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Synopsis of the Most Recent Week Ending May 4th, 2012 … and Weekly Thereafter
[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA]
The US economy continues to seek traction.
The latest Federal, Bureau Labor Statistics, Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Product reports – along with employment, housing, manufacturing and other leading macro and microeconomic indicators – seem to suggest soft job growth, weak business activity in the huge service sector, and increasingly cautious consumers.
Yet manufacturing activity appears to be solid and employers seem poised to hire—but who knows when?
Assessment
A new ME-P feature, and brief review for financial advisors, physician investors, healthcare economists and all ME-P readers and subscribers.
Conclusion
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***
Front Matter with Foreword by Jason Dyken MD MBA
***
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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Breaking News, Financial Planning, Health Economics, Investing | Tagged: BLS, GDP, GNP, leading economic indicators, macro-economics, micro-economics, Weekly Domestic Economic Update |
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ME-P,
This is a nice new feature. Short and Sweet. I look forward to it.
Dr. Korbin
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Back to Debt?
Consumers borrowed much more than expected in March, as both student and car loans shot up and credit card borrowing rose after declining in January and February.
Analysts are unsure whether this news signals a real pickup in demand or just a need to lean more on credit, as job and income growth remain weak.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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Yahoo CEO Thompson to quit company
Yahoo CEO Scott Thompson, charged by a shareholder group of lying on his resume, will quit the company.
http://marketday.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/13/11685412-report-yahoo-ceo-thompson-to-quit-company?lite
Everett
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Fed alert to risks on the horizon
The economic recovery continued to move at a slow and sporadic pace; however, longer-term risks seem to be casting shadows on its durability.
For the first time in seven months, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators did not show growth. The Federal Reserve revealed that some of its members are concerned about long-term obstacles in the form of upcoming fiscal negotiations in the United States and the financial struggles in Europe.
The latest reports showed encouraging signs for the housing market and the manufacturing sector, while consumers slowed their retail purchases.
Oh! And, don’t forget the Facebook IPO today.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Home, sweet home?
Be it ever so humble, the current housing market recovery may have a foundation. Although the numbers are still low by historical standards, reports on existing-home and new-home sales were both encouraging in a light week for economic news.
There was also a bump in durable-goods orders, largely because of a rise in orders for transportation equipment.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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WOWSA!
The U.S. recovery slowed more sharply than first thought this week. The spring job market was much weaker than expected, and new figures indicate that economic growth earlier this year slowed more than originally reported. Unemployment rose to about 8.2%
Crude oil declined 17% in May and financial markets slumped. The DOW finished the week at 12,118 while the NASDAQ finished at 2,747. And, US Treasury yields sank to record lows.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Don’t be so Gloomy
Dr. Marcinko – If you had invested $10,000 in Apple in 1999 at $20 per share, that $10,000 would now be worth a whopping $300,000.
Of course not every company is the next Apple, but there’s always a darling in the market and as Jim Cramer of CNBC fame likes to say, “There’s always a bull market somewhere.”
Dr. Ashburton
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The FED
The Federal Reserve again took center stage this week as Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed concern over the sluggish pace of economic recovery, even as its Beige Book survey showed modest expansion.
Testifying on Capitol Hill, Mr. Bernanke cited the serious risks to recovery but didn’t offer any specific policy moves to jump-start the economy. His comments came during a week that produced a drop in factory orders and productivity, slowed service-sector growth, and reduced exports.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed to lend a helping hand, again
The U.S. Federal Reserve was back at the center of the week’s economic news, as Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed would extend its efforts to boost economic growth. The continuation of the Fed’s “Operation Twist” is aimed at driving down borrowing costs to stimulate business and consumer spending.
Underscoring concerns about the state of the economy, a major credit rating agency late Thursday downgraded its ratings on 15 major international banks, including 5 of the largest U.S. banks.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
[Editor-in-Chief]
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Consumer Outlook
Consumers are growing rattled at a dicey juncture.
For example, just when manufacturing is showing signs of a slowdown, consumers’ outlook is dimming as lower gasoline prices and tentative progress in the housing market prove to be no match for the limp job market, zigzagging stock market, and high-stakes squabbling in Europe.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Low job growth still plagues labor market
A sluggish labor market remains the main stumbling block for the U.S. economy, which seems to be in the summer doldrums. While there was some job growth in June, the unemployment rate remained unchanged.
And, in other news, factory orders were up although both the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes reported disappointing results. On a more positive note, construction spending increased.
For the week ended July 6, the S&P 500 Index declined 0.5% to about 1,355 (for a year-to-date total return–including price change plus dividends—of about 8.9%).
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed’s next move not an open-and-shut case
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee agreed that the economy continues to show few signs of improving, though minutes of their June meeting revealed mixed opinions on remedies the Fed could use.
Yet, the trade deficit dropped and consumer credit soared, again demonstrating the mixed news that policymakers must consider when deciding how to deal with weak economic growth.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed sees continued sluggish job growth
Efforts to reduce unemployment are likely to be “frustratingly slow,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told federal lawmakers this week. Mr. Bernanke said the central bank continues to consider options for additional stimulus to help reduce the nation’s jobless rate.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Dog days of summer for the US economy
As the nation eases into the lethargy of August, the U.S. economy has also slowed down a tad.
The first reading of U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed the economy decelerated from a 2.0% annual growth rate in the first quarter to a 1.5% pace in the second. In a quiet week, other related reports echoed the tepid pace.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Jobs report brings glimmer of hope
Last week’s jobs report brought some encouragement as it showed higher-than-expected growth in nonfarm payrolls. Consumer confidence also surprised to the upside as workers seemed more hopeful about future business conditions and the labor market.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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U.S. unhampered by slowdown in global trade
Despite reports of weakness in global demand, the surprise increase in U.S. exports in June raised hopes for stronger-than-expected U.S. growth in the second quarter.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Hopeful signs emerge
Plenty of uncertainty reigns over the economic outlook, but hopeful signs appeared in the latest batch of economic reports. Most prominent was the July reading of the index of leading economic indicators, which has increased in 4 of the past 6 months.
Other reports found industrial production, retail sales, and building permits higher and inflation tame.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed stands primed to act
Two reports on housing sales were the most prominent economic updates this week, and they followed the familiar pattern of mixed results.
