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Superannuation Demographics and LTCI

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  • By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, MEd CMP™
  • By Thomas A. Muldowney; MSFS, CLU, ChFC, CFP®, AIF®, CMP™
  • By Hope Rachel Hetico; RN, MHA, CPHQ™, CMP™ 

According to the US Bureau of the Census, there were almost 49 million people in the United States who were over age 60 in 2001. There are approximately 4,000,000 people over the age of 85 living in the US and there are over 60,000 people older than age 100 estimated as of July 1st 2004. For every 100 middle aged people in the US there at present about 114 persons over the age of 65. This statistic will change as we move forward through time. In the year 2025, there will be about 253 people over age 65 for every 100 middle aged people. Today, there are more than 55 million over age 60.

The Ticking Clock

Beginning on January 1st, 2006 at midnight and every 12 seconds thereafter for fifteen years, a baby boomer will have a birthday and cross over the age threshold of age 60. In the next 30 years, the 60+ age group will more than double, becoming 25 percent of the total population, and will have to be supported by a proportionately smaller workforce.  Research published in June 2005 by AARP (based on data from 2002) estimates that: “In 2002, roughly $140 Billion was spent on nursing home and home health care, with 24% of these costs being paid out of pocket (O’Brien and Elias, 2004)

Baby Boomers

As the baby boom generation ages, their care needs will expand precipitously. Add to this, scientific and technological improvements in healthcare. These very same people will need more expensive healthcare, more expensive custodial care and they will need it for an even longer period of time. Who will pay for this expanded need is not so clear. What is clear is that it will take money and lots of it to make these payments.

Financial Variables

There are only three variables associated with the accumulation or preservation of money:  “Time, Money and Rate of Return.”  Time is reduced to the following two questions “How long until I will need my money?” and “How long will I live?” an uncertainty to be sure.  Rate of return is either a function of the financial markets or the successful maintenance of an LTC plan. Because of the volatility in the financial markets, the “money” question is equally as uncertain.  In order to accumulate sufficient assets a client must ‘tradeoff’ many other alternatives such as ‘lifestyle.”


What is certain is this…financial planning is important.  More important is the implementation or funding of an accumulation strategy or a Long-Term-Care [LTC] investment strategy to overcome these hurdles.


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11 Responses

  1. LTCI

    This insurance product is imploding, as I predicted more than a decade ago, to the ire of many insurance agents who sent me nasty letters, IMs, TMs, notes, etc..


    1. Longevity.
    2. Rising costs.
    3. Gender neutrality.
    4. Current low bond interest rates [unknown at the time].

    Any other thoughts.

    Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA


  2. The next health insurance crisis?

    ME-P readers know that I am not a fan of LTCI; both as an insurance agent and doctor.

    And now, we learn that some seniors with long-term care coverage, which Obamacare doesn’t touch, are getting a double whammy of premium hikes and benefit cuts.


    Any thoughts?

    Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA


  3. Dementia Special Care Units in Residential Care Communities

    • In 2010, 17% of residential care communities had dementia special care units.
    • Beds in dementia special care units accounted for 13% of all residential care beds.
    • Residential care communities with dementia special care units were more likely than those without to have more beds, be chain-affiliated, and be purposely built as a residential care community, and less likely to be certified or registered to participate in Medicaid.
    • Residential care communities with dementia special care units were more likely than those without to be located in the Northeast and in a metropolitan statistical area, and less likely to be in the West.

    Source: CDC/National Center for Health Statistics


  4. Long term care insurance
    [The premium catch]

    An essay by Ken Covinsky MD.

    Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA


  5. New Thoughts on LTCI

    To be sure, physicians and FAs are aware that there is a sometime need to recommend a LTCI policy to clients. Of course, in such cases, it is a good idea to work with a low load provider (or the physician or client’s agent). Yet, most LTCI policies are sold, not bought, and that most statistics used to sell LTCI policies are fear-based and half-truths. Even the Department of Health and Human Services [DHHS] gets into the fear mongering on their website quoting that “about 70 percent of people over age 65 require some type of long-term care services during their lifetime”.

    (http://www.longtermcare.gov/LTC/Main_Site/Planning/Index.aspx ).

    This may be a deceptive statistic as it omits the length of long-term care needed in these 70% of cases. And, it is not 3+ years in all these cases [our estimate is closer to 2.5]. With the recent stamp of approval by the Supreme Court of the United States SCOTUS on the PP-ACA, we may be looking at social LTCI in the US like other social medicine countries and give up on private LTCI insurance altogether. Germany introduced mandatory long-term care insurance in 1995. Japan and France also have a LTCI tax funded insurance plan. And, the poor utilization and growing risks associated with long-term care insurance, are leading a growing number of financial advisors and CMPs™ to recommend alternatives to their clients.

    To be a thought-leader ahead of the curve, the newest aging trend is away from LTCI and toward sheltering at home – living at home and dying at home. Perhaps, this is the way it should be. Dying should not be a for-profit industry.

    Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA


  6. Pros and cons of long-term care insurance

    If long-term care insurance is right for you, be sure to research your options before buying.


    Hope R. Hetico RN MHA


  7. 5 LTCI (Long Term Care Insurance) Selling Points For Medicare Enrollees

    1. The cost of LTCI programs have gone up but so has the out of pocket cost of most major insurance expenses
    2. Long-term care facility costs accounted for more of the Medicare enrollee out-of-pocket spending in 2010 than any other type of out-of-pocket spending
    3. Higher-income Medicare enrollees spent considerably more out of pocket on dental care than lower-income and sicker enrollees did
    4. People who have $20,000 to $30,000 in annual income may have an above-average need for LTCI and other insurance products
    5. The current gaps in what Medicare covers are unlikely to shrink any time soon

    Source: Life Health Pro



    The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College found that fewer people will need long-term care— some 44% of men and 58% of women will need long-term care vs. estimates of 70%—and that those expenses may be less than previously thought.

    Yet – “Few individuals would choose to buy insurance even if they were rational, far-sighted, and well-informed,” the Center concluded.

    Any thoughts FAs and insurance agents?

    Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™


  9. The Realities of Caregiving

    Here are some key findings from the recently released Many Faces of Caregiving Study by the national nonprofit Easter Seals:

    • 66 million Americans provide care to family members with health conditions.
    • One-third of those in the Millenial and Gen-x generations identify themselves as caregivers.
    • 77% of caregivers provide care for emotional or mental health conditions versus physical ailments.
    • The majority of respondents (70%) have not yet had a life care planning conversation with their families.
    • 47% of caregivers surveyed admit to being very satisfied with the care they are able to provide.
    • Over 42 million caregivers provide an estimated $450 billion in unpaid care annually to adults.

    Source: Easter Seals, March 31, 2015


  10. Long-term Facilities Are Cutting Services Due to the ACA’s Reimbursement Changes

    ACA Database – I’m In Hell.




  11. 73% Underestimate the Cost of Long-Term Care

    Lincoln Financial Group recently released the survey “Managing Long-Term Care Risk.” Here are some key findings from the report:

    • Less than 40% of consumers have discussed long-term care planning with their financial advisors.
    • 1 in 10 advisors has implemented a long-term care solution for their clients.
    • 22% of consumers believe they are likely to need long-term care.
    • Nearly 3 in 4 consumers significantly underestimated the costs associated with long-term care.
    • The average cost of a private room in a nursing home can be up to $97,611 a year.
    • For a home aide who provides care for 8 hours/day, 5 days a week the average cost is $42,000 a year.

    Source: Lincoln Financial Group, October 20, 2015


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