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With odds high for the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in nearly a decade, and seemingly everyone predicting that rising rates are coming in the next few weeks, why in the world is the yield curve not steepening aggressively?

Something curious is happening

There is a mistaken notion out there that if the Fed raises rates, the cost of capital on everything is going to rise.  This is far too simplistic a way of viewing the bond market.  If the Fed raises rates and the market perceives it as being too early, then longer duration bond yields likely would actually fall and credit spreads likely would widen.  In other words, some rates could fall because the Fed is raising short rates.

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In a healthy environment, Fed hiking would coincide with a steepening yield curve, as growth and inflation expectations become more aggressively priced in. As of late, it seems as though the bond market vastly disagree with the Fed’s December timing.

Of course all this could change, as probabilities continuously change

So, if the Fed decides not to raise rates, and the yield curve continues to flatten, then something very serious may be underway in terms of 2016 economic expectations.  It does seem plausible that from a cycle perspective, the era for passive buy and hold investing in large-cap stocks is nearing its end, allowing for more active alpha opportunities to present themselves.

This would likely translate into more volatility in equities, which we believe our alternative Morningstar 4 Star overall rated ATAC Inflation Rotation Fund (Ticker: ATACX, rating as of 9/30/15 among 234 Tactical Allocation Funds derived from a weighted average of the fund’s 3-year risk-adjusted return measures) is distinctly qualified to handle given our focus on being defensive in Treasuries at the right time.

Having said that, despite my own personal believe the Fed will raise rates, it is concerning to see how longer duration bonds are behaving.

The key needs to be a comeback in commodities and emerging market stocks

For the yield curve in the United States to steepen, and for the Federal Reserve to “get it right,” likely a surprise recovery is needed in cyclical growth sentiment.  Commodities and emerging markets are among the most sensitive areas of the investable landscape to that, so it stands to reason that their movement would show the whites of the eyes of that happening.  The issue however is that every time is looks like budding momentum is about to become more entrenched, that momentum quickly reverses and creates a false positive on rising growth expectations.

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Recent manufacturing data confirms that not much has changed on the growth side of the equation.  So far, broader equities seem to not care given historically favorable December seasonality.  That doesn’t mean one should not be considering this in an overall asset allocation policy.

Complicating-The European Central Bank

In many ways, crushing the Euro through more stimulus has the same effect as Federal Reserve tightening precisely because a rising Dollar is a contractionary force to exports.  European stimulus is Fed tightening IF it results in a Dollar super-spike.  Should that occur, the Fed would be more likely that not to not raise rates and actually do another round of stimulus.

Assessment

Insane sounding?  Maybe.  But; so is an environment where no amount of money printing seems to be accelerating the economy.

ABOUT

The ATAC Rotation Mutual Funds are managed by Pension Partners, LLC, an independent registered investment advisor.  The strategies were developed by Co-Portfolio Managers Edward M. Dempsey, CFP® and Michael A. Gayed, CFA. The Funds rotate offensively or defensively based on historically proven leading indicators of volatility, with the goal of taking less risk at the right time.

Conclusion

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