Weakness in this labor-intensive industry has contributed to high unemployment and slow growth, factors which may prompt the Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] to take further monetary policy action at its September meeting next month.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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August Terminus
The job picture in August was weaker than expected. The glum picture, which included an apparent slowdown in manufacturing, raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (perhaps next week) might take additional actions to stimulate the economy.
Also weighing on the U.S. economic outlook and the financial markets has been Europe’s complex fiscal dilemma: Some relief may have come from the European Central Bank’s announcement of an unprecedented bond-buying plan to backstop the euro.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Will it be “third time’s the charm” … or “three strikes and you’re out“?
The Federal Reserve announced plans to intervene yet again in support of the fragile economic recovery, and the stock markets soared.
But, the Fed also warned that its aggressive campaign to keep interest rates low cannot single-handedly restore the nation to prosperity.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Real estate rebound may be for real
In a light week for economic news, positive developments on the real estate front dominated the headlines. Numbers were up for existing-home sales and new-home construction. In the only other report issued this week, The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators fell slightly.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Confidence climbs but growth slows
U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter and, so far, growth in the third quarter appears uneven. Manufacturing has lost some of its momentum and employment remains a challenge.
Yet, consumer confidence is at its highest in months, and there are more signs of revival in the housing market.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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A New Type of Investor?
Investors are shrugging off disappointing earnings and are now hoping the current period resembles 2009.
But, it’s not a sure bet, and they may end up getting something closer to 2001 instead.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Churning along with hopeful signs
The U.S. economy is expanding modestly, but challenges remain, including rising energy prices and a broader trade deficit.
Excluding food and energy, prices held steady in September, and most Federal Reserve districts reported some expansion, especially in housing.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Housing starts to raise the roof
Consumers, including home buyers, are doing their part to help the US economy.
For example, two housing reports issued this week indicated that low prices, low interest rates, low inventories, and pent-up demand appear to be generating a long-awaited housing turnaround.
Retail sales also showed that consumer spending remains relatively robust.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Growth picks up the pace to a walk
Economic releases out this week painted a picture of an economy on the mend, but far from a full recovery.
For example, while economic output expanded for the 13th consecutive quarter from July through September, the pace of growth was modest and not enough to bring down the unemployment rate as much as hoped.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Mixed signals as the “fiscal cliff” looms following the presidential election
Economic reports issued this week showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly, while the pace of growth in the services sector declined for the first time in four months even as hiring picked up.
Meanwhile, with the elections over, focus turned to the so-called “fiscal cliff,” which will require congressional action on tax policy and the national debt.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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The prices could be right?
Early holiday shoppers may find a welcome present in their stockings, as the latest reports showed a drop in wholesale prices and only a slight increase in consumer prices.
In other news, retail sales and industrial production were down as Hurricane Sandy blew through the northeastern U.S. corridor, leaving challenging economic conditions in its wake.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Growth revives, but will it last?
The long-struggling U.S. economy appears to be strengthening as new third-quarter data indicated that growth reached its fastest pace in nearly a year.
Despite the encouraging news, unemployment remains above historical norms. Economists speculate that the impact of Hurricane Sandy coupled with uncertainty over the “fiscal cliff” could restrain growth in the fourth quarter.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Running in place
Neither a hurricane nor outsize fears of a fiscal free-fall knocked hiring off its lumbering stride in November.
The creation of 146,000 jobs last month was a far better performance than analysts had expected, although it merely maintained the plodding pace of 2012, and job totals for September and October were revised downward.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed ties interest rates to unemployment target
In a major shift, the Federal Reserve this week announced that future changes to short-term interest rates will be linked with a specific level of unemployment.
Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed won’t boost rates until unemployment falls to 6.5% or lower, provided the long-term outlook for inflation remains around 2%.
And so, based on current Fed economic projections, short-term interest rates are expected to remain near zero into 2015.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fiscal fears fray confidence
Difficult Congressional and White House negotiations—expected to continue this weekend—have turned the long-looming fiscal-cliff issue into a nail-biter.
Major tax increases and spending cuts, with the resulting drag on the economy, are set to take effect at the start of the new year unless the political negotiations yield an agreement.
Worries about a post-“fiscal cliff” economy, if talks fail, have undermined consumer confidence, which plummeted in December, even as a report on new-home sales was upbeat.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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The New Year 2013
While economic reports out this week tended to align with expectations, some bright spots included signs of a continuing recovery in the housing sector.
Indicators for manufacturing and services also signaled expansion in these sectors. The unemployment rate, however, remained unchanged amid continued slow job growth.
Markets initially took heart that the “fiscal cliff” had been averted, but sentiment cooled as it became clear that the compromise deal left many thorny issues unresolved, including how to rein in the federal deficit.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Trade gap, borrowing on the rise
A higher trade deficit and more consumer borrowing highlighted an otherwise quiet week of economic news—in sharp contrast to the prior week’s drama over the “fiscal cliff” and subsequent compromise on taxes.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Housing builds best showing since 2008
The housing market showed significant resilience as housing starts surged in December for the strongest reading since 2008.
A recovery in the housing sector is considered key to restoring the economy to full health. With inflation still muted, consumer spending gained ground in December, 2012.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Housing Progress
Reports out this week showed the housing market taking two steps forward and one step back. New—and existing—home sales numbers dipped after strong showings in November.
But, for 2012 as a whole, both home prices and total sales rose significantly, confirming that a recovery’s taking place in the housing market. So despite the December blips, the general trend in housing is positive and this sector is now making modest but positive contributions to headline GDP growth.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Some more bad news
Things aren’t always what they seem.
The report on fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) arrived bearing a grim headline: For the first time in 50 years, GDP declined during an economic expansion.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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When economic numbers collide
There was a figure for just about everyone this week, as those either bullish or bearish on the economy could find a supporting sign.
Main gauges of consumer spending and factory output showed promise, while reports on the service sector and productivity fell short of expectations.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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U.S. outlook positive, but questions about Fed policy emerge
Despite renewed fears of an $85 billion federal “sequester” resulting in across-the-board spending cuts, economic indicators this week showed a positive outlook for the U.S. economy in the near term.
