PODCAST: Turning a PBS Interviewer into an NFT Interviewee

On the Non-Fungible Token Market

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By Vitaliy Katseneson CFA

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Turning a PBS Interviewer into Interviewee
I was interviewed on PBS Newshour about the insanity that is happening in the NFT (non-fungible token) market. You can watch it here. If you read my “I Kid You Not Crazy” article, then you know everything I have to say about NFTs and cryptocurrency. I can sum up my thoughts on NFTs in one sentence: NFTs, just like cryptocurrencies, are a technology of the future, but a speculative bubble induced by excess global liquidity in the present. 

I encourage you to watch this eight-minute video – PBS did a great job. 

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Thank You

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https://www.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-Advisors/dp/1482240289/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418580820&sr=8-1&keywords=david+marcinko

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https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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The DOT.com Bubble HAS Burst!

What is NEXT?

U.S. equities closed lower as losses in the Technology, Consumer Services and Financials sectors propelled shares lower. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.73%, while the S&P 500 index lost 2.91%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 3.52%.

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By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson CFA

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What a Day – TODAY!

READ: https://tinyurl.com/2r8zaftk

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

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How to Give a Great Speech

By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson CFA

Little Moments, or How to Give a Great Speech

Conclusion

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More Practitioners, Prognosticators and Portfolio Pain

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 “Altitude Sickness,” or Value Asphyxiation?

vitaly[By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson CFA]

“Asphyxiation is a condition in which the body doesn’t receive enough oxygen.”

That’s how I started another column awhile back , in which I explained how the recent U.S. equity market highs have been creating “altitude sickness,” or value asphyxiation, for investors. If you look down from 30,000 feet, the market is trading at a significant premium to its average long-term valuation, especially if you normalize earnings for sky-high profit margins.

The Trench View

The view from the trenches is not much different. I spend a lot of time looking for new stocks, either by screen or by reading or talking to other value investors. We are all having a hard time finding many stocks of interest. In fact, we’ve been doing a lot more selling than buying.

I often get asked a question: Are we in a bubble? Bubble is a word that has been thrown around a lot lately. There may be an academic definition of what a bubble is — probably something to do with valuations at least a few standard deviations from the mean — but I don’t really care what it is. (Only academics believe in normal distributions.)

The Practitioner’s View

From the practitioner’s perspective, a bubbly valuation occurs when the price-earnings ratio of a company is so high that its earnings will have a hard time growing into investors’ expectations. In other words, the stock is so expensive that investors holding it will find it difficult to realize a positive return for a long time (think of Cisco Systems, Microsoft and Sun Microsystems in 2000). There are some bubbly stocks in the market today. Most years you see some, but today there are probably a few more than usual.

We see a lot of overvalued or fully valued stocks. Expectations (valuations) of those stocks have already more than priced in rosy earnings growth scenarios. If these scenarios play out, investors will likely make very little money, as earnings growth will merely offset P/E compression. But here is where it gets interesting: The line between overvalued and bubbly stocks is often very murky. If the economy’s growth is lower than expected or corporate profit margins revert toward the mean (or, in the situation we have today, decline), the return profiles of these stocks will not be substantially different from those of the bubbly ones. Unfortunately for the value-asphyxiated investor, there are a lot of stocks that fall into this overvalued bucket.

It is very hard for investors to remain disciplined and stick to an investment process. Selling overvalued stocks is hard, because every sell decision brings consequent pain as overvalued stocks that are not aware you’ve sold them keep on marching higher. Just as Pavlov’s dog responded to a bell, the pain of selling teaches us not to sell.

More Pain

If that pain were not enough, cash keeps burning a hole in our portfolios. Cash doesn’t rise in value when everything else is rising; thus investors feel forced to buy. When you are forced into a buy or sell decision, the outcome will usually not be good. Forced buy decisions are usually bad buy decisions. Just because a stock looks less bad than the rest of the market doesn’t make it a good stock. Maybe its peer is trading at 23 times earnings and your pick is trading at “only” 19. Such relative logic is dangerous today, because it anchors you to a transitory environment that may or may not be there for you in the future (most likely not).

