vehicle repairs. Normal wear and tear should come as no surprise.

Yet another critter lurks around the financial landscape: the bat. Where I live, bats show up every evening at dusk, without fail. Financial bats are equally predictable.

These are future events or expenses that we know are coming, such as:

1. College. Subtract each minor child’s age from 18. That’s the number of years you have to save to fund their college education.
2. Retirement. Subtract your age from the age at which you want to quit working. This is how many years you have to accumulate enough wealth to replace your salary.
3. Taxes. We even know the day and the hour on this one.
4. Birthday and Christmas gifts. These come every year, just as reliably as the bats.

Assessment

What’s the best way to cope with this financial zoo? I suggest emulating another animal—the lowly ant from Aesop’s fable. Unlike the happy-go-lucky grasshopper, the ant put away resources so it was prepared for future hardships.

Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Is it Fire Drill Time for Physician Investors?

Posted on August 14, 2014 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Catastrophes and “Black Swans” Happen

An ME-P Special Report

By Lon Jeffereis MBA CFP® CMP®

Lon JeffriesHistory tells us that over a long enough time span catastrophes are likely to occur. Fires, flooding, earthquakes – none can be prevented and all can be potentially devastating. While these events can’t always be avoided, we can prepare for these “black swans.”

Running practice fire drills enables us to act appropriately during misfortune while maintaining emergency food storage ensures we won’t starve when tragedy strikes.

Just as physical calamity can turn lives upside down, financial upheaval can lead to an unrecoverable loss. Fortunately, we have the ability to prepare for financial uncertainty in the same way we prepare for other exposures. As the current bull market is now both the fourth longest in history (64 months) and the fourth largest (+192% gain), now would be a perfect time to ensure you are prepared for the next market pullback.

Run a Portfolio Fire Drill

You can run a fire drill for your portfolio by understanding the loss potential of your holdings. It is critical to recognize that the amount of volatility your portfolio will experience in declining market environments is dependent on your asset allocation – how much of your account is invested in stocks vs. bonds. The larger the percentage of stocks in a portfolio, the more the portfolio’s value will increase during bull markets but decrease when the market declines. Let’s look at the historical performance and risk levels of a range of diversified stock-to-bond ratios:

Asset Allocation – Risk & Return (1970-2013)

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Portfolio Allocation Average Annual Return Large Loss 08′
100% Stocks 10.85% -39%
80% Stocks20% Bonds 10.33% -30%
60% Stocks40% Bonds 9.99% -20%
50% Stocks50% Bonds 9.76% -15%
40% Stocks60% Bonds 9.49% -11%
20% Stocks80% Bonds 8.85% -4%

 ***

After determining the asset allocation of your portfolio, ask yourself how you would respond to another market correction like we experienced in 2008. For this exercise, considering loss in dollar terms is particularly productive. For instance, if 80% of your portfolio is invested in stocks, you might be able to convince yourself that you could sustain a 30% loss. However, supposing you have $500k invested, a 30% loss would mean your portfolio is suddenly depleted to $350k — $150k of hard earned money just evaporated. To many, the thought of losing $150k is more uncomfortable than the thought of a 30% loss.

Next, picture every media outlet sending warnings day after day about how the market is only going to get worse. Imagine yourself checking what the markets are doing multiple times a day and constantly being disappointed that it is another day of losses.

Lastly, visualize your occasional friend, neighbor or family member bragging about how he got out of the market before the collapse and telling you how you are a fool for not doing so.

***

Accidents Happen

[Accidents Happen]

How would you respond in such an environment? Would you have a hard time sleeping or digesting your food? It’s critical to be honest with yourself. If you would stray from your long-term investment strategy by selling after a market drop and waiting for the market to recover, your current portfolio may be too aggressive. If so, scale back the assertiveness of your portfolio by reducing your stock exposure now because selling stocks during a market decline is the last thing you want to do.

Sound financial planning suggests individuals should scale back the assertiveness of their portfolio as they approach retirement. While a young worker with 30 years until retirement can afford to be aggressive and has time to recover if a large loss in suffered, a person who is closer to retirement can’t afford to endure a significant loss right before the invested funds are needed to cover life expenses.

Maintain an Emergency Financial Storage

As stocks and bonds are the long-term portion of your investment portfolio, cash equivalents are your tool for dealing with short-term spending needs. Before even investing, everyone should have an emergency reserve holding enough cash to cover three to six months of expenses. These funds should only be tapped in the event of a job loss or a medical emergency.

Be Prepared

Additionally, investors who are taking withdrawals from their portfolio in order to meet cash flow needs should also have the equivalent of two years of necessary withdrawals in cash at all times. These funds should be used to cover living expenses during the next market correction. Having this emergency financial storage will prevent you from having to take withdrawals in a down market and allow your portfolio time to recover.

Assessment

No one knows when the next bear market will come. However, just like winter follows every fall, market corrections will ultimately come after every bull market.  Preparing for such a financial downturn will ensure you act appropriately when the time comes and prevent financial catastrophe.

BOOK: Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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