Federal Reserve policymakers debated the virtues of extensive bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, but they agreed that the housing market continues to improve, the labor market is slowly recovering, and inflation is under control.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Income drops and spending rises
US consumer spending rose in January as Americans spent more on services, with savings providing a cushion after income recorded its biggest drop in 20 years.
Today, the Commerce Department said that consumer spending increased 0.2 percent in January after a revised 0.1 percent rise the prior month. Spending had previously been estimated to have increased 0.2 percent in December.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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A week of new highs and new lows
The jobless rate fell to 7.7% for the first time since December 2008, and job growth outpaced expectations. Gauges of service sector activity and capital goods orders also had strong readings, but productivity sagged.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average garnered public attention as that index set an all-time high. As of Friday, the S&P 500 Index, a broader measure of stock market performance, was a tad short of its all-time high of 1,565.15 reached on October 9, 2007.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Energy costs not likely to alter Fed’s plans
Driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, the Consumer Price Index posted its largest increase in nearly four years.
But, stripped of more volatile food and energy, the index’s modest gain of 0.2% over January appears to leave the Federal Reserve room to continue its policies aimed at stimulating the economy.
The Fed may, however, feel more pressure to raise interest rates if the economy—and especially the job market, which is a key focus of the Fed—continues to pick up speed.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Stock Index New High
The S&P 500 index has been toying with a record high in recent weeks and finally slipped past its previous record close (October 9, 2007), as concern eased over the latest flare-up in the Eurozone debt crisis involving one of the region’s tiniest countries, Cyprus.
Here, in the United States, it was a week of shaky gains for the latest round of economic reports.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Consumers restrained at the register
Retailers saw an unexpectedly sharp dip in receipts for March, while members of the Federal Reserve expressed a growing concern over the central bank’s ability to maintain its aggressive monetary stimulus policy.
And, despite some negative economic road signs, the stock market continued its trip into record territory this week.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed’s question is to buy or not to buy?
Amid reports of reduced consumer prices and a spotty job market, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting likely will grapple with the question:
How long should the Fed stick with its easy monetary policy, including the ongoing purchase of billions of dollars worth of bonds and mortgage-backed securities?
While some Fed officials recently have suggested scaling back the program, this week’s reports may give the central bank some leeway to continue stimulating the sluggish U.S. economy by keeping interest rates low.
The Fed’s policymaking body, the Federal Open Market Committee, will begin its two-day meeting on April 30th.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Slow Growth
The U.S. economy displayed growth in the first quarter, based on the initial estimate of real gross domestic product, but GDP fell shy of expectations.
But, the news wasn’t especially positive in other areas, either. On the real estate front, existing-home sales dropped while new-home sales moved forward. Durable-goods orders declined.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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A Spring Job Surprise
An unexpectedly favorable jobs report was welcomed amid signs that the economy is still struggling. The signs, as is often the case, were conflicting.
Consumers were more confident, productivity rebounded, and the trade gap narrowed. But, income growth was tepid, key gauges of business activity slipped, and government spending slumped.
The Federal Reserve, meantime, said it would maintain its accommodative monetary policy, adding that it could always loosen it further.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Major U.S. stock indexes broke records this week
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 15,000 mark for the first time while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index topped 1,625.
The slowdown in consumer credit growth, thanks to fewer consumers pulling out their plastic for purchases, did nothing to impede the stock markets’ advance amid strong quarterly profit reports and the ongoing effects of the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Financial Waves Crashing?
Dr. Marcinko – CEO Paul Singer of Elliott Management recently wrote:
“Printing money by the trillions of dollars has had the predictable effect of raising the prices of stocks and bonds and thus reducing the cost of servicing government debt. It also has produced second-order effects, such as inflating the prices of commodities, art and other high-end assets purchased by financiers and investors.
But, it is like an addictive drug, and we have a hard time imagining the slowing or stopping of QE (quantitative easing) without large adverse impacts on the prices of stocks and bonds and the performance of the economy. If the economy does not shift into sustainable high-growth mode as a result of QE, then the exit from QE is somewhere on the continuum between problematic and impossible.”
Here is the full article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-03/elliotts-singer-bernanke-destroying-value-money-and-uprooting-basic-stability-societ
I fear for the future.
Dr. Nikeldon
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Price declines bolster the Fed’s case
The Federal Reserve’s bond buying programs and ultralow interest rates have had the aim of driving down borrowing costs to kick-start the economy. While even some members of the Fed have argued this may fuel inflation, there was little sign of that happening in the reports out this week.
Consumer and producer prices actually fell in April, owing in good part to a drop in energy prices, especially for gasoline. At the same time, manufacturing showed some slippage and weekly unemployment claims (a volatile statistic) rose more than expected.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit another high during the week ended May 17, 2013.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Market Bubbles
Does the 2013 market looks like 1987?
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=eb1b3a9d-7fef-429f-b1b8-e451ae0819f4
And, is it starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out?
Leslie
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Is the Fed Reviewing an Exit Strategy?
Uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve might begin winding down its bond-buying program created anxiety among some investors during the week.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke emphasized that the central bank would proceed cautiously so as not to stifle the “moderate pace” of the recovery. And, the latest data on housing sales and factory orders showed the economy making further strides.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Disappointed, but depending on the data and day of the week
Collectively, however, the economy let out a big yawn as the picture revealed the same middling growth that’s characterized the recovery from the financial crisis and recession during the past four years.
Gross domestic product (GDP) was up, but the numbers weren’t especially impressive. Consumer confidence, however, exceeded expectations, and home prices continued their steady climb.
On the downside, personal spending dropped. Personal income was mostly unchanged.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Slow and Steady
The economic word in May for Federal Reserve districts and employer payrolls was modest.
Analysts believed that the increase in nonfarm payroll employment wasn’t enough for the Fed to halt its efforts to stimulate the economy through its bond-buying program—at least in the short term.
What do you think?
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Auto sales fuel retail sales
Sparked by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary stimulus policy that’s keeping borrowing rates at low levels, consumer spending on automobiles was the primary driver for better-than-expected retail sales in May.
Nevertheless, investors have been warily eyeing a slow increase in bond yields.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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It’s the Fed … stupid
Global markets slumped this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the central bank’s plans to “moderate the pace” of its aggressive bond-buying program this year.