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investmentcenter5

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An Annoying Phase

We are in the most annoying phase of the investing calendar: the month when every market strategist and his dog have to make a prediction as to what the market will do next year. To be right in forecasting, you have to predict often. And market strategists do. In fact, they predict so often that no one remembers how often their predictions worked out. I am not knocking the prognosticators: That is their job. They predict and sound smart doing it — just like it’s the barber’s job to cut your hair and pretend he is concentrating on not cutting off your ear.

It is your job, however, not to pay attention to the predictors. They simply don’t know. They may have a gut feeling, but that feeling is worth as much as you pay for it — very little. To time the market, you have to forecast what the economy will do, which is also very difficult. The Fed has 450 economists working full time on that (half of them are Ph.D.s, but I am not going to hold it against them), and they have an amazingly poor track record. Then you have to figure out how other market participants will respond to the economics news — and that is incredibly difficult. Let’s say you nailed both of these tasks. You still need to predict the multitude of random events — a few of which may be very large black swans — that will show up in the next 12 months. There is a reason why they are called “random.”

Assessment

Though it is dangerous to drink the market’s Kool-Aid and celebrate, it is not time to be gloomy either. There is good news for all of us: Cyclical bull markets are here to absolve us from our “buy” sins. Not every stock in your portfolio is marching in rhythm to its fundamentals. Indeed, this market has lifted many stocks while divorcing them from their weak fundamentals. This absolution is temporary: Take advantage of it.

ABOUT

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley 2007) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, 2010).  His books have been translated into eight languages.  Forbes called him – the new Benjamin Graham.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Knowing the Difference Between Stock Value and Price

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A Motley Fool Interview

vitaly

ABOUT

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson CFA is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley 2007) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, 2010).  His books were translated into eight languages.  Forbes Magazine called him “The new Benjamin Graham”.  

The Motley Fool,

Our own Editor Dr. Dave Marcinko recently spoke with Vitaliy, as well as The Motley Fool’s James Early and Rana Pritanjali. Vitaliy explained how he helps investors see the difference between a stock’s value and its price, as well how he assesses macroeconomic trends when investing.

Assessment

Plus, Vitaliy predicted the next category Apple will disrupt: the automotive industry.

You can listen and read the full interview here.

PS: You can read Manifesto – The Values of Value Investing, here.

I hope you enjoy it  – Ann Miller RN MHA [Managing Editor]

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™                    Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

An Investor’s Guide to Better Writing

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Seriously?

[By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA]

ImageProxyI never thought I’d be giving writing advice. I was always the worst student in my literature class in Russia. I never received a grade higher than a C on any Russian essay I ever wrote. I have a theory that my teachers got sick of reading and grading my horrible essays, so they stopped and automatically gave me a passing grade out of pity. I don’t blame them.

When I came to the U.S., my grades in English class in college were not spectacular either; in fact, English was the only class I failed in college and actually had to retake my senior year.

My writing has improved slightly since then – and you, my loyal readers, get to be the judge of my scribbles. However, if the prequalification for giving writing advice was based solely on quantity – on how many words have blackened a perfectly fine white screen or besmirched innocent paper – then I am more than qualified. I have been at it for exactly a decade.

My writing “career” started in 2004 when I was hired as a writer by TheStreet.com. I was not hired because I was good – I wasn’t. But I had an investing background, and TheStreet.com was not very picky; it needed warm bodies (ideally with CFA next to their names) to comment on the markets and stocks. TheStreet.com paid almost nothing, and it was overpaying me.

I had zero experience, but I was ambitious. I took writing very seriously, and therefore my articles were serious. They were filled with big words, and, quite frankly, they were enormously boring. In addition, I was extremely self-conscious about grammar. Sentence structure and punctuation drove me nuts, and I was afraid of confusing words that were spelled similarly but had unrelated meanings (like comma and coma).

