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By Staff Reporters
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THE SURPRISE MEDICAL TEST PARADOX
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Classic Definition: A doctor announces to her hospitalized patient that there will be a painful medical test sometime during the following week. The patient begins to speculate about when it might occur, until another patient announces that there is no reason to worry because a medical surprise test is impossible.
The test cannot be given on Friday, because by the end of the day on Thursday we would know that the test must be given the next day. Nor can the test be given on Thursday, because, given that we know that the test cannot be given on Friday, by the end of the day on Wednesday we would know that the test must be given the next day. And likewise for Wednesday, Tuesday, and Monday!
Modern Circumstance: The patient spends a restful weekend not worrying about the test, yet is very surprised when it is given on Wednesday. How could this happen?
Paradox Example: There are various versions of this paradox; one of them, called the Hangman, concerns a condemned prisoner who is clever but ultimately overconfident. The implications of the paradox are as yet unclear, and there is virtually no agreement about how it should be solved.
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