Mr. Bernanke said that the program might end in mid-2014, if the economy continues to show improvement. His statement came amid reports showing signs of strengthening economic signals.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Prime the job pump
More jobs than expected were added to the nation’s payrolls in June and in the prior two months. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, however, as more people moved from the sidelines to actively look for work.
The upbeat job report was issued as other signs suggested that the pace of economic growth is hardly robust.
Happy Independence Day, America!
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise To Two-Month High
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased to a two-month high last week. Swings in jobless applications are typical in July as auto plants close for annual retooling.
And, stocks soared with both the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record highs, driven by investor relief that the Federal Reserve would keep its foot on the stimulus gas pedal for some time.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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Fed chief seeks to calm
Given the volatility in financial markets triggered when the Federal Reserve indicated it might start to scale back economic stimulus measures later this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this week sought to calm concerns during testimony before Congress.
He reiterated that the central bank won’t begin to change course until the economy recovers further.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Economic improvement in new homes and manufacturing
Consumers bought new homes at the fastest pace in five years. Sales of previously owned homes dipped slightly on a month-over-month basis, but demand was up sharply from a year ago.
The gains in housing and an uptick in long-lasting factory orders are expected to contribute to broader economic growth in the second half of the year.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed stands pat as economy and labor market slowly grow
The economy continues to grow—but not easily—as indicated by the latest readings of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the job market.
At its policy-making committee’s recent meeting, the Federal Reserve announced no change to its “easy money” policy but seemed to suggest some unease with the pace of growth.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Shrinking trade gap bodes well for U.S. economy
Record exports in June and continued strength in domestic oil production provided positive signs for economic growth, enough to have some economists revising the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates reported last week.
And, healthcare and service-sector growth also rebounded while demand for consumer credit slipped from the prior month.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Consumers keep tight hold on spending
While U.S. retail sales registered their fourth consecutive month of growth in July, new economic data showed that consumers slowed their buying pace for big-ticket items like automobiles and home furnishings.
Inflation remained in check as consumer prices were held down by slow global economic growth.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Mystery remains about the Fed’s next move
Conflicting monthly sales trends came from the housing market this week, while a gauge of future economic activity was upbeat. But, the development that likely drew investors’ attention was the release of minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm.
Those minutes, however, left unanswered investors’ main question: When will the Fed begin winding down its massive bond-buying program, a central feature of its unconventional economic stimulus program?
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Conflicting clues about the Fed
Murky summarizes the gaggle of economic reports just released this week.
Of particular note is whether the Federal Reserve will shift gears on its expansionary monetary policy after its policy-setting meeting on September 17-18th, 2013.
The key question concerns economic strength.
While some reports suggest that the economy is gaining traction, disappointing reports on jobs seem to suggest fragility.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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It’s a slow … ride
US consumers seem bearish on the economy, according to weak numbers on spending and sales.
Retailers are looking for more customers as households are more inclined to pay down debt than go to the mall.
Producer prices rose more than expected, though inflation still appears to be in check.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Tapering awaits stronger recovery
Federal Reserve officials decided to continue the central bank’s bond-buying program of $85 billion a month, until they see more sustained signs of progress in the economy.
This week’s reports showed slight improvements in manufacturing and strong sales of previously owned homes.
Leading economic indicators were mostly positive and inflation remained in check.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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The domestic recovery is still on track but without much speed
Economic reports did little to inspire—or discourage—this week. The data weren’t particularly strong or weak, and analysts’ forecasts were generally on target.
The latest estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product was consistent with an initial estimate released in August. Personal spending and income increased in August.
Also, durable-goods orders were up slightly in August, while consumer confidence slipped in September.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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The U.S. Government Closes
The markets seemed to take the budget-related government shutdown decline this week; that started Tuesday in stride.
But, the realization that legislators in Washington were girding for another battle—this one over raising the debt ceiling limit—weighed heavily on many minds.
Bond investors are keeping cool heads for the moment, as rates fluctuated within a very narrow range of about three basis points.
Beware – Debt ceiling ahead.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Debt ceiling deadline looms
With the deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling days away, ME-P readers and investors wait for Washington to reach an agreement on its fiscal stalemate that has led to a government shutdown and possible default of the nation’s debt.
If Congress doesn’t vote to raise the debt ceiling by October 17th, federal Treasury officials have said the country won’t have enough money to pay its bills.
Economists have suggested that a government default would gravely affect the economy and could cause a recession to ensue.
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First Facts on Janet Yellen, too
http://wealthmanagement.com/industry/ten-fast-facts-about-janet-yellen?NL=WM-10&Issue=WM-10_20131011_WM-10_49&YM_RID=marcinkoadvisors%40msn.com&YM_MID=1426887&sfvc4enews=42
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Last-minute deal eases tensions for now
Concerns rose in the financial markets with the approach of October 17—the day when the U.S. Treasury expected to hit its authorized debt limit of $16.7 trillion.
However, an eleventh-hour deal not only extended the Treasury’s borrowing authority until February 7 (averting a possible near-term default) but also funded the federal government until January 15, ending a 16-day partial shutdown.
Although the deal was met with relief, Washington seems just as divided on spending priorities and how to reduce the deficit, meaning investors will most likely have to endure more political wrangling in coming months.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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The job picture gets murky-again!
A much anticipated employment report—the first major gauge of the economy released after the end of the partial federal government shutdown—revealed that the labor market isn’t growing as fast as economists hoped. Although the unemployment rate ticked down in September, job growth was unimpressive.
This weakness appeared to affirm the Federal Reserve’s hesitation about pulling back its aggressive stimulus program until the economy shows more substantial signs of improvement.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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No decision is the Fed’s decision
Even when the Federal Reserve does nothing, it makes news. Investors have been focused on each meeting of the central bank’s policy committee because of an expected scaling back of its massive bond-buying economic stimulus program.
But, the nation’s central bank decided to stand pat for now until the strength of the economic recovery is “sustained” enough to warrant the beginnings of a pullback.
David Edward Marcinko FACFAS MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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U.S. employers shrug off shutdown
Defying expectations that the October shutdown of the federal government would dampen job growth, new employment data showed surprisingly positive signs for the US economy this week.
Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was also better than expected.
David Edward Marcinko FACFAS MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed nominee in the Senate spotlight
During a confirmation hearing this Thursday, Federal Reserve chief candidate Janet Yellen shared her views on the economy and monetary policy with members of the Senate banking committee.