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Typewriter

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LESSONS LEARNED

This brings me to the first lesson that I want to impart about writing, and it’s one that will drive English teachers insane: Don’t worry about grammar.

Once I stopped worrying about grammar, I felt a huge weight lifted from my shoulders (as all those little punctuation marks emptied themselves from my brain). I completely gave up on a, an and the (my 12-year-old son, who was born here, does a great job fixing those for me), I stopped obsessing about commas (and comas), and I stopped trying to ferret out all the other marvelous secrets of English grammar. I let copy editors – who are very talented and oh so skilled at this – catch me out in all my little peccadilloes. Instead I channel my energy into making writing interesting and funny (if appropriate); this is Lesson No. 2.There are a lot of smart investors, and a lot of them write (just visit the web site Seeking Alpha), but only a small fraction manage to make their writing interesting (again, just visit Seeking Alpha) – and those are the ones who are read more than once.

As I mentioned, when I started writing, my articles were technical and boring. I still feel sorry for the people who read them and especially for my dear friends who felt an obligation to read them.

Then an accident happened. Six months into writing for TheStreet.com, I wrote about the digital video recorder company TiVo. In that article I dared to use a little bit of humor to describe a painful experience I had when I called TiVo’s automated telephone customer service, which did not seem to understand my “slight” Russian accent. To my embarrassment, I had to ask my three-year-old son, who by that time had already acquired a perfect “Disney” accent, to talk to the machine instead, and of course it understood him just fine.

That article was not brilliant – it contained as many or as few insights as my previous articles did – but it was not “proper,” and it was not boring. Suddenly, the feedback from readers was much different – I received a ton of e-mail. Then I understood the power of humor. But it was not just humor: I was able to deliver my otherwise boring message in an interesting way.

I realized that knowing what you want to say is not enough; you need to figure out how to say it.

To this day, I spend hours staring at the computer, trying to come up with an interesting analogy or a compelling angle on how to say something I already know. I often use analogies to tell a story, especially if the topic is complex. They help me relate complex ideas through simple examples.

Let me illustrate. I have a very smart investor friend of German ancestry. True to his roots, he is very efficient in everything he does. (I am stereotyping here, but why not?) He has written a very smart investment book. If you read the whole thing, you’d learn a lot. But that is a big if. His book is as efficient and properly structured as you would expect from a well-engineered German car or an instruction manual for that car. It doesn’t have an extra word or a superfluous sentence. But unfortunately, in the process of making it efficient, he sterilized his book. I was excited to read it but could not get past Chapter 3. I got terminally bored, and I do investments for a living.

Oh, and while we’re on the subject of boredom: Follow novelist Elmore Leonard’s advice when he said, “I try to leave out the parts that people skip.” Don’t try to be descriptive for the sake of being descriptive.

Andrew Blum in 2012 wrote a terrific book called Tubes: A Journey to the Center of the Internet . However, in his other life Andrew is a reporter who covers architecture. His job is to describe inanimate objects. In Tubes he often goes into “descriptive mode,” telling us all about things that do not need to be described. For example, at one point he falls into an exhaustive description of the hotel he stayed in near the Los Angeles International Airport. The hotel room had nothing to do with the story, but he went on and on, describing bars of soap, their colors, the plate they were on and how the sunlight bounced off each one of them.

After making it through the third chapter, I gave up and downloaded the audiobook of Tubes. So maybe Andrew succeeded after all, since I ended up buying two versions of his book. (And I do highly recommend listening to his book if you want to learn about the Internet.)

It took a while for my writing style to develop. A big part of its development came through reading great writers. The two people who had the most impact on me were John Mauldin and Cliff Asness.

John needs no introduction, as his economics newsletter (Mauldin Economics) is read by millions. He has a gift for explaining complex investment topics simply, but he also invites you into his life. He shares stories about the trips he takes and the people he meets; he talks about his kids and their travails, his lack of time for the gym and his penchant for cooking mushrooms. When you read him, you feel as if he’s writing for you – just you. This is different from fiction writing, in which the author’s fingerprints are hidden.