She was reported to say: “We have made good progress (on the economy), but we have farther to go to regain the ground lost in the crisis and the recession. A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases.”
Any thoughts?
David Edward Marcinko FACFAS MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed minutes show the taper tap dance
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s October 29–30 meeting illustrate the policymakers’ desire to unwind their stimulative bond-buying purchases as seamlessly as possible and include details of their decision-making process.
The Federal Reserve’s decisions hinge on an economy that’s neither surging or slumping. Reports indicate a recent slip in consumer and producer prices, and inflation remains in control.
And, retail sales, business inventories, and compensation costs increased, while existing-home sales dipped.
Any thoughts?
David Edward Marcinko FACFAS MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Let the retailers beware – Black Friday
US consumers may be more cautious about spending during the holiday season this year, as their confidence plummeted in November for the second straight month.
Yet, there were encouraging signs—leading economic indicators and the housing market are signaling that the economy is continuing its slow recovery.
David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Resurgence raises questions for the Fed
The bulk of data released this week indicated that the economy is improving with a fourth month of solid job numbers, a large upward revision to the most recent GDP figure, further signs of strength in manufacturing and housing, and a pickup in exports.
And, The Federal Reserve [FOMC] will be weighing whether recent improvements, especially in the job market, are enough to warrant any tapering of its $85-billion-a-month stimulative bond-buying program.
Its’ next meeting is scheduled for December 17–18th.
David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Federal budget deal at hand?
Uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy, which has long worried the financial markets, may have ratcheted down a bit.
The House of Representatives adopted a bipartisan compromise aimed at averting a repeat of the recent federal government shutdown.
Pending approval by the Senate and President Obama, the plan creates a two-year budget framework that raises revenue and cuts the deficit without tax increases, but falls short of the broad long-term spending and revenue reforms sought by many policymakers.
David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Is it Hammer Time?
After months of speculation, the Federal Reserve just announced a plan to slow its purchases of mortgage and Treasury bonds by $10 billion per month, from $85 billion to $75 billion, starting in January 2014.
The Fed also committed to keeping short-term interest rates at near zero until “well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5%.”
Investors greeted the news enthusiastically, with both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting major gains on Wednesday.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Glad tidings cheer markets at 2013 Year End
This last full week of 2013 was marked by an upbeat tone as the latest economic data exceeded expectations and major U.S. stock market indexes hit all-time highs.
The advance for stocks came as investors digested big news from the previous week, which had lifted some uncertainty regarding fiscal and monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve announced on December 18th. that it will begin trimming its bond buying in January while keeping short-term interest rates low for longer than previously indicated. Congress also passed a budget deal that sets federal government spending levels into 2015.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Ringing out the year on a high note
This was an upbeat week for the economy and an eventful one for the financial markets; 2013 ended with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index at an all-time high of 1,848 and 2014 opened with positive reports on manufacturing and construction spending.
New Year’s Eve day also saw the release of an encouraging report on consumer confidence. Why?
The economy showed modest progress in 2013 as the recovery from the financial crisis continued into its fifth year. U.S. stocks, in aggregate, had positive returns for the fifth straight calendar year.
For 2013, the total return for the S&P 500 Index—including price change plus dividends—was 32.39%, its strongest result since 1997. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note rose 126 basis points to 3.04%.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Disappointing End-of-Year Job Numbers
The U.S. economy closed out the year by adding a meager 74,000 jobs in December, falling well short of the estimated 200,000 new jobs most economists had anticipated for the month.
Despite the mediocre unemployment data, the economy showed positive signs of improvement as factory orders climbed and consumers began assuming more non-revolving debt.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Economy Rising?
A snapshot of the economy based on the latest reports shows some signs of strength, but challenges remain. Retail sales posted growth, rising slightly more than 4% for 2013. This was improved from the depths of the Great Recession, but below the pace realized over the last few years.
New-home construction fell in December, but was up more than 18% for the year. A key Federal Reserve report showed modest to moderate growth across the United States, along with encouraging news for industrial production.
Consumer prices again fell short of the Fed’s 2% target for inflation while producer price gains also remained modest.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed stays positive and proceeds with plan
Although the financial markets have experienced turmoil in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee voted unanimously to further trim its monthly bond-buying purchases.
Economic improvement has been uneven, and the week’s news reflected this mixed trend. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew in line with expectations in the fourth quarter and consumer confidence rose.
However, new-home sales and durable-goods orders declined.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Winter weather chills activity
The snow and ice of recent weeks in many parts of the country slowed down more than just traffic, as some economic reports showed signs of slower growth.
The stock market dropped sharply early in the week on weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing data, though it rebounded despite the disappointing employment report on Friday 2/7/2014.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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New Fed chief takes the spotlight
This week featured only a few reports but plenty of anticipation on Capitol Hill, as new Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered her first testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
As expected, she said she would follow the policy outlined by her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, to keep winding down the Fed’s bond-buying program unless the economy takes a serious downturn.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Hard winter – Soft economy
The severe winter weather in most of the country dampened January’s housing and other economic reports even as a gauge of future economic activity rose.
Also, during the week, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-setting committee were released, suggesting that the Fed might reconsider its “forward guidance” on short-term interest rates.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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No thaw in Fed’s resolve to taper
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, testifying in front of a Senate panel on Thursday, said it was too soon to tell just how much of the disappointing data of late were due to winter storms. She added that it would take a “significant change” in the outlook for the economy before the Fed would consider changing course on the dialing back of its monthly purchase of bonds.
The few economic reports out this week were in line with the generally lackluster economic data of recent weeks.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Labor Signs Hopeful?
Despite extreme weather this winter in much of the country, there are signs of a thaw on hiring.
The US added a net 175,000 workers in February, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. The government also released adjusted numbers for December and January that added 25,000 more workers to nonfarm payrolls than previously reported.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Rights of Spring – Hope
The severe winter has presented challenges for the sluggish U.S. economy, which may receive a spark from the pending arrival of spring and warmer weather.
Although this was a light week for economic reports, the impact of winter was evident on retail sales, business inventories, and the Producer Price Index [PPI].
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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New Fed chair makes her mark
The Federal Reserve Board’s first meeting with Janet Yellen as chairwoman was an eventful one: The central bank refined its guidance regarding short-term interest rates and also continued to reduce its monthly bond-buying purchases.
Overall for the week, economic news was mixed, with a positive slant as the difficult winter shouldered most of the blame for weakness over the previous two months.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Spring Confidence
Consumer confidence hit a multiyear high in March, as the latest estimate of U.S. economic growth proved stronger than expected.
However, new-home sales dipped mostly because of the harsh winter weather.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Spring Economic Thaw … Continues
Much of this week’s data pointed to improving conditions in the wake of the severe winter weather. The closely watched March employment report showed that the U.S. economy added nearly 200,000 jobs. Indicators for the manufacturing and service sectors also showed strength.
However, at the beginning of the week, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen commented that while there have been recent signs of steady progress, neither the economy nor the job market are “back to normal health.”
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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On Low Inflation
Despite an unexpected increase in producer prices, the week was highlighted by concerns over persistently low inflation.
Minutes of a recent Federal Reserve committee meeting showed that Fed policymakers are leery of continued low prices, which they believe suggest a slowdown in global economic growth.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Warming Up
As temperatures rise across the United States with the onset of spring, the nation’s economic data show green shoots of growth following a harsh winter.
Retailers posted strong March numbers, while the Federal Reserve found signs of broadening economic expansion.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Home weakness temporary?
While recently released home-sales data have been below expectations, economists are hopeful it’s a pause rather than anything permanent.
The housing market’s recovery has been crucial to the economy’s improvement since the recession. Although traction has been lost, the overall trend is still promising.
Looking beyond real estate, there were upbeat reports on durable goods and The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Up Job Numbers
Employment surged by 288,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, its lowest level since September 2008.
The improving jobs data lent credence to the Federal Reserve’s decision, announced earlier this week, to further unwind its stimulative bond-buying in May.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Positive signs to recovery?
This week’s U.S. economic data releases were mostly positive, as the economy continues to rebound from a winter that saw extreme weather for much of the country.
On the heels of a strong jobs report to start the month, consumers are accelerating their level of borrowing, while U.S. exports are reaching record levels.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Retailers still lag
Despite weaker than expected retail sales data, several economic reports this week pointed to signs of a U.S. recovery.
The combination of a modest increase in inflation, improvements in jobless claims, and residential construction may reassure the Federal Reserve that the economy is headed in the right direction.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Blooming Economy
Economic reports showed some buds of spring this week, with positive trends in home sales and leading indicators reported by the Conference Board.
In other news, the Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes included discussions about beginning “policy normalization,” although no decisions were made.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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GDP dips but confidence climbs
Figures released this week for gross domestic product (GDP) revealed a contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of the year.
The markets, however, have largely shrugged off that contraction, and more recent indicators have seemed more encouraging. Adding to the latest positive signals were an uptick in consumer confidence and greater demand for manufactured goods.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Employment Picture Improves
Much of the data released this week was positive. Although the labor market didn’t generate as many jobs in May as the previous month, the numbers were still encouraging. Also on the positive front, expansion continued in the manufacturing and service sectors.
Although productivity declined in the first quarter according to the Labor Department, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book report, said the economy continued to expand at the beginning of the second quarter.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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U.S. moving in the right direction … Slowly
The light slate of U.S. economic data released this week was generally positive.
Retail sales ticked up, and the buildup in business inventories is a plus for second-quarter gross domestic product.
As for the global economy, the World Bank lowered its growth projection for 2014 to 2.8% from 3.2%. After a “bumpy start,” the bank expects global growth to accelerate; its outlook for 2015 and 2016 is broadly unchanged.
PS: Happy Father’s Day to all!
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Flat Fed?
Amid turmoil in the Middle East and inflationary signs at home, Federal Reserve policymakers sent some strong signals about the future of interest rates and economic growth.
A key indicator of the housing market hit a rough patch while leading economic indicators showed some improvement.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Signs of a second-quarter comeback
Although data out this week showed the U.S. economy faltered in the first quarter, other reports pointed to a fairly strong snapback since then.
Indicators for the housing market suggest it is regaining some of the traction it lost over the winter. Improvements were noted for personal income in May and consumer confidence in June as well.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Job gains exceed expectations
A strong jobs report, expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors, and gains in construction spending and exports point to a rebound in the second quarter.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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A fall finale for the FOMC’s bond-buying program
Federal Reserve officials this week indicated that they will most likely end their “quantitative easing” bond-buying program by October, provided the U.S. economy continues to progress as anticipated.
Meanwhile the Fed has been winding down its stimulus program for several months, newly released minutes from the central bankers’ June meeting mark the first time a specific end date has been set.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Navigating through a sea-change and choppy waters
The financial markets had many factors to absorb this week, including Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, clashes in the Middle East, and the downing of a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine.
U.S. economic data were mixed—the Fed’s Beige Book indicated modest growth throughout the country while housing starts dropped more than 9% in June.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Patchy progress in the “iffy” housing market
Economic reports out this week, which included mixed messages from the housing market, rising consumer prices, and an uptick in durable goods orders, seemed to take a backseat to news about corporate earnings.
Strong second-quarter results, especially from the technology sector, helped propel the S&P 500 Index to new highs.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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The Fed preaches positivity
Despite the stock market slum of the last two days, the U.S. economy seems to be behaving as well as it has at any point since enduring a near-meltdown almost six years ago.
That’s the overall assessment when considering input from the Federal Reserve, the labor market, consumers, and a recent flurry of other data.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Global strains and stress on markets
This week’s economic data continued to signal improvements across the economy—from manufacturing to services to consumer borrowing.
The markets, however, were more focused on developments in a number of hot spots in the Middle East and the ongoing tensions between Russia and the West.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Automakers drive uptick in manufacturing
Consumers didn’t shop much this summer, as weak retail sales revealed.
But, business inventory levels remained steady. Meanwhile, industrial production has strengthened thanks to improvements in manufacturing. Automakers were key to the pickup.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Eyeing an eventual interest-rate rise
Intense speculation continues on when the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates. Minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released Wednesday, revealed the latest Fed analyses. But, no firm conclusions were reached.
According to the meeting’s minutes, further examination of the economy’s progress, the labor market, and inflation are necessary. Economic reports were positive this week.