Cliff Asness has had a tremendous impact on me as well. Cliff is a hedge fund manager; he runs the large quant firm AQR Capital Management in Greenwich, Connecticut. Cliff has an incredible gift for being witty. Back in 2005 I read a paper by Cliff discussing the most boring topic on earth: the expensing of employee stock options. At the time, companies did not consider them an expense. Cliff argued that the companies were wrong and needed to show the options on their income statements, just like any other expense.

I had written on the same topic just a few months before, making a similar point. But after I read his paper, I sent Cliff an e-mail with the subject line “I am not worthy.” Cliff’s paper was published in the most boring finance magazine in the whole universe: Financial Analysts Journal (every article in it is full of geeky Greek symbols). To my astoundment, Cliff was able to inject humor where I thought it was not possible. I wrote a very boring, unmemorable article on stock options; Cliff wrote a great, funny article on the same topic that I still remember today.

John Mauldin showed me through his writing that it’s okay to be personal, and Cliff proved it is okay to be funny. No, Cliff proved that you must be funny when you discuss boring topics – this is how you make the reader stick with it. Lesson No. 3: Identify your favorite writers, the ones whose voices you can really relate to, and learn from them.

I could relate to John’s and Cliff’s writings because they fit my personality and my natural writing style. They liberated me from being sanitized, impersonal and boring.

A sublesson here is, Read to write. When you read, always have your writer’s hat on, and pay attention not just to content but to the quality of the writing as well. That is not something that comes automatically to most of us; we have to manually hit the “on” switch.

Lesson No. 4: Be respectful of your environment. This is not an ecological statement; I am talking about your writing environment. If you write long enough, you start to appreciate the importance of your external and internal environment. Stephen King, in his terrific book On Writing: A Memoir on the Craft , said that he listens to heavy metal band AC/DC when he writes; he feels it walls him off from the external world and helps him build his own worlds. I listen to classical music, and if I am really stuck, I start listening to opera.

And if that weren’t weird enough, I write only in italics. This little trick makes my letters look a bit friendlier to me. If you find that you like your font to be pink, go for it. We writers need any edge we can get, and you can always change back to a color and format that is acceptable to society when you are done.

The final lesson: Be prepared for pain – or maybe not. Writing is a very personal process. Some of us are great thinkers, able to puzzle through very complex ideas in our heads and lay them out logically on paper. I have tremendous respect for those lucky ones. For most of us, present company included, writing is usually a painful endeavor that involves staring at a blank screen for hours on end and writing and rewriting multiple times.

In fact, let me take it a step farther: I think through writing. A quote from George Bernard Shaw comes to mind: “Few people think more than two or three times a year; I have made an international reputation for myself by thinking once or twice a week.”

If you ask me a question about something I have not thought about before, even if you give me a minute to think about it, my answer will usually, well … suck. I have not written about that topic yet, and so I may not have thought it through, and the logical links may not have been made. That’s just how my mind operates.

Quite frankly, I am embarrassed for my brain. It’s like the dirty apartment of a confirmed bachelor, with unwashed clothes, empty pizza boxes and beer bottles all over the floor. For an idea to be developed to the point at which it can leave the room, I have to clean it up, organize it, put things in their rightful place. That is why I write – sorry, dear reader, it’s not about you; it’s about me, me and me again.

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money

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More:

ASSESSMENT

Writing is not a linear process, and when you sit down to write, your thoughts may not be quite ready to come out – it’s okay if they just haven’t come to a boil yet. Don’t blame it on writer’s block. Author Tom Clancy once said, “Writer’s block is just an official term for being lazy, and the way to get through it is work.” Just take some time off, do something fun and then get back on the writing horse.

ABOUT

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, December 2010). To receive Vitaliy’s future articles by email or read his articles click here.

Investment Management Associates Inc. is a value investing firm based in Denver, Colorado. Its main focus is on growing and preserving wealth for private investors and institutions while adhering to a disciplined value investment process, as detailed in Vitaliy’s book Active Value Investing (Wiley, 2007).

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners(TM)