The market for existing homes and new construction is rebounding strongly, consumer prices decelerated, and The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators pointed higher.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Good growth with some cautious notes
This week’s economic reports included some good growth for the unofficial end of summer.
Second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised to more than 4%, the durable goods new order rate rose to the highest level in its history, and an index of consumer confidence returned to territory not seen since October 2007.
But, a pullback in personal spending, a slower growth rate for personal income, and a decrease in new home purchases introduced a beat of caution.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Weak employment dampens otherwise good data
US employers added the fewest number of new jobs in August than any other month this year. The unexpectedly weak jobs report put a damper on an otherwise encouraging week for economic data.
In global economic news, the European Central Bank lowered all three of its target interest rates.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Consumer spending engine is in gear
Consumer spending habits featured prominently in this week’s relatively short list of economic reports. The news was encouraging for the overall growth of the economy during the third quarter, as both consumer credit and retail sales advanced.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed stays the course on monetary policy
The Federal Reserve affirmed that it would maintain its policy on interest rates for a “considerable time.”
In a statement Wednesday, the central bank also said it would further reduce its monthly bond purchases starting in October, to $10 billion worth of longer-term Treasuries and $5 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Economy seems a Hybrid
This week’s economic reports were neither hot nor cold, like the weather during the transition from summer to autumn. New-home sales were robust in August, but sales of existing homes and durable goods orders weakened.
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20140926&id=17966428
And, the U.S. economy’s second-quarter growth rate was revised upward again, to 4.6%.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Unemployment rate falls below 6%
At 5.9%, the unemployment rate for September dropped below 6% for the first time since July 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000, above economists’ expectations of an increase of 215,000. Other economic news for the week was mixed.
While reports on personal income and spending showed growth, those on consumer confidence, construction spending, and manufacturing noted declines.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Strong dollar makes for a fearful Fed
Faced with expected weak economic growth overseas combined with a strengthening U.S. dollar, Federal Reserve officials are lowering their expectations for economic growth here at home.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Choppy markets despite steady U.S. growth
What a week!
Although the U.S. economy continued to expand, fears of a slowdown in global growth rattled stock markets this week.
Economic reports pointed to sustained improvements in the U.S. labor market and a rebound in industrial production and new-residential construction. Retail sales and business inventory levels were weaker than expected.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Reports showed growth and tame inflation
It was a good week for economic news, and the markets ended on a high note; ultimately.
Inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate, home sales showed growth, and The Conference Board’s Leading Indicator Index was positive.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Fed and consumers deliver upbeat evaluation
Now in its sixth year of expansion, the U.S. economy is at one of its strongest points since before the financial crisis.
The latest real gross domestic product (GDP) data revealed steady growth, Federal Reserve policymakers noted the economy’s progress in their latest meeting, and consumer confidence is at its highest level in seven years.
But, the news wasn’t all positive; durable-goods orders and personal spending both dipped.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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A third-straight drop in unemployment
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in October, reaching a new low since the Great Recession. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000, less than economists’ expectations of 231,000.
Other economic news for the week was mixed. While business productivity increased, the U.S. trade deficit widened.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Global trade pacts took center stage
There weren’t many tea leaves to read for the U.S. economy in this week’s relatively short list of economic reports.
Retail sales rose modestly, as did inventories. But, there was news from abroad with potentially significant impacts for the global economy. And, yet another near market high.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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Rate Expectations
Now that the U.S. economy appears headed on the right track, the Federal Reserve debated whether to refine its guidance on interest rates. The Fed’s word choices about potential changes in interest rate policy get closely scrutinized by investors, and Federal officials discussed recently whether they need to tweak the message they’re sending to the market.
Economic indicators, meanwhile, were generally positive, although industrial production was down slightly, this week.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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U.S. economy shows resilience
After faltering in the first quarter, the U.S. economy expanded at a pace not seen in more than a decade in the subsequent six months, according to data released this week. That performance stands in contrast to many developed economies’, including the Eurozone and Japan, which have been treading water or worse recently.
Other reports out this week, however, which included housing and consumer confidence and spending, painted a more nuanced picture of the domestic economy.
According to Vanguard Services, for the week ended November 28, 2014, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% to about 2,068 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 7%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 14 basis points at 2.17% (for a year-to-date decrease of 87 basis points).
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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For the US – A brightening picture
Reports out this week generally confirmed that the U.S. economy is continuing to expand at a moderate pace.
Job gains for November came in well ahead of expectations, and reports on construction, manufacturing, and the services sector were positive as well. That stands in contrast to the weak or slowing growth seen abroad.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank signaled that it’s readying to provide further stimulus to revive the Eurozone economy and avoid deflation. In recent weeks, the central banks of Japan and China have acted to spur their economies as well.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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Focus on Fed meeting next week
The tone of this week’s few U.S. economic releases was positive, but analysts were more focused on next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting and press conference.
Observers are keenly looking for signals about the timing of a possible interest rate increase. Late on Thursday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $1.1 trillion spending bill that funds most of the federal government through September 2015. A government shutdown was averted when both the House and Senate agreed to a two-day stop-gap bill, giving the Senate time to deliberate on long-term funding.
Oh! And, the market was a mess this week, and down 315 points today.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dow-falls-more-than-300-points/ar-BBgHtWg?ocid=iehp
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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Fed signals patience
A closely watched statement from the Federal Reserve this week set the stage for the central bank to pivot away from its longstanding near-zero interest rate policy and potentially begin to make gradual interest rate hikes in mid-2015.
Other economic data released revealed a drop in consumer prices, an increase in leading indicators, and a slowdown in residential construction.
DJIA: 17,804
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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GDP experiences a growth spurt GDP experiences a growth spurt
The overall U.S. economy grew faster during the third quarter than at any point since 2003, according to the latest report on the nation’s gross domestic product.
GDP is the broadest measure of U.S. economic activity and a barometer of the economy’s health. But, other economic indicators weren’t quite in alignment. For example, both existing-home and new-home sales, which have been inconsistent this year, declined last month. Durable-goods orders also fell.
Stocks continued to set a brisk pace; barring a stumble in December’s final days, they will finish with positive returns for the sixth straight year.
DJIA: 18,053.71
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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2014 ended on a mostly up note – maybe?
In the holiday-shortened, final week of 2014, economic news was mixed but mostly upbeat, led by an increase in consumer confidence.
For all of 2014, which ended on Wednesday, U.S. stocks notched the sixth straight calendar year of gains.
The total return of the S&P 500 Index—including price change plus dividends—was 13.7%, its third consecutive double-digit yearly gain. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 87 basis points for the year, to 2.17%.
As of this afternoon, the S&P 500 Index was down 2.0% for the week to about 2,047. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 13 basis points to 2.12%.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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New hires continue to fuel U.S. economic engine
The U.S. economy ended the year on a high note as employers continued to accelerate the pace of adding workers to their payrolls.
December’s positive job numbers marked 11 consecutive months of job growth exceeding 200,000 as the economy shows no signs that the recovery will recede.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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Oil’s drop – ripple effect
The falling cost of oil worked its way through the economy, according to reports this week on consumer and producer prices and retail sales.
Meanwhile, most Federal Reserve districts reported modest to moderate growth for December.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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ECB makes a bold move
The European Central Bank announced a landmark $1.1 trillion bond-purchase program this week to boost ailing economies in the Eurozone.
U.S. economic reports showed a strengthening housing market and positive leading economic indicators.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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The FOMC is patient and positive
The Federal Reserve this week maintained its positive view of the U.S. economy, although some recently released data were softer than expected.
At the same time, Fed policymakers reaffirmed that they would be “patient” in deciding when to raise short-term interest rates.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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Jobs picture improves
Positive jobs numbers led the week, with U.S. employers adding 257,000 jobs to payrolls in January. The Department of Labor also upwardly revised the number of new jobs added in November and December.
The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey, rose to 5.7%, but that was because more Americans searched for jobs.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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A Pump Slump?
With lower prices at the gas pump, retail sales fell. Business inventories rose modestly. Otherwise, it was a relatively light week for indicators on the direction of the U.S. economy.
DJ Industrial Average
▲ 18,019.35 +46.97 +0.26%
Beyond the home front, attention was focused on meetings of Eurozone finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank. They’re seeking solutions for dealing with Greece’s ongoing financial woes; a portion of its bailout funding package expires at the end of February.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA
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The Fed’s interest rate debate intensifies
The U.S. economy continues to expand at a steady pace, according to minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in late-January. Inflation, which is currently below the Fed’s 2% goal, remains a concern, as does the rocky global economy. Fed officials continue to monitor economic developments closely in anticipation of an interest rate increase.
DJ Industrial Average
▲ 18,138.06 +152.29 +0.85%
The week’s economic news was mixed. Leading economic indicators and industrial production saw increases in January, although both came in slightly under analysts’ expectations. New residential construction and producer prices both decreased last month.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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The FOMCs Yellen Says Not Yet!
For investors nervous about an eventual rise in interest rates, testimony by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen before Congress came as welcome news. She noted that, with unemployment still a concern and inflation remaining well below target, the Fed would remain “patient” regarding rates for at least another couple of Fed meetings.
DJ Industrial Average
▼ 18,132.70 -81.72 -0.45%
Economic data out this week was mixed, with GDP, the housing market and inflation showing some slippage, while consumer confidence and durable goods orders rose.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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Job Number Strong
U.S. employers added nearly 300,000 new jobs in February, beating economists’ expectations. Combined with broad economic growth reported by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy continues to lead the way in the global economic recovery.
DJ Industrial Average
▼ 17,856.78 -278.94 -1.54%
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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Retail Sales Decline
Although the nation’s economic recovery remains on course, shoppers haven’t been stepping up to the cash register recently. Retail sales declined in February for the third straight month, though severe weather may have been at least partly to blame. Sales were still ahead compared with a year earlier. February’s fall also left business inventories unchanged.
In other economic news, the Producer Price Index was down for the fourth straight month.
DJ Industrial Average
▼ 17,749.31 -145.91 -0.82%
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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The Fed loses patience
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said earlier this week that policy makers may consider raising short-term interest rates after their April meeting if they’re “reasonably confident” inflation will return to their 2% target in the medium term and labor market conditions continue to improve.
Ms. Yellen lowered projections for future interest-rate increases based on weaker forecasts for growth and inflation. Other economic news this week painted a picture of sluggishness in industrial output and new home construction during the first quarter.
DJ Industrial Average
▲ 18,127.65 +168.62 +0.94%
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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Not economic Spring, YET!
Economic data out this week was mixed. While new-home sales ticked up, existing-home sales remained sluggish and orders for durable goods continued to slide. The latest reading of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) disappointed as well.
As of Friday, today afternoon, the S&P 500 Index was down 2.3% for the week to 2,059. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 3 basis points for the week to 1.96%.
DJ Industrial Average
▲ 17,712.66 +34.43 +0.19%
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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NOVEMBER 1, 2017
The third quarter was an overall positive one for markets in general, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.5% and International returns even stronger.
This quick turnaround in International returns reinforces why I encourage you to stay invested (and diversified) regardless of whether markets are up or down.
I firmly believe that your ability to reach your goals is much more dependent upon staying focused and invested than anything markets may be doing.
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
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For September 2017
The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, the lowest reading since 2001. The jobs report likely would’ve been even rosier if it weren’t for several historic weather-related events. It’s not only the U.S. economy that’s showing stable job growth—75% to 85% of the world’s economies are at or near full employment.
The current unemployment picture stands in contrast to this fact: Computers are doing more work that humans previously conducted. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show the amount of technology used per unit of production doubled between 2001 and 2015. There’s no reason to believe this trend will slow anytime soon.
So, are millions of workers, including healthcare professionals, about to lose their jobs? There’s little doubt that technology is changing how we work.
In turn, that has huge implications for the economy since labor productivity and consumer spending are key factors to economic growth. One study estimates that 47% of U.S. jobs could be automated as soon as 2025. The numbers are even more staggering overseas.
For example, Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, doesn’t agree with that bleak picture. While some jobs will be automated away, Davis believes the bigger impact will be on job tasks as technology accelerates the evolution of human labor. Workers will be able to “upcycle” their jobs by concentrating on uniquely human tasks. In an irony that will surprise the darkest pessimists, the robots will make our work lives more engaging without shrinking demand for workers.
What do you think?
Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
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